Is the stock market going to tank?

**4matic** · 02-27-2020, 10:01 AM

I’m not an active follower of MA’s. Just mentioned that one because its popular. Bounced off pretty well.

**huckbucket** · 02-27-2020, 10:08 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

I’m not an active follower of MA’s. Just mentioned that one because its popular. Bounced off pretty well.

Yes, but will the cat die?

**goldenboy** · 02-27-2020, 10:46 AM

Originally Posted by skaredshtles

Always shorten the term. Trust me.

Why? The rates aren't even that different now, and they're already so low (I'm considering a refi). Plenty of other things to do with that extra monthly amount- whether it's investing elsewhere, buying skis, or even making extra payments on a 30 year. Serious question, tell me why.

**huckbucket** · 02-27-2020, 11:36 AM

^^
This guy gets it.

**Danno** · 02-27-2020, 01:25 PM

Originally Posted by Danno

I'm no stock whiz, but the fact that we didn't have a rally today after 2 really bad days, spells trouble to me.

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Yup, you're no stock wiz.

:shrug: wiz or not...

**Bunion 2020** · 02-27-2020, 01:51 PM

Funny shit. I closed out my positions in my 401k about 10 days ago to turn it over to a managed account. Its < 25% of my retirement.

To date she has held off putting that money to work. May have to send her flowers.

**Brock Landers** · 02-27-2020, 02:25 PM

Originally Posted by Bunion 2020

Funny shit. I closed out my positions in my 401k about 10 days ago to turn it over to a managed account. Its < 25% of my retirement.

To date she has held off putting that money to work. May have to send her flowers.

Good work! Did something similar in 2008- upgraded jobs and took out my 401k early October 2008. Kept it in a check for the max period (60 or 90 days?) then fixed account until...March 18 2009. Got real lucky.

**neufox47** · 02-27-2020, 04:03 PM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

I’ve leveraging my Netflix stock to buy a house for $2500 a square foot.

How do you like them apples?

Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

#thanksdad

**k2skier112** · 02-27-2020, 04:47 PM

Originally Posted by Bunion 2020

Funny shit. I closed out my positions in my 401k about 10 days ago to turn it over to a managed account. Its < 25% of my retirement.

To date she has held off putting that money to work. May have to send her flowers.

We just got set up with a financial adviser. I told him last Friday I'm concerned things will go South soon. On the 25th he took 20% of my 401k (from the 2 growth funds) and put it into bond funds, all within American Funds Co. There's hardly been a any loss at all for now.

**4matic** · 02-27-2020, 06:02 PM

$INDU closed 1% lower than the January 2018 close.

**Benny Profane** · 02-27-2020, 06:03 PM

Originally Posted by k2skier112

We just got set up with a financial adviser. I told him last Friday I'm concerned things will go South soon. On the 25th he took 20% of my 401k (from the 2 growth funds) and put it into bond funds, all within American Funds Co. There's hardly been a any loss at all for now.

This is how people "lost" money in 08.

**iceman** · 02-27-2020, 06:05 PM

well he sold at a good point

**Benny Profane** · 02-27-2020, 06:11 PM

And will sit there saying, hmmm, maybe I should get back in, I could time it right, I'm smart, hey, haven't lost anything, as it turns the corner. Like early 09.

**iceman** · 02-27-2020, 06:35 PM

My innate laziness saved me last time, I'm gonna try that plan again.

**rideit** · 02-27-2020, 06:40 PM

Well, if they had bought in 09’, and sold again in early February of 2020...

**Bunion 2020** · 02-27-2020, 06:53 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

And will sit there saying, hmmm, maybe I should get back in, I could time it right, I'm smart, hey, haven't lost anything, as it turns the corner. Like early 09.

Typical Benny to spout off without reading.

We just got set up with a financial adviser. I told him last Friday I'm concerned things will go South soon. On the 25th he took 20% of my 401k (from the 2 growth funds) and put it into bond funds, all within American Funds Co. There's hardly been a any loss at all for now.

I dunno, I am pretty happy with the Fund Manager I am using. My guess is K2s Finance person might know a bit more than some Old Ranter on a ski forum.

Love ya.

**schindlerpiste** · 02-27-2020, 06:55 PM

Where does this bring us back to, the summer of 2018?

**Bunion 2020** · 02-27-2020, 07:01 PM

Late October 2019 SPY @ 297 Today's close 297, was 188 shortly after Trump was sworn in.

The market has really been going way the fuck up for no apparent reason for a while now. Yeah this hurts but it was probably well overdue.

**Benny Profane** · 02-27-2020, 07:12 PM

Originally Posted by rideit

Well, if they had bought in 09’, and sold again in early February of 2020...

Yup, 20-20 vision right there. Heh.

**4matic** · 02-27-2020, 07:13 PM

Crude oil fell below a long term floor. It could really accelerate lower from here.

**k2skier112** · 02-27-2020, 07:14 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

This is how people "lost" money in 08.

But I'm down a lot less than if I kept it in the growth funds instead of move some to a bond fund. IME the market and my 401 were 20% inflated. I took the 20% and moved it to a more stable fund. That's why with the recent downturn I'm down very little. And when one gets closer to retirement one should be more conservative. Our funds were at 80% growth.

**4matic** · 02-27-2020, 07:19 PM

Originally Posted by Bunion 2020

My guess is K2s Finance person might know a bit more.

Just luck. Took a chance and won, or, K2 profiled as a conservative investor and now the advisor looks good because they took your advice.

Defining risk is not easy. Few do it well.

**Benny Profane** · 02-27-2020, 07:24 PM

Originally Posted by Bunion 2020

Typical Benny to spout off without reading.

I dunno, I am pretty happy with the Fund Manager I am using. My guess is K2s Finance person might know a bit more than some Old Ranter on a ski forum.

Love ya.

Listen, I dont know shit, right off. So, I'm not a player. I leave that to others here who try to convince us they have it figured out. But, you know, nobody really does, especially 90% of "financial advisors", who, bottom line, are just another leech on everyday Americans money, taking a small percentage after they've convinced you they can predict the future, which, of course, nobody can. This is their time, though, to catch fearful "investors" in their arms, give them a big hug, say, dont worry, you're safe with me, and put them in bonds. Shit, I could put you in bonds, so gimmee some money. But, bottom line, you can do that in 30 seconds on your damn phone these days, so what do you need a "financial advisor" for? The answer is that you're convinced that there's a way to beat the market, in the long run, when there isn't. There's gotta be a way, right? So you dont listen to the John Bogles who have been saying, mix of stocks and bonds, more bonds in old age, leave it there and get back to your life, save your money, spend less than you make, avoid taxation, buy a home and live in it a long time with one spouse. Nope.
The only other way to beat the market is inside information, which is illegal. But profitable, and common. Trust me, your "financial advisor" ain't inside.

**4matic** · 02-27-2020, 07:27 PM

Today’s closing PE is 22x. The mean and average is 15x. Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

**babybear** · 02-27-2020, 07:33 PM

@benny- or a lot of people just don't have the time and/or insight to do it themselves
kinda like a home remodel. sure, you could probably do it yourself, but it takes up all your time, you mess up a bunch and it takes longer than you think bc you don't have the best tools, it's not as coordinated as you hope, it ends up becoming something you hate, yada yada
For people with an interest in in- go right ahead- more power to you to be informed and know what's going on, but not everyone is retired with too much time on their hands...

and like every industry- some people are better/ smarter than others so choose your advisor like you choose your contractor

but, yes, even for those in the industry for a long time- the "crystal ball" is frequently referenced