Is the stock market going to tank?

[J. Barron DeJong]

How is the bond market affecting those getting ready to collect, or already collecting, on their 401k? Is it correct to assume that a lot of those people took a pretty big hit?

Looking at my current portfolio as a youngin, it seems locking things up via bond investments come later, closer to retirement. Am I off with this line of thinking?


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For allocation for your age, you could do a heck of a lot worse than just matching the Vanguard target date fund for your age/retirement date.

Yes, generally more stocks when young, more bonds when older.

[4matic]

Some bond funds are down 10-15%.

I bet the salesman didn’t explain how jacked these thing were.

BOND has been smoked.

I’m long BOND @93.65. No stop. Got one .25 dividend. It’s 16% cash with 5 yr duration. At one time it was the worlds largest fund (PTTRX)

Yields on the move again tonight.

[BobMc]

Picked up 100 more shares of IPOOF on Monday, had 90 already. Cheap Canadian tar sands play.

Put in an order to sell an $11.50 June 10 put on ET for tomorrow. Trying to get $52 for it, well within day range. I want more of it anyways and would welcome the $10.98 entry or keeping the premium. They crushed earnings yesterday and raised guidance. They’ve probably got the most room to run in the midstream gang, if management can keep from being reckless. Although, in this environment perhaps reckless will pay off?

Between yesterdays surge and today’s retraction I still came out ahead. Not that I give a fuck, as I’ve said, I could lose it all and not worry. I don’t understand why people are scared with money, it’s only money… For most of my life I haven’t had any, you get used to it.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m trying my best to accumulate it, but it isn’t the end all.

[rod9301]

How is the bond market affecting those getting ready to collect, or already collecting, on their 401k? Is it correct to assume that a lot of those people took a pretty big hit?

Looking at my current portfolio as a youngin, it seems locking things up via bond investments come later, closer to retirement. Am I off with this line of thinking?


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Bonds serve the purpose of going up in a recession, while your stocks go down. Then you rebalance, ie sell bonds and buy stocks.

This will happen this time too.

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[billyk]

Re bonds:
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/ans...p-bond-prices/

There’s an inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates. As interest rates rise, the value of the bond falls. It is counterintuitive, but explaned in the link above.

So, we are coming off one of the longest periods of low rates and lowest rates I can remember personally. So bond prices were at all time highs. They’re pretty much guaranteed to fall as interest rates continue to rise, which the fed has told us it is determined to do until inflation is under control.

I wouldn’t (and won’t) buy them until it looks like rates have topped out, and a rate drop seems possible.

[4matic]

I’ve owned Pimco Total Return (BOND) a few times. As interest rates rise,unlike an individual bond, payout goes up. I expect yield well above 4% in months ahead when they put more cash to work and increase duration.

[billyk]

If I were ambitious and had skills, I would post graphs of BOND and/or BND vs interest rate to show how well it correlates to the inverse relationship mentioned in that investopedia link I posted earlier.

But just pull it up on your phone and look what’s happened since last November.

[Cono Este]

Will we close the gap?


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[4matic]

Will we close the gap?


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I wish it would…thrice down and not yet so not optimistic. Bonds working inverse to stocks. As long as that is the trend no rally. 3% now short term support for the 5y.

No help from USD and Crude either

[4matic]

If I were ambitious and had skills, I would post graphs of BOND and/or BND vs interest rate to show how well it correlates to the inverse relationship mentioned in that investopedia link I posted earlier.

But just pull it up on your phone and look what’s happened since last November.

Like I said. The payout on BOND will increase every month for perhaps years as maturity rolls off even if the price goes down or stays flat. That’s why I bought it. For yield.

[sirbumpsalot]

Like I said. The payout on BOND will increase every month for perhaps years as maturity rolls off even if the price goes down or stays flat. That’s why I bought it. For yield.

Meanwhile the value of the held bonds fall...reducing NAV and wiping out the yield and then some....

[4matic]

Meanwhile the value of the held bonds fall...reducing NAV and wiping out the yield and then some....

It doesn’t wipe out the interest yield.

I don’t care about 10% down in principal for a ten year income investment. The difference is the holdings have interest yield so it’s not like a dividend paid out of equity. I doubt the fund sells holdings at a loss.

I set up my portfolio to have yield, not growth. As long as the yield holds I’m good.

[4matic]

I’m down 1.6% on my BOND allocation with a rising yield. My call is we’re closer to the high in rates. I could be wrong but the more I’m wrong the more my payout goes up. That’s how BOND works. Especially with the duration and composition of the portfolio. 16% cash?

[4matic]

The payout starts going up next month. Based on where rates were in 2018 I expect my payout to increase by almost $1 a share by next year.


