Is the stock market going to tank?

**Brock Landers** · 03-05-2021, 09:40 AM

Originally Posted by Hopeless Sinner

Is the next 2T stimulus all ready accounted for in stock prices?

Or will the market pop when it's passed?

It’s already in there, has been since November. It should broaden out market leadership- energy, industrials, etc will continue to pop while “normal” growth lags and high growth moves vary company to company. Although like I mentioned earlier, they sell off together based on similarities in ownership base, valuations, sector/industry. Differ in fundamental revenue drivers. So the high growers have acted similar to each other on the way down recently.

$3.5T deficit this year. Money supply uppppp gold should eventually follow even if inflation doesn’t.

**4matic** · 03-05-2021, 09:50 AM

Gold testing the breakout at $1700. If it breaks lower with any momentum next stop $1500.

Money supply aggregates has been dropped from economist forecast models due to ineffective forecast.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthef...int/fed49.html

**Hopeless Sinner** · 03-05-2021, 10:07 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

If it passes and the market goes up it will be due to stimulus. If the market goes down it will be due to stimulus. It's a place your bet trade not an investable macro event. If my interaction with a handful of new pandemic traders is any indication I suspect a big decline in the ARKK names will paralyze a lot of new traders. The ones I've spoken to only have a plan for when stocks go up. They have no plan how to exit a losing position other than hope they come back.

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

It’s already in there, has been since November. It should broaden out market leadership- energy, industrials, etc will continue to pop while “normal” growth lags and high growth moves vary company to company. Although like I mentioned earlier, they sell off together based on similarities in ownership base, valuations, sector/industry. Differ in fundamental revenue drivers. So the high growers have acted similar to each other on the way down recently.

$3.5T deficit this year. Money supply uppppp gold should eventually follow even if inflation doesn’t.

I have been cautious so far, still have cash to invest(although I did buy some emerging mkt a couple weeks ago) and will let things play out a bit more. I can't help but think that the loosening/disregard of c19 restrictions and end of forbearance is going to impact the market negatively at some point and present a opportunity in the 10-20% range.

**Brock Landers** · 03-05-2021, 10:25 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Gold testing the breakout at $1700. If it breaks lower with any momentum next stop $1500.

Money supply aggregates has been dropped from economist forecast models due to ineffective forecast.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthef...int/fed49.html

Saw that, at this point a forecast doesn’t matter anyway. Money supply will be somewhere between “more” and “a lot more” just based on what currently in the rhetoric now (plus interest). I’ll buy more gold all the way down to 1500 (my horizon is 5-10 years so take that with a grain of salt).

**Brock Landers** · 03-05-2021, 10:31 AM

Originally Posted by Hopeless Sinner

I have been cautious so far, still have cash to invest(although I did buy some emerging mkt a couple weeks ago) and will let things play out a bit more. I can't help but think that the loosening/disregard of c19 restrictions and end of forbearance is going to impact the market negatively at some point and present a opportunity in the 10-20% range.

I DO think ending some of the forbearance/ impacts to commercial real estate and other structured markets will happen in the next couple years. But loosening restrictions means money flowing to businesses. That is good.

How long have you waited for the 10-20% drop? And how has the market done since then?

**Hopeless Sinner** · 03-05-2021, 10:19 PM

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

I DO think ending some of the forbearance/ impacts to commercial real estate and other structured markets will happen in the next couple years. But loosening restrictions means money flowing to businesses. That is good.

How long have you waited for the 10-20% drop? And how has the market done since then?

I put a chunk in on the covid drop so have been waiting about a year. I didn't want to go "all in" at that point since I was unsure how my payout from the sale of my business would be affected since roughly 60% of the revenue was generated by foodservice and restaurants. Been holding back since, except for the small addition of EM a couple weeks ago. Of course the market has done well, but I didn't miss out completely.

**Brock Landers** · 03-05-2021, 10:29 PM

You had other shit to worry about, you don’t seem to be “market cautious”. If your business wasn’t a factor you’d likely be all in. And that was prudent.

I think energy and consumer related industries will continue to do better as vaccines are rolled out, shit gets somewhat back to normal (or there’s a light at the end of the tunnel), the govt is still pumping a ton of money out there, and a huge chunk of the population is looking to get the hell out of the house and spend some of the $ they’ve been hoarding since it couldn’t be spent on fun shit. Cruises. Energy will be supported by increased activity. Hell even airlines. Booking.com. Ctrip.com. TripAdvisor. Darden. Brinker.

**BobMc** · 03-05-2021, 10:39 PM

Even though I was losing big time early day, by the end of the day I was up 1%. Once again got spanked on renewables, if I had cash I’d grab more. ACCD dropped below my cost briefly, once again I wish I had cash.

XOM and MRO on a tear, pretty much all of energy was up, except renewables? Could’ve been overvalued from Biden anticipation and now a cool off? Infrastructure movement should turn that around. I hope.

GE on a steady upswing? Other divisions than Aviation driving profits, people are going to travel soon.

My biggest close tonight, holding pattern has steadily inched forward. I’m thinking that’s how you do it?

**Brock Landers** · 03-05-2021, 10:43 PM

Today was a weird fuckin day. Energy continues to run.

**stuckathuntermtn** · 03-06-2021, 12:50 AM

What is going on with the market overall, are we just looking at a correction for stuff being overvalued?

