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  1. #15076
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Posts
    1,977
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    I sold RIVN at $142 after buying at IPO. Currently feeling like a made out like a bandit.
    Well, we all knew Rivian's valuation didn't make any sense at the time, but I'm jealous of your excellent timing. I closed out positive, but I think it was only around $120.

  2. #15077
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,495
    Quote Originally Posted by bagtagley View Post
    I clearly donít belong here, but could use some advice. Early last year I put a chunk of the kids college savings into an S&P500 index fund and a target date fund. Iím basically back to where I started today. Iím not as concerned about the youngest, but weíll be using the funds for the oldest in a few years and I donít want to start losing money. Do I pull out and wait for things to stabilize or do I ride out these lows?
    No one can answer this question:

    1. Define your time frame

    2. Define your risk.

    Cash earned nothing over the last year so what was your risk tolerance a year ago? You havenít really lost money in that respect.

  3. #15078
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Beaverton, OR
    Posts
    1,120
    Quote Originally Posted by bagtagley View Post
    I clearly don’t belong here, but could use some advice. Early last year I put a chunk of the kids college savings into an S&P500 index fund and a target date fund. I’m basically back to where I started today. I’m not as concerned about the youngest, but we’ll be using the funds for the oldest in a few years and I don’t want to start losing money. Do I pull out and wait for things to stabilize or do I ride out these lows?
    You are displaying the typical retail investor mindset. If you aren't comfortable with market swings that you can afford to lose over a short term, you shouldn't be in the market. No one has a crystal ball. GLTY

  4. #15079
    Join Date
    Oct 2002
    Location
    Shadynasty's Jazz Club
    Posts
    9,642
    1. 3 plus years for the oldest.

    2. Pretty low. Weíve got maybe four semesters of state school saved up. These investments represents a little over a third of what we have saved.
    Remind me. We'll send him a red cap and a Speedo.

  5. #15080
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,495
    Quote Originally Posted by bagtagley View Post
    1. 3 plus years for the oldest.

    2. Pretty low. Weíve got maybe four semesters of state school saved up. These investments represents a little over a third of what we have saved.
    Sell a quarter or half of the index on a bounce and see if you feel better? Target fund should be ok depending on the date

  6. #15081
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,495
    Iíve gotta think a lot of the selling today is fund redemptions. Puke all over the floor

  7. #15082
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
    Posts
    9,642
    Quote Originally Posted by dan_pdx View Post
    Guy at my work called the top, told everyone he was calling the top and liquidated a big chunk of his 401k. He just bought back in on Friday, said he has 30% more shares for his money. And here I thought technical analysis was all smoke and mirrors...
    Don't mistake luck for anything other than that...

  8. #15083
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    At the beach
    Posts
    16,772
    Investment jong here, but 63 years of real world experience. Investments in something like the S & P 500 will win the race in the long haul. The world economy should crash someday, just not anytime soon IMO, so keep dollar cost averaging in and ignore what the market is doing now.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  9. #15084
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Posts
    10,928
    I love the panic. Iím tempted to bail on buying RE right now and just throw it at the S&P when I think it hits bottom. Even if Iím wrong it could pay off by the time I retire in ten years.

  10. #15085
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Where the sheets have no stains
    Posts
    18,224
    @live2ski ^^^ Not as sexy as day trading, options or Crypt(sic) but you sleep at night.
    I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.

    "Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"

  11. #15086
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Posts
    1,977
    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    Don't mistake luck for anything other than that...
    I know, but he's done it twice now. I'm not trading based on his chart analysis, but I'm observing with interest. Of course, if he could really consistently beat the markets, why is he working with a schlub like me?

  12. #15087
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    11,102
    Itís hardly a great buying opportunity when weíve not even taken out 12 months gains.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  13. #15088
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    At the beach
    Posts
    16,772
    Quote Originally Posted by Name Redacted View Post
    I love the panic. I’m tempted to bail on buying RE right now and just throw it at the S&P when I think it hits bottom. Even if I’m wrong it could pay off by the time I retire in ten years.
    Can you tell me when it hits bottom? I missed it last time.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  14. #15089
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Juneau
    Posts
    1,012
    Here's arguably a worst case scenario (TLDR = Grantham predicts SP550 @ 2500).

