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  1. #17826
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Tahoe-ish
    Posts
    3,139
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post

    WAL gains now offsetting FRC losses. Gonna keep holding both. Sold some FRC puts to add a bit more hopefully
    I made a quick 23% on WAL after its first big drop and sold. But then I got cocky and bought some FRC, which promptly dropped even more and ate up most of my gainz. Ye olde Wall Street casino provides the entertainment.
    ride bikes, climb, ski, travel, cook, work to fund former, repeat.

  2. #17827
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Movin' On
    Posts
    3,712
    Stonks only go up.

  3. #17828
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    9,300ft
    Posts
    21,921
    Click image for larger version. 

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    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  4. #17829
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    8,230
    Probably could post this in the RE thread, but this more to do with Commercial RE and banks that hold the loans on CRE.

    The next threat to banks, we are hearing:
    Commercial real estate loans going bad.
    Especially loans backed by office properties,
    many of which remain troublingly unfilled three years
    after the pandemic first revved up remote work.
    Note how exposed banks are to CRE loans:
    Half of current CRE loans are held by banks,
    with smaller banks disproportionately represented.
    For banks with only $1 billion to $10 billion in assets,
    CRE loans account for a third of their total lending.
    A great deal of CRE debt rolls over this year.
    $270 billion matures and will need to be refinanced,
    at a time when lenders are already tightening credit.
    30% of that debt backs office buildings. A big wave
    of refinancing will roll over the office sector from now
    through 2026. In many of the top markets, 20%
    or more of total space will have to be rolled over.
    The office vacancy rate recently hit 17.3%.
    Compare that with the pre-COVID level of 12% or so.
    The remote work trend has likely peaked.
    Bosses are getting more workers back to the office.
    But vacancies will stay elevated for years.
    Many distressed office buildings don’t have years for things to normalize.
    Loans backing office properties are already going into default. Five buildings in Denver,
    for instance, may be entering the process. Columbia Property Trust defaulted on seven,
    mostly in New York and San Francisco. A subsidiary of Brookfield Properties
    defaulted on loans backing two buildings in Los Angeles. More defaults are likely
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  5. #17830
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Movin' On
    Posts
    3,712
    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    Probably could post this in the RE thread, but this more to do with Commercial RE and banks that hold the loans on CRE.
    The commercial RE hole is in the trillions of dollars. There is no way the federal reserve and the federal government will allow the commercial RE bubble to crash all the way to a natural price discovery level.

    Calling it now- They'll print a mutli-trillion dollar bailout.

  6. #17831
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    9,300ft
    Posts
    21,921
    If they bail that out, it is gonna be hell to pay politically and economically.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  7. #17832
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Movin' On
    Posts
    3,712
    Totally agree on the economic price to pay of a commercial RE bailout. It will lead to more inflation and will keep asset prices higher than they should be.

    Political price to pay? Nah, definitely not. American politicians down answer to voters, they answer to donors.

  8. #17833
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    7,909
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    Totally agree on the economic price to pay of a commercial RE bailout. It will lead to more inflation and will keep asset prices higher than they should be.

    Political price to pay? Nah, definitely not. American politicians down answer to voters, they answer to donors.
    Only to a point though, they still need to get elected. Multi trillion bailout of strip malls and empty office complexes is going to rile up even the WFH crowd and some heads will roll. The question is how many.
    Live Free or Die

  9. #17834
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Posts
    12,565
    So if there was a real problem with the economy and banking collapse or whatever, couldn't the Fed just drop rates back down and then the market would rally and a lot of this stuff would just fix itself? Or maybe I'm thinking a little to simply here.

  10. #17835
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,804
    The S&P 500 today is at about the same level it was on:
    3/31/23
    2/21/23
    2/13/23
    2/1/23
    12/13/22
    12/1/22
    9/12/22
    8/26/22
    8/2/22
    6/9/22
    5/27/22
    5/6/22
    5/2/22

  11. #17836
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Paper St. Soap Co.
    Posts
    3,292
    yeah, my guess a year ago was we would bounce around 4k for awhile. I'm guessing that will continue. I should have bought more in Oct :-)

  12. #17837
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,804
    T chart ready to breakout. Could run to $30.

  13. #17838
    Join Date
    Oct 2002
    Location
    my own little world
    Posts
    5,834
    Quote Originally Posted by Name Redacted View Post
    So if there was a real problem with the economy and banking collapse or whatever, couldn't the Fed just drop rates back down and then the market would rally and a lot of this stuff would just fix itself? Or maybe I'm thinking a little to simply here.
    I can’t really speak to the economy…. It’d fuck with NIM on the banking side though. Just starting to see movement on loan portfolio yields…. But not enough. If rates dropped back down it would wipe out unrealized losses, which are much to do about nothing if liquidity also comes back, and increase duration on time deposits.

    Be nice if the fed stopped pulling levers for a few minutes.
    focus.

  14. #17839
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    The Mayonnaisium
    Posts
    10,467

  15. #17840
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Location
    on the banks of Fish Creek
    Posts
    7,474
    “levers were made for pullin’…”

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    fact.

  16. #17841
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Posts
    5,463
    Quote Originally Posted by Mazderati View Post
    I totally agree with Stewart’s sentiment and desired outcome. But I think this is where scapegoating the Fed is letting everyone else off the hook.

    The Fed has a mandate to control inflation (and also to maintain full employment, which is in tension with maintaining low inflation somewhat). And they’ve been given a limited number of tools to go about doing that.

    I don’t think they have a means pick and choose where in the economy to target inflation: they can’t reduce the 30% of inflation being driven by corporate profits, but not impact the inflation driven by increasing wages of workers.

    But other policy makers could certainly do something like that.

  17. #17842
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    13,964
    WAL! Stonks!!!

    https://s21.q4cdn.com/920996046/file...22-(Final).pdf

    Beat eps expectations. Deposits increased. Thx Yellen! Thx JPow

  18. #17843
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Location
    SEA>DEN>Spokanistan
    Posts
    2,962
    Nice bump today on WAL


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  19. #17844
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    13,964
    Got some more FRC through puts which I sold bringing avg price now down to high teens. Still underwater there though but less so

  20. #17845
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    13,293
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    Got some more FRC through puts which I sold bringing avg price now down to high teens. Still underwater there though but less so
    Short premium is the way to go after a gap down.

  21. #17846
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    13,964
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    Short premium is the way to go after a gap down.
    FRC had so much IV I sold covered calls and wrote puts to get the cost base down. At this point I'm playing the equity thesis that (i) bad news has been priced in (equity is 15% of book); (ii) a forced sale of entire enterprise is off the table so no mark to market valuation is required.

    If the deposits stabilize or grow IMO that's a win.

  22. #17847
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Splat's Garage
    Posts
    4,182
    Buy the dip on TSLA now? or hope & wait until it drops to $150?

  23. #17848
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    13,964
    Struggling Bed Bath & Beyond files for bankruptcy protection

  24. #17849
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    10,048
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    Struggling Bed Bath & Beyond files for bankruptcy protection
    But wen squeeze!??!!

  25. #17850
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    13,964
    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyCarter View Post
    But wen squeeze!??!!
    BBBY put sellers on r/thetagang. Thoughts and prayers

    https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/c...t=share_button

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