**Benny Profane** · 03-06-2021, 08:19 AM

12 years and counting.

https://thereformedbroker.com/2021/02/17/the-big-long/

**gravitylover** · 03-06-2021, 08:31 AM

Originally Posted by BobMc

XOM and MRO on a tear, pretty much all of energy was up, except renewables? Could’ve been overvalued from Biden anticipation and now a cool off? Infrastructure movement should turn that around. I hope.

Yeah renewables and EV was the bulk of my losses the last week or so, some MJ stocks too but I didn't have much into them so I'll just sit on them for a while and wait. I was hoping the losers would have kept going up so I could pull some cash and add a few more but no... Overall, my very small stake is, down about 25% but most of that is in stuff I was planning on holding for a while anyway so it's not too bad.

**LeeLau** · 03-06-2021, 12:21 PM

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...s-unemployment

Stimulus passed! Memestocks time

**Hopeless Sinner** · 03-06-2021, 02:17 PM

Originally Posted by LeeLau

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...s-unemployment

Stimulus passed! Memestocks time

The new version still needs a revote in the House to confirm, but that shouldn't change the outcome.

**Brock Landers** · 03-06-2021, 03:51 PM

Prob not “poorly run” but if you could find a coal company not already bankrupt...

**LeeLau** · 03-06-2021, 06:52 PM

Originally Posted by MCS5280

So what's the shittiest most poorly run publicly traded company? I'm gonna go all-in.

NKLA KODK. Used to be GE but they're getting better. Or if you want out and out scams I've got a list

**LeeLau** · 03-07-2021, 10:13 AM

Originally Posted by BobMc

XOM and MRO on a tear, pretty much all of energy was up, except renewables? Could’ve been overvalued from Biden anticipation and now a cool off? Infrastructure movement should turn that around. I hope.

Frim the high yield perspective, XOM is back to a price where I can't justify adding anymore. My cost basis at 45s + covered calls will return 16- 18%pa so that's satisfactory.

I've been adding SU since the 15s ( avg low 17s), adding IRM (low 32s). SU returns 8%pa but I feel they will increase the div. IRM has been a decade + of 12- 13% pa.

For reopening the economy plays I've still got CCL ( avg now 15s and won't add anymore, TWO, AGNC, SIX.

**Brock Landers** · 03-07-2021, 11:11 AM

Agnc just a typical mortgage REIT? I do like CCL and 6 flags.

**LeeLau** · 03-07-2021, 02:03 PM

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Agnc just a typical mortgage REIT? I do like CCL and 6 flags.

AGNC is just your basic mREIT. I bought it in April of last year hoping that the spreads widening would allow the mREITS to get back to "normal" and that their exposure to government backed mortgage tranches would help. It's a bit of a slow and steady grind

**LeeLau** · 03-08-2021, 09:50 AM

Sold the RKT 27.39C weeklies for $1 premium to get the cost basis down.

Started another series of RIOT calls selling 50 and 55C weeklies

Thoughts and prayers to GME shorts

**m2711c** · 03-08-2021, 11:02 AM

How big of a price jump on the option would it take to get you to roll your covered call earlier than expiration?

**LeeLau** · 03-08-2021, 11:27 AM

Originally Posted by m2711c

How big of a price jump on the option would it take to get you to roll your covered call earlier than expiration?

Depends. I just got a 50% profit on the RIOT 50Cs in 1 hour so I took it. Usually I will start considering an early roll or cover if 80 - 90% of profit and there's a week or more to go especially if there's a price spike in the underlying on which to roll the call

**Toadman** · 03-08-2021, 11:38 AM

Originally Posted by LeeLau

Thoughts and prayers to GME shorts

GME on another crusade to crush the shorts this morning.

**CovertM** · 03-08-2021, 01:54 PM

Originally Posted by LeeLau

Sold the RKT 27.39C weeklies for $1 premium to get the cost basis down.

Started another series of RIOT calls selling 50 and 55C weeklies

Thoughts and prayers to GME shorts

Sold RKT 29.89 for 3/19, still wondering what the div. will do to price movement ie. people selling
Closed some RIOT 80C and waiting for a bounce to sell more CC, missed it this morning.
Closed $50 & $60 GME CSP, kicking myself for not keeping at least 100 token shares to sell calls with, premiums are bananas.

Trying to be diligent and not re sell CC after closing on down days. Assuming it pays to wait for a bounce to resell CC and capitalize on premium increase?

**dschane** · 03-08-2021, 04:28 PM

Originally Posted by LeeLau

For reopening the economy plays I've still got CCL ( avg now 15s and won't add anymore, TWO, AGNC, SIX.

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

I do like CCL and 6 flags.

You guys will have to explain CCL and the other big cruise companies to me. I get six flags, and I like GE and the airline stocks (am partial to ALK). But the cruise companies took on a shit ton of debt and diluted their stock, and the best case seems to be that they will resume cruising in June/July but at 50-70% capacity. I doubt they will require that all passengers be vaccinated, but either way, one variant outbreak and the re-opening goes bust. Canada already closed its ports through Feb. 2022, so no cruising to Alaska. I get that they're shares are surging these days, but are we talking buys for the longer term? I wouldn't touch them with a 10-foot pole beyond 2 months - what am I missing?