Is the stock market going to tank?

**Yossarian** · 05-15-2007, 09:53 AM

Not the bond market. Not the private equity market. Not the real estate market. Not the dollar. Nor pig futures. Nor gold prices. (Although they may all be related, or not.) Nor anything else.

And not a small 100-200 point correction/gains taking. And not "Is the stock market overvalued?" Nor any other possible similar question (although they may all be related, or not).

But: Is the US, stock, market (let assume for sake of discussion the DJIA in particular) going to TANK in the next six months?

Discuss.

Or not.

**lemon boy** · 05-15-2007, 09:55 AM

depends!

**Woodsy** · 05-15-2007, 09:55 AM

you are both not stocky enough to talk tacks in here

**lemon boy** · 05-15-2007, 09:56 AM

clete's pretty stocky anymore.

**Yossarian** · 05-15-2007, 09:57 AM

can't argue that!

**Woodsy** · 05-15-2007, 09:58 AM

Originally Posted by Yossarian

can't argue that!

rally?
deuce, deuce & 1/2?

**Yossarian** · 05-15-2007, 09:58 AM

P.S. I say yes. DJIA will be below 13,000 again sometime this summer.

**Buster Highmen** · 05-15-2007, 09:59 AM

I'm not sure about that, but, fuck doggies, everything is ridiculously expensive. Gas, food, housing, really basic stuff is sucking up a lot of resources. What inpact will that have on stock investing? Who knows. I doubt stuff like the national debt or trade deficits with China affect most people way of thinking or economic view, but the skyrocketing day to day costs are going to have some impact somewhere.

Consider that a factor?

**iceman** · 05-15-2007, 09:59 AM

I've got a lot bet on "no" so I'm gonna say "yes".

**Buster Highmen** · 05-15-2007, 09:59 AM

P.S. hi Yoss, nice to see your typings.

**Yossarian** · 05-15-2007, 10:00 AM

Originally Posted by iceman

I've got a lot bet on "no" so I'm gonna say "yes".

I knew I could count on you for something. I was really just wondering what you were doing, so I could bet against you.

**Arty50** · 05-15-2007, 10:02 AM

Originally Posted by Yossarian

But: Is the US, stock, market (let assume for sake of discussion the DJIA in particular) going to tank (let's say, drop more than 500 points) in the next six months?

No, but the sky (you know, that big blue thing above your head) is going to fall (as in drop, nose-dive, plummet, tumble, or for the geeks...accelerate at 9.8m/s^2).

**iceman** · 05-15-2007, 10:04 AM

Originally Posted by Yossarian

I knew I could count on you for something. I was really just wondering what you were doing, so I could bet against you.

You could probably make a fortune by shorting my portfolio.

**Buster Highmen** · 05-15-2007, 10:05 AM

Originally Posted by Arty50

No, but the sky (you know, that big blue thing above your head) is going to fall (as in drop, nose-dive, plummet, tumble, or for the geeks...accelerate at ).

That's -9.8m/s^2, sir.

**Yossarian** · 05-15-2007, 10:06 AM

Originally Posted by iceman

You could probably make a fortune by shorting my portfolio.

I doubt I'll ever have the balls to go short in a big way, but the idea of shorting you IS enticing.

We need an Iceman Fund, so we can all bet on your portfolio performance.

**Buster Highmen** · 05-15-2007, 10:06 AM

Originally Posted by iceman

You could probably make a fortune by shorting my portfolio.

Whose shorts?

**Buster Highmen** · 05-15-2007, 10:07 AM

Ever read Richard Russell? Man, talk about Chicken Little. The guy is constantly raving about a financial Ragnarok.

**Woodsy** · 05-15-2007, 10:09 AM

ask foggy
and the only shorts I take are the ones that i wear;
aint taking no shorts no more sooo....

**Yossarian** · 05-15-2007, 10:09 AM

Mind you, I'm not saying the DJIA goes below 12k, which, may I remind you, was where it was NOT that long ago.

I'm just asking if 13.5 looks crazy right now.

