Is the stock market going to tank?

[JimmyCarter]

Correct but I was surprised and one leg of my hedge failed but to my profit!

Jimmy. I'm still in my original FRC and WAL bag and holding. Added some this morning via FRX puts i wrote on that oh so sweet 750% IV (sarcasm)

If FRC sells all of substantially all its business it probably won't be good for equity though. Their wealth management division is superb but selling under pressure usually means deep discount. This popular delusion and madness of crowds is deeper than I anticipated

Faber says $25b “hole” in balance sheet, which isn’t great for a negotiating position I suppose. JPM would love that client base, but they seem to have a lot of balls in the air at the moment.

I don’t have the attention span to build out an option play either, even though I think it’s grossly undervalued still.

[LeeLau]

Faber says $25b “hole” in balance sheet, which isn’t great for a negotiating position I suppose. JPM would love that client base, but they seem to have a lot of balls in the air at the moment.

I don’t have the attention span to build out an option play either, even though I think it’s grossly undervalued still.

Valuation in a panic environment is a crapshoot. My option play is hold token long. Sell puts on what I'd like to own at dumpster levels. Sell covered calls on underlying. Buy puts funded by the premium as some degree of protection. Basically long biased but with theta and vega on my side and hope the panic subsides in my 1 to 2 week timeframe

As for why FRC and WAL are the weakest regionals these guys did the same screen I ( and many others) did. Screened for uninsured deposits and assets held to maturity

https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-f...ts/?src=A00220

[JimmyCarter]

JPM and MS in talks to bolster FRC, including capital raise

[LeeLau]

JPM and MS in talks to bolster FRC, including capital raise

And talk that BTFP will kick in more to FRC. Low interest money printer go brrrrr

[JimmyCarter]

Stock jumped 3 bucks on news, then dropped to a halt down


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[LeeLau]

Stock jumped 3 bucks on news, then dropped to a halt down


Sent from my iPad using TGR Forums

The swings on these boring af bank stocks is mind blowing. Fwiw option weekly chains created but not much interest in those yet.

No WSB or thetagang significant mentions also. It'd be good to get the dumb money in on this for added whacked out pricing

[JimmyCarter]

The swings on these boring af bank stocks is mind blowing. Fwiw option weekly chains created but not much interest in those yet.

No WSB or thetagang significant mentions also. It'd be good to get the dumb money in on this for added whacked out pricing

WSB knows about it, but in their general “fuck the man” mentality they celebrate the downfall instead of buying up cheap.

[BobMc]

I've got an order to sell a put, but it's nowhere near the ask price. If it doesn't sell I'm going to sit on the sidelines and see what happens.

[JimmyCarter]

I've got an order to sell a put, but it's nowhere near the ask price. If it doesn't sell I'm going to sit on the sidelines and see what happens.

I’m tempted to sell a bunch of naked $5 or $10 3/17 puts but I just know that as soon as I do the bottom will fall out

Note: I’d love to buy at 5, but I feel like if it hits 5 it’s headed to 0

[LeeLau]

I’m tempted to sell a bunch of naked $5 or $10 3/17 puts but I just know that as soon as I do the bottom will fall out

Note: I’d love to buy at 5, but I feel like if it hits 5 it’s headed to 0

Absolutely it could tank more. Gotta ski but hot damn if this casino isn't entertaining

[BobMc]

In for a penny, in for a pound. Sold a Mar 31 $20 strike put for $6.00.

[Cono Este]

Sell a vertical in case it goes to 0. Leg into it if you can.

(No idea what it will do.)

[Kevo]

Another name for QE??

[BobMc]

Sold a Apr 6 $40 strike call for $5.00. Unless this shit goes tits up I should do pretty good.

[LongShortLong]

The main point is not who is more sympathetic or whatever, rather how do banks raise equity and find shareholders in this environment? We don't want depositors or banks to take risks but we do want investors and shareholders to take risks?

Should be a good time to start a bank. Rake in a bunch of deposits, buy those treasuries with the high interest rates (or make/buy loans, etc). Pay high interest rates to get more deposits. Have a nice competitive advantage vs legacy banks for the next 5-10 years while they wait out their investments. The better earnings will also attract investors.

Any small banks positioned to aggressively grow?

[MultiVerse]

Spider-Man meme. Before smartphones and twitter accelerated bank runs (SVB -$45 billion in a few days!) this is one of the ways things were quietly handled :

A group of financial institutions are in talks to deposit roughly $20 billion in First Republic, sources told CNBC's David Faber. The group includes Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and others, the sources said.

The deal is not done yet, the sources said. The plan does not call for an of acquisition of First Republic. The sources noted the amount was a moving target. Other reports said the deposit boost could be as much as $30 billion.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/16/grou...urces-say.html


Also, needing a $30 billion infusion more or less sinks Barnett Frank's "all is well" argument.

[Mustonen]

Another name for QE??

