Results 17,601 to 17,625 of 18222
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03-15-2023, 01:43 PM #17601I drink it up
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Is the stock market going to tank?
I don’t think bank failures are anywhere near as common as schools, automakers, or medical facility failures. But I didn’t do my own research and may well be wrong. And it’s hard to be reckless in that space, not that you can’t make bad decisions.
But yeah, people assume that the regulators are all up in their shit so they don’t have to be. I’m not sure I agree that it allows the banks to be reckless, because the regulators mostly are all up in their shit.focus.
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03-15-2023, 01:48 PM #17602
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03-15-2023, 01:50 PM #17603
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03-15-2023, 01:54 PM #17604
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03-15-2023, 01:56 PM #17605
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03-15-2023, 02:00 PM #17606
If you look at a 5y chart of CS I think that’s going to happen to a lot of banks. A grind lower on profitability reserves.
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03-15-2023, 02:01 PM #17607
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03-15-2023, 02:02 PM #17608
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03-15-2023, 02:05 PM #17609
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03-15-2023, 02:11 PM #17610
I had a small bank (6? branches at the time) who had a parrot as a logo. BITD, the parrot would tell the owner to approve the loan. They’ve since changed to have a massive atm network, more branches, and the average age of their customer has dropped substantially below 71
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03-15-2023, 02:12 PM #17611
the deposit guarantee wasn’t the issue, explicit or implicit, the issue was the SV podcast dildii want an implicit continuity guarantee. They want always on guaranteed banking. Most bank failure depositors get their money bake, sometimes with minimal interruption (I banked with wamu)
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03-15-2023, 02:16 PM #17612
The argument is the old 6 branch bank grew large enough to become systemically significant but not large enough to be closely regulated like mega-banks. If we're going to backstop all deposits and therefore need to regulate all systemically significant banks like mega-banks then it makes more sense to just have mega-banks.
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03-15-2023, 03:30 PM #17613
Is the stock market going to tank?
Bank of America has $113 Billion of unrealized losses on its balance sheet
This represents >60% of tangible book value
BAC stock is unchanged since 1997.
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03-15-2023, 03:45 PM #17614I drink it up
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They’ll only be realized if they’re forced to sell, and they’ll only sell if it makes financial sense to do so OR if they have to liquidate investments prior to maturity, and they’ll only have to liquidate investments if they have an issue with liquidity, and they’ll only have an issue with liquidity if their ample cash reserves and other sources of liquidity are inadequate to cover operations and deposit outflows. Except the BTFP will make that unnecessary anyways.
Unrealized losses in the system are off the charts, and are no longer the easy or attractive source of liquidity they were always considered. That’s what a sustained record low rate environment plus rapid rate hikes does.focus.
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03-15-2023, 04:30 PM #17615That’s what a sustained record low rate environment plus rapid rate hikes does.I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.
"Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"
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03-15-2023, 04:38 PM #17616
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03-15-2023, 04:40 PM #17617I drink it up
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Is the stock market going to tank?
As long as liquidity is managed and capital is adequate to bridge a low earnings environment it’s ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
Nobody was giving anybody credit for substantial unrealized gains on the balance sheet heading into COVID. But an unrealized loss gets us all a flutter. Whatever. The story is panic and small number of non-diverse large depositors and all the juice getting pulled out of the market by the fed. Shit’s awful dry around here.
Could use some lube.focus.
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03-15-2023, 04:50 PM #17618I drink it up
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Sorta. Unclear to me if they had to or just saw an opportunity to chase profits, I’m sure liquidity was a part of the discussion either way. $80B at 1.8% for ten years with prognosticators indicating sustained high interest rate markets. Take $1.8B in losses to turn $20B into 6% assets for ten years or ride it out for ten years and maybe let them crater further? You do the math.
focus.
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03-15-2023, 05:43 PM #17619
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03-15-2023, 05:51 PM #17620
Interesting.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...er-svb-failure
Someone should start a twitter thread and reverse that $15 billion inflow of deposits.
But short the stock before you hit send."We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch
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03-15-2023, 06:28 PM #17621
My call sold at about 2:00 when the underlying moved up to $33. I set an order to buy it back at $6.50, figured if I could make $150 in a couple hours I’d take it. It tailed off going into close and my buy it back order filled at six minutes till close, it then closed at $31.16.
After hours FRC has moved to $32.38. I know I lost $6.50 of downside protection by moving out of the call but I’m going to see what happens pre-market and hopefully I can sell an even juicier call tomorrow.
I’m hoping to make about 2k on this trade if things go marginally well. Of course I could lose about 7k if everything goes tits up all of a sudden.
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03-15-2023, 06:49 PM #17622
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03-15-2023, 06:53 PM #17623
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03-15-2023, 07:17 PM #17624
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03-15-2023, 07:25 PM #17625Registered User
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