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...?sref=5frvVJaF

  15. #15090
    Join Date
    Oct 2002
    Location
    Shadynasty's Jazz Club
    Posts
    9,642

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    Investment jong here, but 63 years of real world experience. Investments in something like the S & P 500 will win the race in the long haul. The world economy should crash someday, just not anytime soon IMO, so keep dollar cost averaging in and ignore what the market is doing now.
    Iíve got other long term investments in index funds that I never look at or touch. This is my first time playing with these things for the shorter term and itís stressing me out. Definitely not cut out for the real deal.

    Thanks for the sanity check, 4matic!
    Remind me. We'll send him a red cap and a Speedo.

  16. #15091
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
    Posts
    9,642
    Quote Originally Posted by dan_pdx View Post
    I know, but he's done it twice now. I'm not trading based on his chart analysis, but I'm observing with interest. Of course, if he could really consistently beat the markets, why is he working with a schlub like me?
    Bingo.

    Twice does not mean it's anything more than good luck.

    *If* you follow along next time, and you lose your ass, don't blame him... deal?

  17. #15092
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
    Posts
    9,642
    Quote Originally Posted by Name Redacted View Post
    I love the panic. Iím tempted to bail on buying RE right now and just throw it at the S&P when I think it hits bottom. Even if Iím wrong it could pay off by the time I retire in ten years.
    Investing in an index like this is WAAAAAAAAY less work than real estate. How much is your time worth?

  18. #15093
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,495

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    3200 is pre pandemic high. Add average annualized at an optimistic 10% puts it around 3900. A decline to 3200 doesnít really affect the long term annualized gain that much. 1550 was the high in 1999 and didnít pass 1550 until 2012.

  19. #15094
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    Verdi NV
    Posts
    10,166
    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    Investment jong here, but 63 years of real world experience. Investments in something like the S & P 500 will win the race in the long haul. The world economy should crash someday, just not anytime soon IMO, so keep dollar cost averaging in and ignore what the market is doing now.
    I made a bunch on s&p. A few years ago. Lived on it while I was unemployed

    S&P. NDAQ. DIA. It’s all good in the long run
    My opinion and historical fact

    And the gambler in me enjoys watching it

    Better than feeding money into video poker machines.
    How many people you see doing that
    Own your fail. ~Jer~

  20. #15095
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Location
    West Coast of the East Coast
    Posts
    7,356
    Quote Originally Posted by bagtagley View Post
    I’ve got other long term investments in index funds that I never look at or touch. This is my first time playing with these things for the shorter term and it’s stressing me out. Definitely not cut out for the real deal.

    Thanks for the sanity check, 4matic!
    Why lock in the loss now? Can you buy in more now, at the same price as when you started? If so, isn't your risk tolerance the same? When that fund is up in a year, you will have that many more shares. That is how I look at my 401K contribution. I love these dips. Now if I was 61 and this heavy in stocks? That would be not so fun.

  21. #15096
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Posts
    10,928
    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    Can you tell me when it hits bottom? I missed it last time.
    Ya, Iíll pm ya.

    I kid. Of course I am not gonna try to time the market. I will wait and maybe start to DCA into some of my accounts.

    And Iíll still buy some RE.

  22. #15097
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Where the sheets have no stains
    Posts
    18,224
    Now if I was 61 and this heavy in stocks? That would be not so fun.
    I am 64 and plan to punch out in September of 24. Currently 70/30 and you are right watching this isn't very fun but it was somewhat predictable, not the when or the how low but the what.
    I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.

    "Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"

  23. #15098
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Paper St. Soap Co.
    Posts
    2,924
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    3200 is pre pandemic high. Add average annualized at an optimistic 10% puts it around 3900. A decline to 3200 doesnít really affect the long term annualized gain that much. 1550 was the high in 1999 and didnít pass 1550 until 2012.
    ^^^This is worth repeating.

  24. #15099
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    11,102

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    3200 is pre pandemic high. Add average annualized at an optimistic 10% puts it around 3900. A decline to 3200 doesnít really affect the long term annualized gain that much. 1550 was the high in 1999 and didnít pass 1550 until 2012.
    This ^^^ x2


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  25. #15100
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    The Bull City
    Posts
    8,617
    This is the (lack of) global confidence response to McTurtle, Sinema, and Manchin shutting down Build Back Better. Trillions of dollars worth of business over the next decade shot to shit just for their shits and giggles..
    Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!

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