Is the stock market going to tank?

**4matic** · 02-27-2018, 10:31 AM

Fed Chair Powell is the least intellectual of all the Fed Chairs I've witnessed. Not opinion on whether that is good or bad.

**Bromontana** · 02-27-2018, 05:56 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Fed Chair Powell is the least intellectual of all the Fed Chairs I've witnessed. Not opinion on whether that is good or bad.

He looks like an idiot. Doesn't seem to get the memo on fedpseak that's been the rule since, what, Greenspan?

**digitaldeath** · 02-28-2018, 11:22 PM

I’d go with intel. They are the federal govt police state apparatus

**4matic** · 03-02-2018, 05:30 AM

Ok. Game on.

**liv2ski** · 03-02-2018, 08:58 AM

^^^Your up early. Getting your shorts ready?

**skaredshtles** · 03-02-2018, 09:43 AM

Originally Posted by skaredshtles

Lol.

Get out.

So... did you get out?

Just call me Nostradumbass.

**splat** · 03-05-2018, 12:38 PM

Pot stocks Canopy Growth and Aurora will continue upward.

**iceman** · 03-05-2018, 01:40 PM

You're saying they will get higher?

**splat** · 03-05-2018, 07:16 PM

Yes. They're growing more all the time.

**406** · 03-13-2018, 11:25 AM

Originally Posted by 406

I typically try to only buy at the 52 week low, but just got some QCOM...lots of talk about the takeover offer of $80/share. Likely not worth the risk with my high short term capital gain tax rate

Thankfully I wised up on this buy and sold soon after at a price that covered fees and taxes. Also glad the government will likely block the deal.

**splat** · 03-13-2018, 08:04 PM

Has a date been set for the plummeting?
Does anyone think the upward trend can go any higher?

**SKIP IN7RO** · 03-13-2018, 08:13 PM

After the midterms and before the SuperBowl, somewhere in there.

**4matic** · 03-13-2018, 08:33 PM

Since 1940 there have been 8 declines of at least 20%. There was already a 10% correction in the major indices. It's probably going to take some problem in the bond and currency market to trigger a bear decline. Although, the tax cuts could trigger a recession sooner rather than later because we are borrowing growth from the future.

**Bromontana** · 03-13-2018, 10:30 PM

Originally Posted by splat

Has a date been set for the plummeting?
Does anyone think the upward trend can go any higher?

It could be a 20 year bull market.

**406** · 03-14-2018, 09:00 AM

My guess, 2 possible issues from the tax cut will cause another >=10% drop by end of the year...inflation and/or rates will go up because USA needs cash. How are they going to get "house holds" into the gov debt funding?

With the U.S. about to sell the most debt in eight years, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin may find himself relying on a buyer base that needs to see higher yields before loading up.

Government debt sales are set to more than double in 2018, lifting net issuance to $1.3 trillion, the most since 2010, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates. With the Federal Reserve shrinking its bond holdings and deficits poised to swell even before taking into account the tax overhaul, all signs point to higher financing costs.

The challenge for Mnuchin is that some analysts predict buying by central banks -- a pillar of support this year -- may fade, in part as international-reserve growth stabilizes. In the view of Credit Suisse Group AG, that will put the onus on more price-sensitive buyers, particularly a group that the Fed classifies as including households, hedge funds, private-equity firms and trusts for wealthy individuals.

“The household sector will have to absorb a significant fraction of new supply,” said Praveen Korapaty, Credit Suisse’s head of global interest-rate strategy. “These guys are asset managers and hedge funds and even households, with a lot of them price-sensitive. They will buy at certain levels, and if yields are low they will maybe not be as interested. That argues for higher yields.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...oing-to-pay-up

**4matic** · 03-14-2018, 09:02 PM

The Japanese 10y Bond had zero trades yesterday. Think bond liquidity is a potential problem?

**splat** · 03-14-2018, 10:12 PM

Originally Posted by 406

My guess, 2 possible issues from the tax cut will cause another >=10% drop by end of the year...inflation and/or rates will go up because USA needs cash. How are they going to get "house holds" into the gov debt funding?

I believe that's what taxes are for.

**Brock Landers** · 03-14-2018, 10:18 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

The Japanese 10y Bond had zero trades yesterday. Think bond liquidity is a potential problem?

The Japanese government owns literally all of the 10y jgb. Bought all of them as part of their QE. So not a liquidity issue.

Otherwise, general bond liquidity right now is fairly good.

**4matic** · 03-15-2018, 12:50 AM

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

The Japanese government owns literally all of the 10y jgb. Bought all of them as part of their QE. So not a liquidity issue.

Otherwise, general bond liquidity right now is fairly good.

Borrow from your left pocket and put it in your right. Abenomics. You don’t see anything wrong with a government issuing and owning all its own debt? What’s the point of the debt?

**Brock Landers** · 03-16-2018, 07:16 PM

I don't see that as a problem in itself. The problem is in why- deflation and absolutely no growth in 25 years. So the govt owns it's debt...why is that alone a problem?

The "why" is just to combat deflation which is a huge problem and possibility in Japan. Abenomics is just very aggressive QE because past measures haven't worked. The biggest thing though- Abenomics on its own won't work. It's only a stopgap while they work on fiscal and structural reform to offset some of the issues the economy has with demographics and tradition. Especially for an export driven economy, it's imperative they devalue the yen.

**4matic** · 03-22-2018, 09:31 AM

24190 DJIA is the lowest weekly close since November. 60 points away right now. Should be some support here because of that. If we drop through here with any momentum look out below. Another 4% could happen in a hurry.

**F#*k you cat** · 03-22-2018, 02:27 PM

Seriously - who is contemplating pulling everything out before the real bottom drops out? Have any of you financial wizards discussed this with your planners?
Basically hedging against a serious drop. Having cash now vs stuck loosing half like last time in the recession of 2008.

**iceman** · 03-22-2018, 02:31 PM

I keep asking that and keep hearing: Earnings - good. Unemployment-good. Inflation-good. Fed-good. Tax plan will benefit business. "Sit tight" is what I'm told.

A little white-knucklish today though. I felt kinda sick for months last time around but sat tight and it eventually worked out, so...who the fuck knows?

**Cono Este** · 03-22-2018, 02:42 PM

Ups and downs iceman, but unless you have 10mm+, or more income to earn, you have to at least lock in your retirement income after a run like we’ve had the last 5 yrs.

My projection stands that we give back all the trump gains, and then maybe some extra.

Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

**4matic** · 03-22-2018, 02:43 PM

$SPX daily chart is breaking down below support off a double top. There is support on the weekly chart in increments but the monthly is projecting 2200. A 10% daily swing in the next few days would not surprise me.

Last Friday was a quarterly expiration that has clearly changed momentum trend.