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  1. #7876
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
    Posts
    13,648
    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontane View Post
    The way to do it if you're the original questioner is to do something modest like 1-5% btc against 95-99% money market or similarly safe instrument.
    Come on... FTS. Go all in.

  2. #7877
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Paper St. Soap Co.
    Posts
    3,303
    I put a bunch of cash from selling my Condo in Dec into 2.5% FDIC insured CD's at my credit union. Only penalty for early withdraw is months interest. Had I put it in the S&P would be looking at >~$50k profit ytd....so clearly I don't know what I'm doing.

    I think the only thing preventing a major correction is everybody is expecting one.

    I always make sure to buy the max allowed amount of I-bonds for the year, big fan of those, thanks Al Gore. Can use tax free for kids University. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/seriesibond.asp

  3. #7878
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    3,230
    If it’s for college I’d put some into a tax beneficial 529 for each child to the max annual if you can. The rest, an FDIC insured instrument as mentioned above make sure you limit each to the max insured value.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  4. #7879
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Denver, CO
    Posts
    1,620
    Quote Originally Posted by 406 View Post
    I put a bunch of cash from selling my Condo in Dec into 2.5% FDIC insured CD's at my credit union. Only penalty for early withdraw is months interest. Had I put it in the S&P would be looking at >~$50k profit ytd....so clearly I don't know what I'm doing.
    This is a concern of mine. It isn't really enough money to make a huge difference in my life but if I make the right choices it could grow into an amount that could make a huge difference. So I am hesitant to just park it somewhere and lose 2-3 years of growth. However, the rest of my money is tied up in real estate and a 457b which holds the typical index funds. I feel lucky to be cashing in on this property now when there is so much uncertainty but don't want to regret the choices I make with it. I will probably pay off the few debts that we have and park some of it somewhere at 2+% and find something else that perhaps earns more. I already have a 529 account for my kids which they won't need for 10-12 years.

  5. #7880
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    New Haven Line heading north
    Posts
    2,944
    Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.

  6. #7881
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Posts
    17,749
    And it all works until it doesn't.
    "timberridge is terminally vapid" -- a fortune cookie in Yueyang

  7. #7882
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    The Cone of Uncertainty
    Posts
    49,306
    I took that as pretty much his point.

  8. #7883
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Posts
    17,749
    So did I. I can't believe we all agree on something in TGR.

    You gotta pay for the talcum powder up the hoo-hoo lawsuits some way.
    "timberridge is terminally vapid" -- a fortune cookie in Yueyang

  9. #7884
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    4,754
    This is fine. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fe...ol-rates-again

    Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using TGR Forums mobile app

    ...Oh, and for those wondering why the Fed did a repo, the answer is simple: it did not want to launch QE just yet. But make no mistake, once repo is insufficient, the Fed will have no choice but to escalate to the next step which is open market purchases.

    Which brings us to the bigger question of how long such overnight repos will satisfy the market, and how long before the next repo rate spike prompts the Fed to do the inevitable, and restart QE.

    At least president Trump will be delighted...

  10. #7885
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    righthere/rightnow
    Posts
    3,164

  11. #7886
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Portland, OR, U.S.A.
    Posts
    2,537
    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontane View Post
    Thing is, Fed has a lot of options to sustain liquidity in certain markets. They can buy ES futures outright if things get really bad. From my perspective the equity markets are controlled by futures, which are controlled by rolling gamma exposure (https://twitter.com/SqueezeMetrics/with_replies). As long as gamma is positive it will collar the ES/RTY/NQ/YM futures, which will drive SPY & the overall equity complex.

    Repo inversion above FFR (I think that's the calc., could be wrong) just means large financial institutions pay a tax on daily liquidity. Not something that will trigger bankruptcies overnight but just drain liquidity from those firms via losses on daily liquidity maintenance. So if the Fed takes a week or whatever but eventually sets up a standing repo facility it will largely cure that problem.

    The broader issue is that, at max employment & near all time equity highs, the base infrastructure of the financial system is groaning under the weight of high leverage amid paltry liquidity/risk appetite. A core principle of the Austrians & more conservative economists out there is that sustained high leverage like we have now is a proy for exceptionally high fragility & susceptibility to Keynes' famed deflationary debt spiral. Think of it as variability in a random walk in a field (no biggie) vs at the edge of a cliff (requires obsessive risk mgmt).

    some non-ZH press

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chaot...160538207.html
    https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/17/busin...fed/index.html
    This helped me understand a lot, after I read the linked articles.
    another Handsome Boy graduate

  12. #7887
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    4,754
    Quote Originally Posted by Platinum Pete View Post
    This helped me understand a lot, after I read the linked articles.
    Try this read.

    https://twitter.com/allenf32/status/...302523904?s=19

    Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using TGR Forums mobile app

  13. #7888
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Down In A Hole, Up in the Sky
    Posts
    35,360
    That’s it, I’m selling all of the real estate and going short on cocaine manufacturing futures.
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

  14. #7889
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    8,245
    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    That’s it, I’m selling all of the real estate and going short on cocaine manufacturing futures.
    I would go long CBD, and also on synthetic oxy, with a dash of fentanyl as a hedge.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  15. #7890
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,814
    Something gotta give. Typically break higher:

    Last 6 days of $SPX closes since the ECB cut rates and now that the Fed has cut again:

    3006.71
    3005.70
    2997.96
    3007.39
    3009.57
    3000.93


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  16. #7891
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
    Posts
    13,648
    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    I would go long CBD, and also on synthetic oxy, with a dash of fentanyl as a hedge.
    Don't forget some Bitcoin! It's also part of a well balanced breakf^H^H^H^H^H^Hportfolio!

  17. #7892
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    805
    Quote Originally Posted by PassTheDutchie View Post
    Where would one park a ton of cash? MM? CDs? Savings?
    Fuck it, I parked it in a boat. I doubt I'll miss the $ when I'm 80 and eating pureed carrots.

    Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

  18. #7893
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    9,300ft
    Posts
    21,938
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Something gotta give. Typically break higher:

    Last 6 days of $SPX closes since the ECB cut rates and now that the Fed has cut again:

    3006.71
    3005.70
    2997.96
    3007.39
    3009.57
    3000.93
    If you push the gas and get no extra vroom when you are already going vroom, then don't keep pushing.

    I'm worried that if things shit the bed, there is less room to push the gas.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  19. #7894
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
    Posts
    13,648
    Quote Originally Posted by VTeton View Post
    Fuck it, I parked it in a boat. I doubt I'll miss the $ when I'm 80 and eating pureed carrots.
    Attachment 294560

  20. #7895
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    4,754
    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    Don't forget some Bitcoin! It's also part of a well balanced breakf^H^H^H^H^H^Hportfolio!
    Wrong thread, JONG!

    Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using TGR Forums mobile app

  21. #7896
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,814
    Good (for me) to see rates move lower after fed meeting. It won’t take much to retest the previous lows in treasury. I don’t have an exit plan yet..


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  22. #7897
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,814
    Down 8% yoy:

    The Fidelity Contrafund (FCNTX) is the largest actively managed mutual fund in the world, with more than $134 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of Oct.19, 2018. It is among the most widely held funds by 401(k) plans and other retirement plans.

  23. #7898
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Down In A Hole, Up in the Sky
    Posts
    35,360
    Uh oh...this along with yield inversions is not a good sign

    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1W91XJ
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

  24. #7899
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,814
    Consumer is always the last to go. Good day for bonds

  25. #7900
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Posts
    7,449
    do what charlie says.

    (notice how he is in the center, and the last to speak)

    c'mon now


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