Is the stock market going to tank?

**406** · 08-02-2021, 03:58 PM

Originally Posted by Lawless

GE had a reverse 8-1 split today.

bummer

**BobMc** · 08-03-2021, 09:29 PM

Plastics into oil sounds kinda sketchy into itself. Buzzwords for pump and dump, you should’ve sold before you bought,

.

I’m getting stymied by decent stuff I want to liquidate falling. It seems good earnings reports are a sure sign of a stock price falling. Weird. I may have to cash out on some positions I’d rather keep, we’ll see.

My 101 shares of GE became 12, lost my ability to sell covered calls. Gonna stay long on them, I still trust Larry to turn it around.

**gravitylover** · 08-04-2021, 02:50 AM

Yeah wtf is with stocks falling after positive earnings? One of mine dropped badly and then issued 18 million more shares tanking it worse and they announced another share offering and down some more. Ugh

**jono** · 08-04-2021, 07:04 AM

Buy the rumor, sell the news.

**JimmyCarter** · 08-04-2021, 07:05 AM

Originally Posted by gravitylover

Yeah wtf is with stocks falling after positive earnings? One of mine dropped badly and then issued 18 million more shares tanking it worse and they announced another share offering and down some more. Ugh

No one cares about earnings, they care about outlook. The market is always forward looking

**Mazderati** · 08-04-2021, 07:09 AM

**CovertM** · 08-04-2021, 01:34 PM

Originally Posted by JimmyCarter

No one cares about earnings, they care about outlook. The market is always forward looking

Agreed, which is why positive guidance has seemed to have more upside impact then great earnings in past quarters...

**4matic** · 08-04-2021, 02:26 PM

How does Roku continue to grow income at this rate with quarterly income at $660 million? That’s like two hours pay for apple.

**4matic** · 08-04-2021, 02:32 PM

Originally Posted by BobMc

Plastics into oil sounds kinda sketchy into itself. Buzzwords for pump and dump, you should’ve sold before you bought,

.

I’m getting stymied by decent stuff I want to liquidate falling. It seems good earnings reports are a sure sign of a stock price falling. Weird. I may have to cash out on some positions I’d rather keep, we’ll see.

My 101 shares of GE became 12, lost my ability to sell covered calls. Gonna stay long on them, I still trust Larry to turn it around.

There’re split options for a while?

**4matic** · 08-04-2021, 02:36 PM

Originally Posted by CovertM

Agreed, which is why positive guidance has seemed to have more upside impact then great earnings in past quarters...

Better than expected earnings is analyst scam. Like underpricing real estate to create bidding war.

**pureantigravity** · 08-09-2021, 10:23 AM

Originally Posted by Hopeless Sinner

I'm starting to get way over my knowledge and comfort level for giving advice. I just wanted you to be aware that what couchpotato is doing is selling plain vanilla, but what they're actually delivering is rocky road.

Once you start "offsetting" you lose the primary reasons these Index funds were established. You, the investor, is now becoming an active manager by moving money from fund to fund. When there is a correction the only place to be is cash, but the hardest part of selling is figuring out when to buy back in. For a buy and hold investor history shows if you stay in the market through the corrections you'll bounce back quicker. If you happen to have some cash and we get a dip buy.

No matter what else don't judge anything by the last year's performance. It was very, very hard to go wrong. The phrase "stupid easy" comes to mind.

Hi Sinner. Just to resurrect this old post for clarification. Suppose I want 50/50 mix and plain vanilla Vanguard. Then I could pick 50% VAB and 50% VEQT. But then I have to manually rebalance. If I use their one click funds, say VBAL or even pick two like VCNS and VGRO, then I could manually balance them but they are also balanced monthly internally.

If I construct a portfolio like the picture here of 2 vanilla funds, then I have to rebalance that manually. I don't care to do that. So the advantage it seems is that VBAL or the other one-click funds are balanced monthly automatically. I'm not sure how much "actively managed" that makes them.. Am I mistaken -- are these "actively managed" or just balanced monthly automatically?

Agreed that actively managed is to avoid here. In the case of buying 2, say VCNS and VGRO the active management is entirely optional and could be done if there is some market reason but not necessary. We are talking 0.25 % fee which is still very low in the grand scheme of funds out there.

Thoughts? Doing a 50% VAB and 50% VEQT seems logical for the lower fees for me ... but is it worth it considering I'd have to manually rebalance?

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**paulster2626** · 08-09-2021, 12:09 PM

Originally Posted by pureantigravity

Hi Sinner. Just to resurrect this old post for clarification. Suppose I want 50/50 mix and plain vanilla Vanguard. Then I could pick 50% VAB and 50% VEQT. But then I have to manually rebalance. If I use their one click funds, say VBAL or even pick two like VCNS and VGRO, then I could manually balance them but they are also balanced monthly internally.

If I construct a portfolio like the picture here of 2 vanilla funds, then I have to rebalance that manually. I don't care to do that. So the advantage it seems is that VBAL or the other one-click funds are balanced monthly automatically. I'm not sure how much "actively managed" that makes them.. Am I mistaken -- are these "actively managed" or just balanced monthly automatically?

Agreed that actively managed is to avoid here. In the case of buying 2, say VCNS and VGRO the active management is entirely optional and could be done if there is some market reason but not necessary. We are talking 0.25 % fee which is still very low in the grand scheme of funds out there.

