Is the stock market going to tank?

[jackstraw]

industrial lubricant feedstocks are usually used motor oil that is re-refined

Did not know that. From Wiki:

Re-refining one unit of used motor oil will yield:
71% lube oil
5% fuels
14% asphalt
10% water

Refining one unit of crude oil will yield:
84% fuels (46% gasoline, 38% other fuels)
9% gases
4% coke
3% asphalt and road oil
3% petrochemical feed-stocks
1% lubricating oil

Interesting. I learned something today. Thanks

[babybear]

Interesting. I learned something today. Thanks

also lubricants
hehe

[BobMc]

People are still getting on cruise ships? Holy shit. Good luck. I wouldn't touch that with your dick.

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/

The TGR of cruising, tons of people dying to get on a cruise ship. Myself, not now. I have a cruise scheduled for next August though, hoping that comes through. Carnival was trading over $50 in January, I don’t expect it to be anywhere near that for a while but I gotta think picking it up at $12 is a good buy. NCL and RCL are battered as well and will eventually come back. I’m betting on the cruise industry to figure it out while a vaccine is found.

All that said, I’m mainly holding the stock for the shareholder on-board credit of a hundred bucks. Heh

All of the above posts are why I’m torn with any more money I come across. I want to put more into healthcare but that $33 price on XOM is like a sireens song to me. I was happy to be in it at $42, hard to turn down $33.

[k2skier112]

also lubricants
hehe

Also coke, heh heh heh

[Mazderati]

oh yes asphalt is also a big byproduct of rerefining. also goes into roofing shingles, which are going off right now
not sure what your objective is, but elaborate or pm if you'd like and I can share what I know
I think the dynamic to think about now is that the used motor oil collection was way down during covid due to miles driven being lower, so their feedstocks are supply constrained= higher prices which pressures margins/ the spread- it's getting a lot better but we also have a big end mkt hit from less planes and cruise ships in operation too until this pandemic lightens up

Great points and thanks. Just thinking broadly about how much oil demand may decrease in the next few years. Electric cars and trucks are big visible signs of decreasing demand but smaller industries like outdoor power equipment and powersports are also switching over. US lawn mowing is estimated to use 1.2B gallons or 2% of gasoline annually as of 2014 which is nowhere near car and truck consumption but it's not nothing, and electric takes more market share every year. Add in less driving due to mainstream work from home. Weigh those against population growth and oil and gas resources used to mine and manufacturer new electric products and a bunch of other things I'm surely missing (more single-use plastics?).

[pureantigravity]

What date is Black Friday?

[LeeLau]

Bought both calls and puts on the VIX. Don't know where the markets are going (of course) but either there's even more volatility (likely) or things settle down (IMO less likely. Assuming the US government and population mass insanity persist the calls will win. Assuming the US reverts to sanity the puts will win. And if I get crushed because IV decreases then I've also started a bear call spread on UVXY which cannot possibly sustain such high IV

Bought WKHS puts on the price spike to restart the short bias.

[BobMc]

I’m gingerly putzing down the green circle and bought 14 more shares of XOM this morning, lowered my cost/share down to $40.41. Was going to buy 15 shares of ACCD but it opened higher than I wanted, gonna keep my powder dry and wait for it to come back to the price I want or move onto something else.

[Mazderati]

Bought both calls and puts on the VIX. Don't know where the markets are going (of course) but either there's even more volatility (likely) or things settle down (IMO less likely. Assuming the US government and population mass insanity persist the calls will win. Assuming the US reverts to sanity the puts will win. And if I get crushed because IV decreases then I've also started a bear call spread on UVXY which cannot possibly sustain such high IV

Bought WKHS puts on the price spike to restart the short bias.

VIX down around 18% at the moment.

[ötzi]

You always hear how the market doesn't like uncertainty but nobody knows who won the election and it's up sharply early. Okay then.

[schindlerpiste]

The market is up because the GOP maintains control of the Senate.

[Benny Profane]

Glad you have this figured out.

[LeeLau]

The market is up because the GOP maintains control of the Senate.

VIX was pricing in civil war.

Tweeting and lawyers to determine US election outcomes seems to be regarded as an improvement therefore markets up and volatility tanks.

[406]

VIX was pricing in civil war.

Tweeting and lawyers to determine US election outcomes seems to be regarded as an improvement therefore markets up and volatility tanks.

So it seems, crazy. Seems like we are not out of the civil unrest woods yet.