May 05, 2022$0.250OrdinaryDividend
Apr 06, 2022$0.240OrdinaryDividend
Mar 04, 2022$0.230OrdinaryDividend
Feb 04, 2022$0.230OrdinaryDividend
Jan 04, 2022$0.230OrdinaryDividend
Dec 06, 2021$0.230OrdinaryDividend
Nov 04, 2021$0.230OrdinaryDividend
Oct 06, 2021$0.240OrdinaryDividend
Sep 07, 2021$0.240OrdinaryDividend
Aug 05, 2021$0.240OrdinaryDividend
Jul 07, 2021$0.240OrdinaryDividend
Jun 04, 2021$0.240OrdinaryDividend
May 06, 2021$0.240OrdinaryDividend
Apr 07, 2021$0.230OrdinaryDividend
Mar 04, 2021$0.230OrdinaryDividend
Feb 04, 2021$0.230OrdinaryDividend
Jan 05, 2021$0.230OrdinaryDividend
Dec 04, 2020$0.230OrdinaryDividend
Nov 05, 2020$0.230OrdinaryDividend
Oct 06, 2020$0.230OrdinaryDividend
Sep 04, 2020$0.230OrdinaryDividend
Aug 06, 2020$0.244OrdinaryDividend
Jul 07, 2020$0.250OrdinaryDividend
Jun 04, 2020$0.240OrdinaryDividend
May 06, 2020$0.260OrdinaryDividend
Apr 06, 2020$0.280OrdinaryDividend
Mar 05, 2020$0.290OrdinaryDividend
Feb 06, 2020$0.290OrdinaryDividend
Jan 03, 2020$0.290OrdinaryDividend
Dec 05, 2019$0.290OrdinaryDividend
Nov 06, 2019$0.300OrdinaryDividend
Oct 04, 2019$0.300OrdinaryDividend
Sep 06, 2019$0.300OrdinaryDividend
Aug 06, 2019$0.310OrdinaryDividend
Jul 05, 2019$0.300OrdinaryDividend
Jun 06, 2019$0.300OrdinaryDividend
May 06, 2019$0.300OrdinaryDividend
Apr 04, 2019$0.310OrdinaryDividend
Mar 06, 2019$0.320OrdinaryDividend
Feb 06, 2019$0.320OrdinaryDividend
Jan 03, 2019$0.300OrdinaryDividend
Dec 06, 2018$0.320OrdinaryDividend
Nov

[sirbumpsalot]

I’m down 1.6% on my BOND allocation with a rising yield. My call is we’re closer to the high in rates. I could be wrong but the more I’m wrong the more my payout goes up. That’s how BOND works. Especially with the duration and composition of the portfolio. 16% cash?

I'll let the chart do the talking:

[4matic]

I'll let the chart do the talking:

You guys are dense. I bought it last week. I know what a bond chart looks like. JFC.

If the payout goes back to .32, which it will, my effective yield is over 5%.

[4matic]

Will we close the gap

I remember March 2020. We got ever so close to the Trump gap so maybe it doesn’t get filled.

[sirbumpsalot]

You guys are dense. I bought it last week. I know what a bond chart looks like. JFC.

Not knocking you for your attempt to time the bottom of the bond market...no one, including me, has a crystal ball and you could very well be right. However you seem to be indicating a very simplistic view of BOND and bond funds in general....they do not BUY AND HOLD. They trade in multiple fixed income instruments in many different countries and many times are FORCED to sell prior to maturity to meet redemptions, debt obligations, expenses, and debt defaults. The NAV is posted for a reason and the stock will not trade far from it.

[4matic]

I know what I own. 16% cash covers a lot of redemptions. Could 5 yr note rate go to 5%? Sure. I’m betting it won’t.

[Cono Este]

I like bond here. But I’d wait a wee bit longer for capitulation and aim for 5%.

Disclaimer. This is opinion related to financial mkts not Poly ass.

But the whole world is falling apart. We’re closer to nuclear annihilation than ever before in our lifetime. We’re broke. We’re divided. And people are ready to strap explosives to their chest. World leadership is non existent, and socialists are being put in office in key countries we rely on for basic commodities.

We’ve basically gone back in time 40yrs.

Remember sell offs like 2003? For what? Iraq invasion?? Okay, this should be much worse.


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[4matic]

Don’t like unresolved links. Delete

[4matic]

The 5 year note is unchanged since April 20. Interest rate move is on the long end and the curve.

[Ski220]

How is the bond market affecting those getting ready to collect, or already collecting, on their 401k? Is it correct to assume that a lot of those people took a pretty big hit?

Looking at my current portfolio as a youngin, it seems locking things up via bond investments come later, closer to retirement. Am I off with this line of thinking?

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My $0.02 in retirement.

Yield is great. You need some income.
In a growth environment, growth will out strip yield.
At even a 20% hit now, your way ahead from 12 years ago.
DRIP your returns.
Starting to buying into an actively managed CEF bond fund now might be prudent (Muni or short duration).
Although IMO we're in for some massive inflation ahead.

In my personal situation, retiring during a low interest rate environment was financially unfortunate.
Basically the company buys a fixed rate annuity for my payout. The calculated payout was tied to the current
interest rate at that time. A higher interest rate at retirement would have yielded a higher monthly payout.

[dschane]

4matic's strategy makes sense to me, though I also understand the desire to wait to deploy cash given the current situation, i.e., the upcoming "quantitative tightening" - the passive shrinking of the Fed's $9T balance sheet over three years and during a period when it is planning to also raise interest rates, at least for the next 9 months.

We often hear that the market has "already priced in" those rate increases. In this situation, I personally am skeptical about that.

[4matic]

Thanks. I thought about dollar cost averaging but all my positions pay a monthly dividend so waiting when the goal was income generation didn’t make sense. Im wrong, early, or both. Im confident in the income and don’t need the growth as unsettling as it is.