Is the stock market going to tank?

[dan_pdx]

I sold RIVN at $142 after buying at IPO. Currently feeling like a made out like a bandit.

Well, we all knew Rivian's valuation didn't make any sense at the time, but I'm jealous of your excellent timing. I closed out positive, but I think it was only around $120.

[4matic]

I clearly don’t belong here, but could use some advice. Early last year I put a chunk of the kids college savings into an S&P500 index fund and a target date fund. I’m basically back to where I started today. I’m not as concerned about the youngest, but we’ll be using the funds for the oldest in a few years and I don’t want to start losing money. Do I pull out and wait for things to stabilize or do I ride out these lows?

No one can answer this question:

1. Define your time frame

2. Define your risk.

Cash earned nothing over the last year so what was your risk tolerance a year ago? You haven’t really lost money in that respect.

[sirbumpsalot]

I clearly don’t belong here, but could use some advice. Early last year I put a chunk of the kids college savings into an S&P500 index fund and a target date fund. I’m basically back to where I started today. I’m not as concerned about the youngest, but we’ll be using the funds for the oldest in a few years and I don’t want to start losing money. Do I pull out and wait for things to stabilize or do I ride out these lows?

You are displaying the typical retail investor mindset. If you aren't comfortable with market swings that you can afford to lose over a short term, you shouldn't be in the market. No one has a crystal ball. GLTY

[bagtagley]

1. 3 plus years for the oldest.

2. Pretty low. We’ve got maybe four semesters of state school saved up. These investments represents a little over a third of what we have saved.

[4matic]

1. 3 plus years for the oldest.

2. Pretty low. We’ve got maybe four semesters of state school saved up. These investments represents a little over a third of what we have saved.

Sell a quarter or half of the index on a bounce and see if you feel better? Target fund should be ok depending on the date

[4matic]

I’ve gotta think a lot of the selling today is fund redemptions. Puke all over the floor

[skaredshtles]

Guy at my work called the top, told everyone he was calling the top and liquidated a big chunk of his 401k. He just bought back in on Friday, said he has 30% more shares for his money. And here I thought technical analysis was all smoke and mirrors...

Don't mistake luck for anything other than that...

[liv2ski]

Investment jong here, but 63 years of real world experience. Investments in something like the S & P 500 will win the race in the long haul. The world economy should crash someday, just not anytime soon IMO, so keep dollar cost averaging in and ignore what the market is doing now.

[Name Redacted]

I love the panic. I’m tempted to bail on buying RE right now and just throw it at the S&P when I think it hits bottom. Even if I’m wrong it could pay off by the time I retire in ten years.

[Bunion 2020]

@live2ski ^^^ Not as sexy as day trading, options or Crypt(sic) but you sleep at night.

[dan_pdx]

Don't mistake luck for anything other than that...

I know, but he's done it twice now. I'm not trading based on his chart analysis, but I'm observing with interest. Of course, if he could really consistently beat the markets, why is he working with a schlub like me?

[Cono Este]

It’s hardly a great buying opportunity when we’ve not even taken out 12 months gains.


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[liv2ski]

I love the panic. I’m tempted to bail on buying RE right now and just throw it at the S&P when I think it hits bottom. Even if I’m wrong it could pay off by the time I retire in ten years.

Can you tell me when it hits bottom? I missed it last time.

[dschane]

Here's arguably a worst case scenario (TLDR = Grantham predicts SP550 @ 2500).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...?sref=5frvVJaF

[bagtagley]

Investment jong here, but 63 years of real world experience. Investments in something like the S & P 500 will win the race in the long haul. The world economy should crash someday, just not anytime soon IMO, so keep dollar cost averaging in and ignore what the market is doing now.

I’ve got other long term investments in index funds that I never look at or touch. This is my first time playing with these things for the shorter term and it’s stressing me out. Definitely not cut out for the real deal.

Thanks for the sanity check, 4matic!

[skaredshtles]

I know, but he's done it twice now. I'm not trading based on his chart analysis, but I'm observing with interest. Of course, if he could really consistently beat the markets, why is he working with a schlub like me?

Bingo.

Twice does not mean it's anything more than good luck.

*If* you follow along next time, and you lose your ass, don't blame him... deal?

[skaredshtles]

I love the panic. I’m tempted to bail on buying RE right now and just throw it at the S&P when I think it hits bottom. Even if I’m wrong it could pay off by the time I retire in ten years.

Investing in an index like this is WAAAAAAAAY less work than real estate. How much is your time worth?

[4matic]

3200 is pre pandemic high. Add average annualized at an optimistic 10% puts it around 3900. A decline to 3200 doesn’t really affect the long term annualized gain that much. 1550 was the high in 1999 and didn’t pass 1550 until 2012.

[MTT]

Investment jong here, but 63 years of real world experience. Investments in something like the S & P 500 will win the race in the long haul. The world economy should crash someday, just not anytime soon IMO, so keep dollar cost averaging in and ignore what the market is doing now.

I made a bunch on s&p. A few years ago. Lived on it while I was unemployed

S&P. NDAQ. DIA. It’s all good in the long run
My opinion and historical fact

And the gambler in me enjoys watching it

Better than feeding money into video poker machines.
How many people you see doing that

[warthog]

I’ve got other long term investments in index funds that I never look at or touch. This is my first time playing with these things for the shorter term and it’s stressing me out. Definitely not cut out for the real deal.

Thanks for the sanity check, 4matic!

Why lock in the loss now? Can you buy in more now, at the same price as when you started? If so, isn't your risk tolerance the same? When that fund is up in a year, you will have that many more shares. That is how I look at my 401K contribution. I love these dips. Now if I was 61 and this heavy in stocks? That would be not so fun.

[Name Redacted]

Can you tell me when it hits bottom? I missed it last time.

Ya, I’ll pm ya.

I kid. Of course I am not gonna try to time the market. I will wait and maybe start to DCA into some of my accounts.

And I’ll still buy some RE.

[Bunion 2020]

Now if I was 61 and this heavy in stocks? That would be not so fun.

I am 64 and plan to punch out in September of 24. Currently 70/30 and you are right watching this isn't very fun but it was somewhat predictable, not the when or the how low but the what.

[406]

3200 is pre pandemic high. Add average annualized at an optimistic 10% puts it around 3900. A decline to 3200 doesn’t really affect the long term annualized gain that much. 1550 was the high in 1999 and didn’t pass 1550 until 2012.

^^^This is worth repeating.

[Cono Este]

3200 is pre pandemic high. Add average annualized at an optimistic 10% puts it around 3900. A decline to 3200 doesn’t really affect the long term annualized gain that much. 1550 was the high in 1999 and didn’t pass 1550 until 2012.

This ^^^ x2


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[SumJongGuy]

This is the (lack of) global confidence response to McTurtle, Sinema, and Manchin shutting down Build Back Better. Trillions of dollars worth of business over the next decade shot to shit just for their shits and giggles..