Is the stock market going to tank?

[SkiCougar]

"Quote Originally Posted by SkiCougar View Post

as of today, if you stayed fully investing in the s+p index, you have made less than 1% from its October 2018 high, that's approximately 10 months.

could turn around tomorrow on some rumor but given august and September are historically the worst two months for the stock market; quite easy to see the return October 2018 to October 2019 being zero."

<picks some arbitrary dates that fits some biased narrative>

Well gosh... gollee... look at that. You're right. So what would you suggest? Bitcoin?

hey, i'm one of those people that are going to vote for trump; so my narrative should be phrasing the stock mkt like he does; despite the drop.

all I was suggesting to anyone who is a dollar costs average and just keep investing no matter what; has now gone no where for 10 months.

I do not suggest bitcoin, just a moving average and doing something like sitting in cash when the moving average is on a decline. yes, you will probably make that money back over time, but you cannot get that time back.

[Benny Profane]

Stupid Trump voters have no money.

[406]

As someone who has been doubling down on the VIX everytime it has inexplicably (to me at least) dropped I would like to say that it is about damn time.

Are you saying you have a VIX fund that you are holding onto long term(>1 yr)? Or just doing lots of short term buy/sell?

[skaredshtles]

<snip>
all I was suggesting to anyone who is a dollar costs average and just keep investing no matter what; has now gone no where for 10 months.

I do not suggest bitcoin, just a moving average and doing something like sitting in cash when the moving average is on a decline. yes, you will probably make that money back over time, but you cannot get that time back.

So you're suggesting people time the market?

Brilliant.

I can't figure out why more people don't do this.

[406]

If the market is dropping due to Yuen being devalued, why is TSN up and APPL down? Don't we export pork/chicken and import iphones?

[Benny Profane]

That question implies that there is some sort of logic during panics.

[4matic]

I do not suggest bitcoin, just a moving average and doing something like sitting in cash when the moving average is on a decline. yes, you will probably make that money back over time, but you cannot get that time back.

I can't really understand what you're talking about but show me any evidence that a moving average system beats the market long term?

OBTW: SP500 is negative since 01/26/2018

[mcsquared]

Are you saying you have a VIX fund that you are holding onto long term(>1 yr)? Or just doing lots of short term buy/sell?

No. Definitely not long term. I have been buying for the past 4-6 weeks and that was too long. Usually hold or cut bait in a time frame of 7-10 days. But it kept dropping despite every dumb thing that Trump does on a daily basis. So kept buying every step down. Averaged down to about $28/share of UVXY. Sold some today.

[406]

^that is what I figured, but was hoping there was something else out there. For me, short term capital gains are not worth the risk after Uncle Sam takes a cut.

[mcsquared]

^that is what I figured, but was hoping there was something else out there. For me, short term capital gains are not worth the risk after Uncle Sam takes a cut.

It is a small percentage of my total portfolio. But days like today I get to feel like a fucking genius.

[Micol]

THERE IS NO FUNDAMENTAL BID* ANYMORE...

*anywhere remotely close to spot, anyhow

what do you mean by this?

if last trade is $1.125

and put in an order for 100 shares at market and the bid is 1.00 and the ask is $1.25

I would most likely get that order filled for $1.25 right...? so what are you saying

[4matic]

Stock futures below 2800. Almost 2% discount. Let the currency war begin!

[LeeLau]

Thoughts and Prayers

[4matic]

US 10y 1.67%

[Benny Profane]

US 10y 1.67%

Which is why US equities will go back up. Like, is everybody going to chase returns in bonds? No.

[Stu Gotz]

As the Chinese curse says: “may you live in interesting times”. Well, interesting times are here...

[4matic]

Or, earnings from 2017-19 were result of tax cuts and code changes. A 10% drop in yoy earnings could easily happen. Plus, trailing returns could revert to more in line with bond yields and also going forward.

20 year Return on sp500 is still about 5%.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[Benny Profane]

Possibly. Also possible the SPX halves from here as people realize the global economic order built over the last 70 years is inexorably shifting into a more regional model with lower aggregate trade & consumption.

So, where else are rich people, who, basically, are the market, going to put their money? Soybeans?

Oh, edit, I forgot, black holes like Uber. But, that's still the market.

[Norseman]

https://www.alhambrapartners.com/201...the-clockface/

https://www.alhambrapartners.com/201...s-and-excuses/

[JimmyCarter]

https://www.alhambrapartners.com/201...the-clockface/

https://www.alhambrappartners.com/20...s-and-excuses/

Yes, China has to manipulate their currency because they're otherwise fucked.

It's tough to paint them as a hapless victim in all this when their fiscal and trade policy has been "fuck everyone else"

[Bunion 2020]

It's tough to paint them as a hapless victim in all this when their fiscal and trade policy has been "fuck everyone else"

That policy sounds much better when said in Mandarin.

[JimmyCarter]

他妈的其他人

[Game Over]

Re-aligning the global supply chain comes with a cost

[4matic]

Yes, China has to manipulate their currency because they're otherwise fucked.

It's tough to paint them as a hapless victim in all this when their fiscal and trade policy has been "fuck everyone else"

China's rules have never changed. We were willing to exploit the lower costs to our advantage and suddenly we're outraged and want a better deal. Blame the people (all of us) who were willing to overlook the problems for profit or price.

[4matic]

Advantage Samsung. China Tariffs will hurt Apple to the benefit of Samsung.