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  1. #15026
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Cloud City
    Posts
    8,109
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    178 million option contracts or $3 trillion in notional expire today! Largest ever. Expiration fireworks or are there $2 trillion in worthless calls coming off and there will be nada?


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Since BTC is showing unprecedented correlation to the nasdaq, can you please explain to me what all this means? Number go up on Monday?
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  2. #15027
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    11,096

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by shera View Post
    Since BTC is showing unprecedented correlation to the nasdaq, can you please explain to me what all this means? Number go up on Monday?
    Itís the dollar value of options that people have on the underlying and is now expiring.

    My experience, from a galaxy far, far away, volatility rises as there is less hedging, and even an un winding of those positions. But lots of people obviously roll those positions too.

    Anytime I was long a ton of premium, and it expired, only then the stupid stock would move.

    Probably good to own feb or March premium.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Last edited by Cono Este; 01-21-2022 at 12:55 PM.

  3. #15028
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,407
    GME up 5% with an hour left in trade $107. What other reason than option leverage?

  4. #15029
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,407
    Even now SP500 is still almost 3% higher than it's september low.

    18 month low on AMZN

  5. #15030
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,407

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by shera View Post
    Since BTC is showing unprecedented correlation to the nasdaq, can you please explain to me what all this means? Number go up on Monday?
    Itís just another macro asset now. Subject to the whim of speculation, derivative, and sentiment albeit one with no earnings or intrinsic value.
    Last edited by 4matic; 01-21-2022 at 02:48 PM.

  6. #15031
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    11,096
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    GME up 5% with an hour left in trade $107. What other reason than option leverage?
    Usually on ex, if there is a large open interest, a stock gets ďpinnedĒ at the strike. Whatever it is, itís impossible to really guess whatís happening and why.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  7. #15032
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,407

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by shera View Post
    Since BTC is showing unprecedented correlation to the nasdaq, can you please explain to me what all this means? Number go up on Monday?
    With correlation so high, as you note, I think ARKK is a better speculation at this point if youíre bullish

  8. #15033
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Paper St. Soap Co.
    Posts
    2,920
    Looks like my order for VOO at $406 filled yesterday :-), figured next in the high three hundreds. I'm guessing 10% drop off high and then back to up.

  9. #15034
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Juneau
    Posts
    1,006
    Graphic from yesterday's Fin. Times:

    Name:  BRK v ARKK.PNG
Views: 231
Size:  66.1 KB

  10. #15035
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    50,432
    Yup. How many times have the hucksters tried to bury Buffett?

    The world is perfect. Appreciate the details.

  11. #15036
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Cloud City
    Posts
    8,109
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    With correlation so high, as you note, I think ARKK is a better speculation at this point if you’re bullish
    Interesting. I did buy some ARKK at $75. I'm toying with an idea - sell some GME on a dead cat bounce and buy ARKK on another leg down, hopefully in the 50s range. We'll see if the market cooperates.

    I will continue buying bitcoin all the way down with any cash I can scrape together. No discretionary spending, tightening the belt!
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  12. #15037
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    New Haven Line heading north
    Posts
    2,906
    Today seems like a whoosh! day.

  13. #15038
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    11,096
    Should I buy my crypto back for 1/2 what I sold it for? Or 1/3?


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  14. #15039
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    13,137
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    Should I buy my crypto back for 1/2 what I sold it for? Or 1/3?
    Another 10% and I'd buy some more. Don't know what its like in other regions in NorAm but RE assessments are up 30-40%. 2bd 2ba condo bought five years ago for 500k now going for 1.05m. It's surreal

  15. #15040
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,407

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    SP500 took out the December low and bounced back. That should clean out a lot of trading longs.

    AMZN down $1k from its high. Still has another $800 to go on the chart

  16. #15041
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Where the sheets have no stains
    Posts
    18,202
    We were overdue for some sort of a correction. Anyone care to call the bottom?
    I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.

    "Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"

  17. #15042
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    18,407
    Quote Originally Posted by Bunion 2020 View Post
    We were overdue for some sort of a correction. Anyone care to call the bottom?
    I thinks itís more important whether itís another V bottom or a longer choppier period. Latter is my thought. Lots of individual executions still to come.

  18. #15043
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Where the sheets have no stains
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    18,202
    I watched my Financial Advisors latest video predicting the 1st Q of 22 and they tended to agree that we were in for a period of volatility that could last until Q3.

    Time will tell. I have the cash on hand to dump into my Self employed 401K and my plan is to hold off as long as possible.
    I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.

    "Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"

  19. #15044
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    Feb 2005
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    North Vancouver/Whistler
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    13,137
    I don't smell panic yet bunion. Take that fwiw

  20. #15045
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
    Posts
    9,631
    Quote Originally Posted by Bunion 2020 View Post
    I watched my Financial Advisors latest video predicting the 1st Q of 22 and they tended to agree that we were in for a period of volatility that could last until Q3.

    Time will tell. I have the cash on hand to dump into my Self employed 401K and my plan is to hold off as long as possible.
    Trying to call the bottom is obviously a fool's errand - but you might consider buying in with "chunks" of cash. Just split up the next "x" months and buy in even amounts of $$ over that time period...

  21. #15046
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    7,343
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    I don't smell panic yet bunion. Take that fwiw
    Is this dependent on whether or not the Fed can be cowed into skipping rate hikes?

  22. #15047
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
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    9,631
    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyCarter View Post
    Is this dependent on whether or not the Fed can be cowed into skipping rate hikes?
    No way they're going to be able to do that, what with the frothing about inflation...

  23. #15048
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
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    13,137
    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    No way they're going to be able to do that, what with the frothing about inflation...
    I agree there'll be rate hikes. But the question is whether and to what extent that's priced in.

    Such a guessing game. I'm basically sitting on sidelines and thinking of taking short profits on Bynd and Pton. That's because I haven't the faintest and I'd imagine not many others do

  24. #15049
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
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    North Vancouver/Whistler
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    13,137
    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyCarter View Post
    Is this dependent on whether or not the Fed can be cowed into skipping rate hikes?
    Skipping rate hikes is well nigh impossible at present

  25. #15050
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,407
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    I don't smell panic yet bunion. Take that fwiw
    Sentiment is still buy dips instead of sell rallies in everything but bonds.

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