Is the stock market going to tank?

[LeeLau]

What a bloodbath. I shorted SNAP premarket and promptly panic-covered for 5% gain whereupon it tanked another 18% throughout the day. Been so burned by shorting the past few years that it's hard to get the old instincts back. Bob - did you see that cruise lines tanked again? Glad we're out of that gongshow

Only my energy purchases are green and even then I fear what 4matic said; everyone is piling into that so perhaps creating yet another bubble

[BobMc]

What a bloodbath. I shorted SNAP premarket and promptly panic-covered for 5% gain whereupon it tanked another 18% throughout the day. Been so burned by shorting the past few years that it's hard to get the old instincts back. Bob - did you see that cruise lines tanked again? Glad we're out of that gongshow

Only my energy purchases are green and even then I fear what 4matic said; everyone is piling into that so perhaps creating yet another bubble

Lol, if you own 100 shares of CCL stock you get $100 on board credit on every cruise you go on. I’m a member of various Carnival cruising facebook groups. Been comical watching all the people advocating buying the now “cheap” shares the last month or so. Nobody ever mentioning how much debt they took on. People losing $800 to get $100 in on board credit. Heh. I might be a buyer again at sub $9.

I’m still waiting for my free lunch.

[dschane]

Of all the storied comebacks, I still don't understand why anyone was buying cruise line stocks at any point since March 2020 through the present.

3/20 - 12/21 is obviously one for the storybooks.

[4matic]

XOM does have the large nat gas exposure so it can continue to run ahead as long as NG stays strong. Crude gets a bid on any weakness so likely higher. You never get that much time to sell a top.

T within a shout of a 52 week high. Hope you all sold that dog spin-off.

[4matic]

SNAP exposed that there just isn’t enough global ad dollars and growth In Those dollars to support the valuation on any of the social stocks.

Another thing I’m wondering about is if indexing and sector funds reached a tipping point? Will active management finally have its day?

Sentiment on bonds might be turning. 2y had a big ramp down.

[BobMc]

Of all the storied comebacks, I still don't understand why anyone was buying cruise line stocks at any point since March 2020 through the present.

3/20 - 12/21 is obviously one for the storybooks.

I bought 100 shares of CCL on 4/09/2020 @ $12.00 per. I sold them 8/5/2021 for $22.38 per. I sold two calls on it during that time and bought them both back for a combined profit of $284. It worked out pretty well.

[LeeLau]

I bought 100 shares of CCL on 4/09/2020 @ $12.00 per. I sold them 8/5/2021 for $22.38 per. I sold two calls on it during that time and bought them both back for a combined profit of $284. It worked out pretty well.

My average was a bit lower. But I had 2 years selling calls on them so got paid 12% pa to wait and ended up liquidating them via calls in the mid 20s. Seemed like a worthwhile rebound play at the time and a way to be long the boomer economy

[warthog]

Lol, if you own 100 shares of CCL stock you get $100 on board credit on every cruise you go on. I’m a member of various Carnival cruising facebook groups. Been comical watching all the people advocating buying the now “cheap” shares the last month or so. Nobody ever mentioning how much debt they took on. People losing $800 to get $100 in on board credit. Heh. I might be a buyer again at sub $9.

I’m still waiting for my free lunch.

I sell products to the cruise industry. The timeline they have on ship refits is nuts. Like a 4 year waiting list. There are only a couple dry docks worldwide that can do them. Nobody loses their spot in line, so while shit was blowing up, these companies HAVE to lay out tons of cash to update ships that may not get used for a long time. It is amazing business from our end, but must be a nightmare on theirs. It will come back strong though, eventually. People love their floating buffets.

[LeeLau]

I sell products to the cruise industry. The timeline they have on ship refits is nuts. Like a 4 year waiting list. There are only a couple dry docks worldwide that can do them. Nobody loses their spot in line, so while shit was blowing up, these companies HAVE to lay out tons of cash to update ships that may not get used for a long time. It is amazing business from our end, but must be a nightmare on theirs. It will come back strong though, eventually. People love their floating buffets.

What was interesting to me was that the Capex on the ships was high but so were the maintenance costs. Once I figured that in the best case I could see for price was low 30s for CCL ( including dilution because they did equity financing at lower prices to keep afloat)

[bad dancer]

FIFY

It will come back strong though, eventually. People love their floating toilets.

[406]

So hit a bear market for a few minutes and now nothing but up, crazy.

[LeeLau]

So hit a bear market for a few minutes and now nothing but up, crazy.

Dead cat imo.

Shorted SNAP bounce

[skaredshtles]

Dead cat imo.

Shorted SNAP bounce

This is also what I'm thinking... though what the fuck do I know? This market does seem quite loco.

[4matic]

10y looks like it can go back to 2.50% with just a little nudge. That big spike in the yield curve this month is going to revert.

[RoooR]

So hit a bear market for a few minutes and now nothing but up, crazy.

Bear markets can have insane rallies. In 2000 the nasdaq rallied 30% multiple times before bottoming out.

[LeeLau]

Added SNAP short on morning spike. Started ENOB short. Sold XOM 100 calls. I'm ready to take that XOM profit if it happens

[4matic]

So much for the bond rally into new month. 10y above 3% will be big trouble

[Brock Landers]

Why trouble above 3?

[4matic]

Why trouble above 3?

Psychological pivot. Chart resistance.

[NakedShorts]

If you are relying on traditional media channels here in this market prepare to be band sawed in half.

I suggest some light hearted reading.

https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/#sthash.WxhVDEGi.dpbs

[4matic]

/\zerohedge clone

[NakedShorts]

TheFly is much different then the Hedge.

If realizing that BAD shit happens everyday and may hurt your feelings then you could also follow John

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/category/comment/

He runs a clean and tidy shop.

[4matic]

Hussman legit

[BobMc]

Added SNAP short on morning spike. Started ENOB short. Sold XOM 100 calls. I'm ready to take that XOM profit if it happens

I sold a $97 XOM June 10 call for $106 on 5/23, been up and down on it. Hoping to be assigned, I still have another 100 shares long that if it hits $99 or so again I’m going to sell a $100 call for as much as I can get within 29 days. Like you, I want the profit. I may let the market decide whether I get a drift boat, assigned=buy one, keep premium=keep money in.

I’m up $387 on the year selling and buying calls and puts. Still have an ET put out there as well as the XOM call. ET is an 11.50 June 10, sold it for $51.34 (after fees). I’ve been up on that the whole time and it looks like I’ll keep the premium, though I’d rather have the shares at $10.98.

I’m up a good chunk since May 11, back up to either well and septic or sweet ass driftboat.

I’m leaning towards drift boat, thinking of this…

https://stealthcraftboats.com/stealthcraft/aftermath/

With the artwork of my uncle on it…

https://stealthcraftboats.com/stealt...artist-series/

I like delving in the stocks to build a retirement, but I also like to have some fun now and then…

[JimmyCarter]

So if the SEC is really eliminating PFOF, Robinhood is a zero right?