Maybe. It’s more of a one year fully collateralized loan. I don’t think you’ll see a lot of banks using that source of collateral to fund lending activity, but I’m probably wrong there.

Should be a good time to start a bank. Rake in a bunch of deposits, buy those treasuries with the high interest rates (or make/buy loans, etc). Pay high interest rates to get more deposits. Have a nice competitive advantage vs legacy banks for the next 5-10 years while they wait out their investments. The better earnings will also attract investors.

Any small banks positioned to aggressively grow?

How much do you suppose you’ll have to pay for those deposits? Nobody’s raking in deposits right now except the really big players. You’ll still be underwater, just a little less underwater than the other guys, and you won’t have any non-interest income flowing through to offset it and no lending or risk management capacity to chase higher yield.

But you should try it.

[JaytaeMoney]

Should be a good time to start a bank. Rake in a bunch of deposits, buy those treasuries with the high interest rates (or make/buy loans, etc). Pay high interest rates to get more deposits. Have a nice competitive advantage vs legacy banks for the next 5-10 years while they wait out their investments. The better earnings will also attract investors.

Any small banks positioned to aggressively grow?

Ignoring the fact that it is nearly impossible to charter a new bank after Dodd Frank:

So you're gonna go buy treasuries at... what, 3-4%? Plenty of existing commercial banks out there paying that amount or more for deposits so you'll have to do a lot better than that to steal their customers, leading to a net interest margin that will be underwater or close to it. Great business plan you've got there.

[skaredshtles]

So you're gonna go buy treasuries at... what, 3-4%? Plenty of existing commercial banks out there paying that amount or more for deposits so you'll have to do a lot better than that to steal their customers, leading to a net interest margin will be underwater or close to it. Great business plan you've got there.

jUsT InVeSt tHoSe dEpOsItS In bItCoIn!!

[BobMc]

Whew, that was fun...

Started the day uneasy, watched FRC tumble down to the low 20's. When it started moving upwards a bit I sold a Mar 31 put with a strike of $20 for $6.00. Soon after I sold an April 6 call with a strike of $40 for $5.00. After the news of added liquidity for FRC it jumped back up into the mid 30's. When that happened I bought back my Mar 17 strike $35 put for $3.90, I'd sold it for $4.40 yesterday. It went back to low 30's and I sold a Mar 31 put with a strike of $34.50 for $10.20.

As it sits right now I own:

100 shares at a price of $38.24
An Apr 6 call with a strike of $40 (sold for $5.00)
A Mar 31 put with a strike of $20 (sold for $6.00)
A Mar 31 put with a strike of $34.50 (sold for $10.20)

I'm up $200 on puts I've sold and bought back so far. Ideally this thing gets north of $40 by the end of the month and I keep all of the premiums. If it does this again tomorrow I'll be off to the races again...

[JimmyCarter]

Whew, that was fun...

Started the day uneasy, watched FRC tumble down to the low 20's. When it started moving upwards a bit I sold a Mar 31 put with a strike of $20 for $6.00. Soon after I sold an April 6 call with a strike of $40 for $5.00. After the news of added liquidity for FRC it jumped back up into the mid 30's. When that happened I bought back my Mar 17 strike $35 put for $3.90, I'd sold it for $4.40 yesterday. It went back to low 30's and I sold a Mar 31 put with a strike of $34.50 for $10.20.

As it sits right now I own:

100 shares at a price of $38.24
An Apr 6 call with a strike of $40 (sold for $5.00)
A Mar 31 put with a strike of $20 (sold for $6.00)
A Mar 31 put with a strike of $34.50 (sold for $10.20)

I'm up $200 on puts I've sold and bought back so far. Ideally this thing gets north of $40 by the end of the month and I keep all of the premiums. If it does this again tomorrow I'll be off to the races again...

Nice work so far Bob!
Thought the drama was over but now it’s down 20% AH?? On no news?

[Cono Este]

I don’t think I’m going out on a limb here by saying that FRC vol is too cheap?

What a day.

[dunfree]

Should be a good time to start a bank. Rake in a bunch of deposits, buy those treasuries with the high interest rates (or make/buy loans, etc). Pay high interest rates to get more deposits. Have a nice competitive advantage vs legacy banks for the next 5-10 years while they wait out their investments. The better earnings will also attract investors.

Any small banks positioned to aggressively grow?

BHRB soon to be on the Nasdaq, maybe. It’s the bank I mentioned

[LeeLau]

Nice work so far Bob!
Thought the drama was over but now it’s down 20% AH?? On no news?

Div cut. Sold 2 rounds of puts today and bought them back. Hoping the shenanigans continue tomorrow.

WAL is boring compared to FRC. Quite the roller coaster

[JimmyCarter]

Div cut. Sold 2 rounds of puts today and bought them back. Hoping the shenanigans continue tomorrow.

WAL is boring compared to FRC. Quite the roller coaster

How the hell does a dividend cut even register after an 80% share drop, let alone for that much value?