Is the stock market going to tank?

**mcsquared** · 02-26-2020, 04:48 PM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

Next step down takes us to 2800

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In my head I have been thinking that we go back to mid 2018 levels. Which is right around 2800. Don't think we will go back to pre-election levels. Trump will goose it every which way to prevent that. So another 10% down sounds reasonable.

**4matic** · 02-26-2020, 04:50 PM

2800 is bottom of current support and is simply a test of the breakout.

Not sure I’m a buyer anytime soon though. Way too much macro risk for months

**Benny Profane** · 02-26-2020, 04:56 PM

Originally Posted by Danno

I'm no stock whiz, but the fact that we didn't have a rally today after 2 really bad days, spells trouble to me.

Yup, you're no stock wiz.

**SkiCougar** · 02-26-2020, 04:59 PM

Originally Posted by Danno

I'm no stock whiz, but the fact that we didn't have a rally today after 2 really bad days, spells trouble to me.

I shorted at the 100 day MA, dropped right after. still could be a relief rally of Monday and Tuesday, but if this morning was the bounce; I nailed it; will probably open up 900 points tomorrow.

**Cono Este** · 02-26-2020, 05:16 PM

Originally Posted by mcsquared

In my head I have been thinking that we go back to mid 2018 levels. Which is right around 2800. Don't think we will go back to pre-election levels. Trump will goose it every which way to prevent that. So another 10% down sounds reasonable.

We could easily test the 2018 low. 2400.

Not sure about macros like 4matic said. If they are shit, I might actually buy a stock or two at 2000.

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**iceman** · 02-26-2020, 05:39 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Listen, let me explain. Zuck wants to buy ten million dollar house. If Zuck sells equity to do so, Zuck doesn't own rapidly appreciating equity value anymore. (somebody else does, sort of). Then, on top of that, Zuck is taxed on that gain. I know it's not too much these days in the era of rich guy tax relief, but, it's substantial. So, double hit on his net worth. Now, if this is done in a rapidly rising RE market, then, maybe, a wash. But, no, RE is not there anymore, and certainly is not reliable. Now, Zuck borrows on the value of that stock at bank rates, (I think I read 1.8 at the time) which any bank would give him because he's Zuck, more than good for the loan, but, more important, they want to be nice to him and get his biz. Meanwhile, stock continues rocketing up, making a 1.8 loan literally look like pocket change. No tax burden.

It's like me buying a new car. I take 25 grand out of my IRA, the only real "cash" I have. I am taxed maybe 30% on that money, since it's income, making that car cost me 32,500. And my IRA is 25,000 lighter. Actually, 32,500 plus lighter, because the next April, I'll have a higher tax bill to pay.

Ok?

That was a very good and clear explanation, thanks.

**muted** · 02-26-2020, 06:02 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Listen, let me explain. Zuck wants to buy ten million dollar house. If Zuck sells equity to do so, Zuck doesn't own rapidly appreciating equity value anymore. (somebody else does, sort of). Then, on top of that, Zuck is taxed on that gain. I know it's not too much these days in the era of rich guy tax relief, but, it's substantial. So, double hit on his net worth. Now, if this is done in a rapidly rising RE market, then, maybe, a wash. But, no, RE is not there anymore, and certainly is not reliable. Now, Zuck borrows on the value of that stock at bank rates, (I think I read 1.8 at the time) which any bank would give him because he's Zuck, more than good for the loan, but, more important, they want to be nice to him and get his biz. Meanwhile, stock continues rocketing up, making a 1.8 loan literally look like pocket change. No tax burden.

It's like me buying a new car. I take 25 grand out of my IRA, the only real "cash" I have. I am taxed maybe 30% on that money, since it's income, making that car cost me 32,500. And my IRA is 25,000 lighter. Actually, 32,500 plus lighter, because the next April, I'll have a higher tax bill to pay.

Ok?

a 10 million dollar house is 0.0001 of Zucks net wealth, you ding-dong.

**Benny Profane** · 02-26-2020, 06:13 PM

Sigh.

Another American who can't understand why he don't have shit.

**muted** · 02-26-2020, 06:21 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Sigh.

Another American who can't understand why he don't have shit.

You haven't met me, pipe down boomer. Ha.

**Benny Profane** · 02-26-2020, 06:24 PM

It's all about zero to negative taxes, dude. The rich don't pay taxes. Just the little people.

**Cono Este** · 02-26-2020, 07:01 PM

Until your Stock goes in the shitter.

Cheasepeak Energy ceo got a margin call the last time. Got the hook from his b/d.

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**Benny Profane** · 02-26-2020, 07:04 PM

Ok, I'm done. Good luck.

**mcsquared** · 02-26-2020, 07:41 PM

Originally Posted by iceman

That was a very good and clear explanation, thanks.

Seriously, that was a rare instance of cogent thought from Benny.

And I am over here going through my mortgage refi options and wondering if going with a 25y is worth the $175/month expense over going with a 30 and extending my term.

**skaredshtles** · 02-26-2020, 08:38 PM

Originally Posted by mcsquared

Seriously, that was a rare instance of cogent thought from Benny.

And I am over here going through my mortgage refi options and wondering if going with a 25y is worth the $175/month expense over going with a 30 and extending my term.

Always shorten the term. Trust me.

**4matic** · 02-26-2020, 08:41 PM

Originally Posted by skaredshtles

Always shorten the term. Trust me.

Bullshit

**mcsquared** · 02-26-2020, 08:59 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Bullshit

No kidding. Using absolutes like always/never demonstrate a lack of critical thinking skills.

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**skaredshtles** · 02-26-2020, 09:14 PM

Fine. Do what you want.

Don't say I didn't warn you.

**Cono Este** · 02-26-2020, 09:29 PM

I’ve leveraging my Netflix stock to buy a house for $2500 a square foot.

How do you like them apples?

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**4matic** · 02-26-2020, 09:46 PM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

I’ve leveraging my Netflix stock to buy a house for $2500 a square foot.

How do you like them apples?

Moving back to San Mateo County?

Futures trading 3068.

**Brock Landers** · 02-27-2020, 05:25 AM

4m, 2800 a solid possibility...how strong is that #?

I think from a why standpoint- this is where we were when trade w China was a big (ger) issue, and the ramifications are similar- fears on growth slowdown and supply chain especially in China.

If it ever got more widespread then obv its a different issue but for now it’s tamer than The flu in 2012 or 2013

**Cono Este** · 02-27-2020, 08:46 AM

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

4m, 2800 a solid possibility...how strong is that #?

I think from a why standpoint- this is where we were when trade w China was a big (ger) issue, and the ramifications are similar- fears on growth slowdown and supply chain especially in China.

If it ever got more widespread then obv its a different issue but for now it’s tamer than The flu in 2012 or 2013

We have a decent range between 2400-2800 ish.

But really nothing else. We’ve spent 3 yrs going straight up.

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**huckbucket** · 02-27-2020, 08:49 AM

Bernie is really starting to fuck with my portfolio at this point.

**4matic** · 02-27-2020, 09:18 AM

10y at 1.25%.

**4matic** · 02-27-2020, 09:24 AM

Below the 200dma on SPY

52 week low is 24600 on INDU. Long way to go there.

**Cono Este** · 02-27-2020, 09:59 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Below the 200dma on SPY

52 week low is 24600 on INDU. Long way to go there.

Are the 200 and 50 day MA inverted yet?

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