Thoughts? Doing a 50% VAB and 50% VEQT seems logical for the lower fees for me ... but is it worth it considering I'd have to manually rebalance?

My wife's "safe" investing is all VBAL and it's great. The difference in fees between the more specific ETFs and the all-in-ones is like, tiny from what I recall. Not having to balance or do anything at all really is a plus.

**CovertM** · 08-09-2021, 02:06 PM

RIP to all of my RIOT and MARA calls I sold last week

**AEvospace** · 08-17-2021, 10:17 AM

Ehhhh

**shera** · 08-17-2021, 12:26 PM

Well ARKK is getting a nice beatdown, so I bought some. I heard Burry shorted it, I guess they are all shorting it!

**californiagrown** · 08-17-2021, 01:18 PM

Originally Posted by shera

Well ARKK is getting a nice beatdown

My name isnt Arkk, but the rest fits. I guess i deserve it putting so much into BABA. Maybe i should just keep buying to get the cost basis down? I mean, it has to rise again, right?

I had an incredible spring into early summer and then my account has been on a steady slow decline over the past 2 months.

**Lawless** · 08-17-2021, 01:28 PM

Yeah, I think a lot of portfolios are seeing a beat down today. MARA is currently down 6.66%. That's good luck, right?

Covert, did your MARA calls get assigned last week? Time to sell some puts with that money.

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**Timberridge** · 08-17-2021, 01:59 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Better than expected earnings is analyst scam. Like underpricing real estate to create bidding war.

Exactly. Used to call the real number to beat the whisper number. You need to know the whisper number, not the published one.

**4matic** · 08-17-2021, 05:07 PM

Lumber into long term support around $4.50. What an interesting market for an essential commodity.

A 1% move overnight in $NZD.

TSLA interesting here too with so many cross currents. GM and F both been getting hammered.

Personally, I like the moves China is making to regulate public markets and hedge funds. But, if you are long any of the big names they should be given very little if any growth premium. Its a good time for Tencent and Alibaba to de-lever and mark to market. I’m looking to buy Chinese stocks soon. FXI has 2.1% yield plus growth.

**Hott Butt Mud** · 08-17-2021, 05:25 PM

I read a lot of articles saying don't buy China stocks because eventually they will prevent you from cashing out to USD$. Also sounds like China stocks (at least the recent IPOs) are just straight up garbage.

**Hott Butt Mud** · 08-17-2021, 05:28 PM

eh, my Health Care Index ETF has been straight up CRUSHING it. FHLC +1.03% today. It's been a good way to diversify against all the tech for me.

**4matic** · 08-17-2021, 05:28 PM

Originally Posted by Hott Butt Mud

I read a lot of articles saying don't buy China stocks because eventually they will prevent you from cashing out to USD$. Also sounds like China stocks (at least the recent IPOs) are just straight up garbage.

Didi underwriters:

GS. GOLDMAN SACHS GP.
JPM. JPMORGAN CHASE.
MS. MORGAN STANLEY.
BARC. BARCLAYS PLC. GBp.

**CovertM** · 08-17-2021, 09:30 PM

Originally Posted by Lawless

Yeah, I think a lot of portfolios are seeing a beat down today. MARA is currently down 6.66%. That's good luck, right?

Covert, did your MARA calls get assigned last week? Time to sell some puts with that money.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

Some MARA and RIOT will likely get called away this week. @ $30 & $35 respectively, if RIOt comes back. Could close RIOT for 50%ish now but think I’m ready to let some go. Think Crypto recent runup has softened and would be a put seller back in the high-mid $20s for both.

August smack down all around really. Holding some heavy BIO bags at the moment (ATOS & HGEN). EUA on HGEN will likely be

but been holding for a long while and starting to wonder…

Got some great pumps on RKT and PLTR at earnings and sold calls. SOFI and others shit the bed. Fucking SPACs are dead to me, trying to think of one that has risen far and above NAV?? The ones I hold are anchors to the port.

The ARKK short is interesting and a publicity gem to create a western gunslinger script between fund managers. Fucking silly.

This guy is a douche and comes off as one, but interesting take analysis.

https://twitter.com/ChrisBloomstran/...90474530668554

Worth reading @Shera

ETA: finally got lucky on Lotto tickets…saw MRNA running last week (maybe week before) and saw PFE lagging. Thinking boosters were on the horizon and more forced vaxxes…bought a pile of 8/20 $50 calls (swore off buying calls many times) sold to close today for 500%, but will likely double tomorrow…profit is profit, right???
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**AEvospace** · 08-17-2021, 10:05 PM

What do you guys think about SESN? Oversold in my opinion, from FDA disapproval of their new drug Friday. I bought yesterday low. Should I take profits now, or ride higher?

**BobMc** · 08-17-2021, 10:32 PM

I had to liquidate 19k of my portfolio to begin my ascent into Land Baron. Sold off my GE, CLB, BEP, CCL, NEE, and BBBY. NEE and BEP were the only things that were paying me to hold (of any real money) so my per month dividend harvest wasn’t affected much.

So far I’m ahead on all the sales, I didn’t get out at their zenith, but better than now. Highlight of it all was selling a $29 call on BBBY from the cruise ship and pocketing the $40 when it expired while selling the underlying the minute we touched down in SLC at a daily high and then watching it plunge.

Once all the contracts are signed I’ll return to my regularly scheduled put every penny into the market scheme. For now I’ve been a bit sidetracked.