[LeeLau]

So it seems, crazy. Seems like we are not out of the civil unrest woods yet.

Not at all out of the woods. I have the long volatility hedge on till Dec 10th. Civil war. Riots, Lockdowns. Nuking Seattle for the hell of it. Any of that could whipsaw the markets again. If there's one thing your people have shown me; anything is possible.

[Toadman]

Seems like Wall Street likes gridlock.

[dan_pdx]

Well, raising corporate taxes is almost certainly a non-starter now. I would expect Wall Street to like that.

[babybear]

Seems like Wall Street likes gridlock.

wall street likes stability. gridlock to one is maybe stability to another

[BobMc]

I couldn’t resist the draw of XOM, put in a limit order for 16 shares at $32.35. It probably won’t fill but I’m hoping if Biden wins it tanks a bit, I’d be happy to be in at that amount. My preferred healthcare, ACCD, went up a few bucks in the last couple days and foiled my attempt to get my position as low as I’d like.

3.2% return today for me, hoping we get some stability and the positive returns continue rather than the roller coaster.

[rod9301]

I couldn’t resist the draw of XOM, put in a limit order for 16 shares at $32.35. It probably won’t fill but I’m hoping if Biden wins it tanks a bit, I’d be happy to be in at that amount. My preferred healthcare, ACCD, went up a few bucks in the last couple days and foiled my attempt to get my position as low as I’d like.

3.2% return today for me, hoping we get some stability and the positive returns continue rather than the roller coaster.

Instead of this, you could sell a 30 put on xom or 32, this week reduce your cost per share if it goes down.

Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

[billyk]

I kept buying SQ as it dropped towards the end of October, and ended up with a pretty large portion of my portfolio in SQ. Probably more than I should devote to one company stock, so I was feeling a little nervous about that.

But, I’m pretty happy today! Sold most of it when it hit +11%. Hope I didn’t sell too soon again, but I accept my fate.

My portfolio is finally back to where it was pre-covid. It’s been a good week.

[LeeLau]

Rod. Issue for BobMc is that he's buying odd lots. One put for XOM = 100 shares which would be more than Bob wants to allocate.

Sold 18 then 17 calls on WKHS as I want to leg into an increased short before Nov 9th earnings (or lack thereof).

ACB is mooning and also has earnings Nov 9. All the cannabis stocks are spiking on US referenda results.

And VIX is tanking. Sayonara UVXY and VXX longs

[mcsquared]

And VIX is tanking. Sayonara UVXY and VXX longs

Yep. I had trimmed UVXY quite a bit in front of this huge binary event. But I kept enough to still make me sad face. Tempting to just go YOLO and retire when Trump declares war on Pennsylvania or some other nonsense.

[billyk]

I couldn’t resist the draw of XOM, put in a limit order for 16 shares at $32.35. It probably won’t fill but I’m hoping if Biden wins it tanks a bit, I’d be happy to be in at that amount. My preferred healthcare, ACCD, went up a few bucks in the last couple days and foiled my attempt to get my position as low as I’d like.

3.2% return today for me, hoping we get some stability and the positive returns continue rather than the roller coaster.

That XOM chart is definitely seductive, and I’ve fallen for it several times this year. But I’m not going near it again, at least not near term. As they say, past performance is no guarantee of future results. There’s just too many forces aligned to keep oil prices below the threshold where fracking becomes profitable. It’s not just reduced demand from shutdowns keeping the price low. OPEC wants to stay in control, and they have no desire for the US to be energy independent, even if it costs them some cash in the short term. After the US oil companies all go bankrupt, then they can raise oil prices back to where they were.

Hope I’m wrong, and hope it works out for you. But for me, I’ll stick with recovery plays like the food service industry.

[BobMc]

Rod. Issue for BobMc is that he's buying odd lots. One put for XOM = 100 shares which would be more than Bob wants to allocate.

Yup, I just buy stuff as I come across spare cash. Getting close to having 100 of XOM, canceled my order when it didn’t get there today, bought 15 shares at $32.84 when it trended upwards after hours. That puts me in my 93.056 shares at $39.19.

I’m in the XOM for the long game, I got time. Plus as has been mentioned earlier, they’re paying you to wait. December 10th is the next payout, for shareholders as of Nov 10th. That’ll net me $80, or about two and a half more shares. They’re also moving more into Guyana, cheaper cost of production than US fracking. It’ll be a while but I’m betting they’ll be back to over $50 per by summer.

Picked up another 10 shares of FCEL with the cash left over, go green energy!