Results 7,776 to 7,800 of 18222
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08-23-2019, 03:56 PM #7776Jacket Cobbler
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^^i think they try to presell a lot so customers are locked in , so the tariffs would be when the company pays , i guess....
www.freeridesystems.com
ski & ride jackets made in colorado
maggot discount code TGR20
ok we'll come up with a solution by then makers....
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08-23-2019, 04:06 PM #7777
Is the stock market going to tank?
My first serious buy would be at the pre election levels. Dow 18k or so. 1/3 down from where ever the high was. Then a double fisted buy at -40 from high. But I think the chances of a quick turn around are shit because it will ruin any chance of a trump re election and unless it Biden is on the ticket, people are going to be selling way ahead of a Warren or Sanders tax plan.
Could be the perfect nightmare. Trump disrupting the global economy followed by tons of new regulatory red tape and taxes. Happens after most crashes.
Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
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08-23-2019, 04:28 PM #7778
Merry Fuckin' Christmas!
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tru...tember-octoberForum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident
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08-23-2019, 04:38 PM #7779
Those who ignore history....
After nearly a decade of good times, things, all of a sudden, looked wobbly. The stock market fell sharply. The president — a wealthy man who had never been elected to office before, but was very sure of himself, thank you very much — reassured Americans that all was well and the future bright.
Even so, the president thought one thing was needed to make things better: tariffs on America’s trade partners. Many economists and lawmakers argued against this, saying it would hurt trade, kill jobs and slow, if not contract, the economy. The president dismissed their reasoning, and into place the tariffs went.
As economic uncertainty mounted, many investors moved into gold, which was perceived as a safe haven (so much so that the Treasury feared it might run out of bullion).
And even though the economy had previously been good, many Americans feared immigrants were coming to take their jobs and sought to keep them out. Sure, Europeans were generally OK, particularly if they were from places like Norway, Sweden and Germany — in other words, if they looked “American.” The mood toward others was far less hospitable, and efforts were made to bar entire ethnic groups.
More ominously, the anti-immigrant mood dovetailed with a resurgence by white supremacist groups like the Ku Klux Klan, which widened its hateful, racist agenda to include (along with blacks, of course) Jews and Catholics. Elites — well-educated Americans who lived in urban areas — were also despised. Klan membership soared to an estimated 2.5% to 6.5% of the population. Think about that. If that was today, that would mean some 21 million Americans in the KKK.
In short, it was a hateful, divisive, dangerous time — even though the economy had been good.
If the past is prologue, then the situation that President Trump finds himself in — and our country finds itself in — increasingly resembles what we’ve seen before. Don’t get me wrong: This isn’t 1929. But there are worrisome signs. Hate crimes are on the rise: The FBI reported 7,175 hate crimes in 2017 — a 17% jump from 2016. Among a sizable minority of Americans, there’s an anti-immigrant frenzy, the likes of which hasn’t been seen in this country since the 1920s. Emma Lazarus’s poem on the Statue of Liberty — “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free” — that was just meant for Europeans, the White House now claims. It’s another reminder, and a dangerous one, that history can be whitewashed for the ignorant.
We’re told that the economy is the best it’s ever been — yet we tremble in fear at a new batch of huddled masses coming to pick our crops and change our hotel sheets. What the fearful don’t realize is that immigrants, both legal and otherwise, pay taxes, commit fewer crimes, and start far more businesses than native borns. Many — like from Nigeria, one of Trump’s so-called “sh*thole” countries — even tend to be far better educated than native borns.
We’re told that the economy is the best it’s ever been. Yet stocks have cooled: The S&P 500 stands where it did in January 2018. The economy is growing, but it’s slowing rapidly. Job growth is slowing — the Labor Department said the economy had about 501,000 fewer jobs as of March 2019 than first estimated, based on its surveys of business establishments. Half a million — and even before this, monthly job growth had shifted into a lower gear.
The new data clearly shows that the economy didn’t get the giant boost that President Trump promised his tax cuts and his deficit-busting spending would provide. So what do we have? Low interest rates, a monstrous deficit — up 27% in just a year and back in $1 trillion territory — and a soaring national debt. It has jumped over the $20 trillion, $21 trillion and now $22 trillion mark on his watch, and is now bigger than the U.S. economy itself (though it’s fair to point out that the debt is divided into two tranches: about 3/4 is held by the public and about 1/4 is intragovernmental debt). In the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30, interest on all this red ink will be nearly $400 billion. Next year taxpayers will fork over even more.
Herbert Hoover was warned about tariffs and didn’t listen. Trump — who promised us that “trade wars are easy to win, believe me” (he now denies saying this) didn’t listen either. We’re now bogged down in a nasty battle with a country whose economy, is by some measures bigger than ours. The cost to you this year: $600, says a JP Morgan Chase report out this week. It adds you’ll take a $1,000 hit next year if Trump makes good on his threat to hit China (in other words you) with tariffs on another $300 billion worth of goods.