**mr_gyptian** · 05-15-2007, 10:11 AM

Originally Posted by Buster Highmen

I'm not sure about that, but, fuck doggies, everything is ridiculously expensive. Gas, food, housing, really basic stuff is sucking up a lot of resources. What inpact will that have on stock investing? Who knows. I doubt stuff like the national debt or trade deficits with China affect most people way of thinking or economic view, but the skyrocketing day to day costs are going to have some impact somewhere.

Consider that a factor?

I do consider that a factor. but Bill Gross has been considering that a factor for quite some time. since 2002, I think. for what ever reason, things keep getting cheaper in real dollar terms.

are we learning from the late 90s? The 7 percent gain in the DJIA would have seemed downright pedestrian back then and almost no one was giving the doom and gloom.

I guess the companies driving this are actually making money, unlike the tech/telecom boomers.

not only that, but imagine the DJIA's gain if companies like GM weren't in the index over tha past five years.

**Yossarian** · 05-15-2007, 10:12 AM

Despite the fact that WalMart, which pretty much IS the retail world anymore, is predicting off sales in Q2?
They've proven to be awfully good at knowing their customer. Or maybe they're just sandbagging?

It IS a good point, these companies today are making real bucks, unlike the tech boom.

**Tippster** · 05-15-2007, 10:17 AM

Would the DJIA going below 13k really matter (your 500 pt. drop, Cletus?) It only reflects THOSE stocks, after all, and only reflect a <4% correction....

**Buster Highmen** · 05-15-2007, 10:18 AM

Originally Posted by mr_gyptian

, things keep getting cheaper in real dollar terms.

I've read that elsewhere, but in terms of my own costs and my own income, I'm not seeing it.

are we learning from the late 90s? The 7 percent gain in the DJIA would have seemed downright pedestrian back then and almost no one was giving the doom and gloom.

I guess the companies driving this are actually making money, unlike the tech/telecom boomers.

msft hasn't done __so__ badly.

not only that, but imagine the DJIA's gain if companies like GM weren't in the index over tha past five years.

Or Ford.

**iceman** · 05-15-2007, 10:18 AM

Originally Posted by Yossarian

I'm just asking if 13.5 looks crazy right now.

It does, a bit. But I've enjoyed a good runup and I've never been the first one to leave a party, so I'm sticking. Most of the stuff was bought well below 12 so either way I should be okay, I don't anticipate it going lower than that anytime soon but who the fuck knows?

The iceman fund will be trading under the symbol ICEICEBABY, place yer bets!

**4matic** · 05-15-2007, 10:18 AM

I'm super bullish on equities and continue to be:

1. Warren Buffet said buy index funds.

2. The Dow Theory has turned super bullish. Richard Russell turns bullish.

"We saw something that is extremely rare [on April 20 and April 25], in fact I can't remember ever having seen this before. What I'm referring to is that on those two dates all three Dow Jones Averages closed at simultaneous historic highs. To me, a fellow steeped in Dow Theory for over half a century, this was like a clap of thunder... My take on the situation is that the stock market (and the Dow Theory) told us that an unprecedented world boom lies ahead." Russell acknowledges that what he has written will surprise many who are accustomed to his long-standing caution about the stock market. He imagines that we will want to respond by saying "But Russell, you're usually so conservative, so restrained. How can you possibly talk this way? Now you're talking about a worldwide boom. Are you smoking something we don't know about?"

Russell's response:

"I stopped smoking over 40 year ago. No, I'm simply relating to you my interpretation of what the market is saying. I believe the markets talk in their own secret language. And when the market does something that has never been done before, that serves as a 'kick in the pants' for me. It's telling me, 'Russell, wake up. Something very unusual is going on. Get up out of your chair -- and pay attention'."

3. Sentiment remains skeptical.

4. M&A activity surging.

5. China loosens investment restrictions in foreign equity.

6. The super bulls like Henry Dent and Don Hays of the Hays Advisory have been calling it right. They expect Dow 20000 by 2010 and I tend to agree at this point. Read the forecast here:

http://www.hsdent.com/download/dow20000.pdf