Friday Trump learned that he’s not the only guy who knows how to throw a punch. Beijing said it would slap tariffs on $75 billion of American goods. The president — never one to turn the other cheek — may reverse his earlier decision to delayed his own next round of tariffs, saying he didn’t want to hurt Americans ahead of the Christmas shopping season.
But if China is paying the tariffs as he keeps saying, how could Americans get hurt? This is a trick question. Everybody knows Americans are paying: JP Morgan Chase knows it, farmers know it, U.S. Steel — which is laying off hundreds at a plant in Michigan — knows it.I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.
"Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"
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08-23-2019, 04:42 PM #7780
Got my first "tariff charge" yesterday. Bought some RTIC products and got hit with an extra charge at checkout. So much for China paying the tariff.
I agree it is a constitutional right for Americans to be assholes...its just too bad that so many take the opportunity...iscariot
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08-23-2019, 05:30 PM #7781
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08-23-2019, 07:10 PM #7782
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08-24-2019, 04:06 AM #7783
Really expensive cars are dropping. Time to make some deals.
"I don't pretend to have all the answers, and I think there's something to be said for that" -One For The Road
Brain dead and made of money.
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08-24-2019, 09:10 AM #7784
USD/CNY
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08-27-2019, 09:34 AM #7785
Rebalance 401K from 85% stocks with a good chunk of intl and small caps to 50% stocks only large and a touch of midcap.
Tell me I'm dumb.Originally Posted by blurred
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08-27-2019, 10:43 AM #7786
It will be interesting to see if China plays the long game and gives Donny a "deal" to help him get reelected. Seems more their style to save face and help tank things so he doesn't get elected. Plus the chaos of him not leaving office post election...although that is more Putin m.o.
Last edited by 406; 08-27-2019 at 10:53 AM. Reason: reading comprehension fail
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08-27-2019, 10:47 AM #7787
Not saying you're wrong, but a few thoughts:
1) Large cap stocks may not perform better because large/stable businesses are the one most impacted by all the uncertainty around shit like trade policy.
2) Foreign markets, particularly asian markets, have been pummeled for a while already and are probably depressed relative to US markets. If we're all going down, US markets may go down relatively more.
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08-27-2019, 10:52 AM #7788
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08-27-2019, 11:04 AM #7789
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08-27-2019, 12:24 PM #7790
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08-27-2019, 06:22 PM #7791
Yea I realize that. It just took a bit to figure out how to do that with my situation which is actually TSP+401K. TSP is super limited in choices so I am gonna use that for equities because there is no short term debt or MM fund to choose. It's bonds indices or stock indices. There is a short term option in my 401. Finally figured it out.
Now 2% bonds, 48% MM, 30% large, 5% mid, 8% small, 7% intl.
From 12% bonds, 0%MM, 72% large, 0% mid, 8% small, 7% intl.Last edited by Summit; 08-27-2019 at 06:42 PM.
Originally Posted by blurred
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08-28-2019, 12:27 AM #7792
Capitulate?
Where’s the global recession data?Decisions Decisions
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08-28-2019, 12:45 AM #7793
sort of have to love this current dbag and the unrest ensuing.
i'm a charlie munger fanboy.
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08-28-2019, 01:28 AM #7794
How long has this “recession” been coming for? 5 years? Since November 2016?
Decisions Decisions
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08-28-2019, 07:06 AM #7795Funky But Chic
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- The Cone of Uncertainty
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- 49,306
Brock always makes me feel better.
well, maybe not "always" always.
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08-28-2019, 09:13 AM #7796Been there, skied that.
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- Feb 2004
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- Loveland, Chair 9.
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08-28-2019, 10:27 AM #7797
Still waiting for a real catalyst.
Trump going to war with Iran before Christmas is the only x facto that comes to mind.
There is no nationwide over leveraged accounts like housing in ‘08. Tech could pull back with a trade war with “Ghina” but even if tech drops, Apple, Facebook or Amazon will buy up the remains.
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08-28-2019, 11:09 AM #7798Funky But Chic
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Plus you know Trump is gonna try to pull a rabbit out of his ass somehow and give things a boost heading towards the election.
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08-28-2019, 06:53 PM #7799
So how far do corporate bonds have to drop to cause a recession?
Stock buybacks were fueled by the recent Republican tax bill, it had nothing to do with businesses doing well. The 6% drop shows smart money was probably moving their cash into stocks not into bonds. I don’t see how corporate bonds crashing would trigger a recession like what happened to mortgage backed securities.
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08-28-2019, 07:06 PM #7800
High quality corp bonds probably won't crash and likely go lower rate. I don't see a big problem because even most lower quality borrowers will be able to re-finance at lower rates. There will be defaults but I suspect the next recession will be shallow but perhaps protracted with a smaller bounce which has been the scenario for decades. The effect on equity is more unpredictable I think.
LQD can go a lot higher
https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/LQD/...YXJ0In19fX0%3D
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