Is the stock market going to tank?

**Stu Gotz** · 04-30-2019, 10:32 AM

Silicon Valley has somehow normalized massively unprofitable businesses as not just perfectly natural, but healthy and investable at scale.

Maybe I'm just the stupid one, but this seems like an ominous signal.

**Cono Este** · 04-30-2019, 10:35 AM

Maybe time to short again, but it feels like we go higher.

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**Stu Gotz** · 04-30-2019, 04:34 PM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

Maybe time to short again, but it feels like we go higher.

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You’re probably right. If a bad Google miss doesn’t faze the market..???

**4matic** · 05-01-2019, 10:34 AM

GOOG is a warning shot that ad sales revenue supporting internet stocks is becoming a shell game. Global advertising spend only grows at 3% thereabouts so revenue can’t grow for all these companies. Instagram is the short term winner by miles.

I suspect content wars to start showing winners and losers soon too. There’s just too many if you include the distributors like dish and Comcast.

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**splat** · 05-01-2019, 11:55 AM

Still room in the pot market for some profit?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oppor...131720301.html

**406** · 05-01-2019, 12:22 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

GOOG is a warning shot that ad sales revenue supporting internet stocks is becoming a shell game.

If google is having troubles, I wonder how is facebook making money? Just from Instagram? Everyone claims to have quite facebook, but maybe they are still just scrolling and clicking on ads? I did notice an article today that facebook is going to focus on group conversations...isn't that just email? But I never understood/liked facebook. Seems like a strong sell to me.

**4matic** · 05-01-2019, 12:42 PM

Originally Posted by 406

If google is having troubles, I wonder how is facebook making money? Just from Instagram? Everyone claims to have quite facebook, but maybe they are still just scrolling and clicking on ads? I did notice an article today that facebook is going to focus on group conversations...isn't that just email? But I never understood/liked facebook. Seems like a strong sell to me.

Facebook/Instagram is leading the shell game right now. Instagram stories is so efficient to distribute advertising. Group conversations improvement is to compete with WeChat.

**4matic** · 05-01-2019, 01:48 PM

A new dynamic is social shopping. Whereas advertising is injected directly into group conversations and shoppers can act together. In China this is a $400billion annual business. In the US it’s less than $10b. That’s what FB has an advantage in to pursue. Instagram is influence driven more than any other platform.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sek...rce-china/amp/

**dunfree** · 05-01-2019, 01:58 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

A new dynamic is social shopping. Whereas advertising is injected directly into group conversations and shoppers can act together.

remember when bc.com was pitching the wonders of "social commerce" back in 2007? the advertorial content some brands have injected into this messageboard <cough DPS cough >?

**4matic** · 05-01-2019, 02:53 PM

The September 2018 high in the E-mini 2961.25. Last week high was 2961.00. I’m not an expert at double tops but..it’s possible.

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**GBB** · 05-01-2019, 11:33 PM

I think y’all are underestimating the amount of companies out there that consider Facebook Ads an integral part of their tech stack. Organizations are still throwing money at Google Ads and Facebook Ads. How long that spending spree lasts is a different story.

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**SkiCougar** · 05-02-2019, 11:25 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

The September 2018 high in the E-mini 2961.25. Last week high was 2961.00. I’m not an expert at double tops but..it’s possible.

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with the fed still doing QT until the fall and apparently not cutting rates, the sell in may deal is probably a good idea and look for new ATHs once QT ends in October, I think.

**Game Over** · 05-05-2019, 07:56 PM

BREAKING: Dow Jones reports that China is now considering canceling trade talks set for this week due to Trump’s surprise tariff threat. Futures slide to session lows, with Dow Industrial Average poised for 470+ point drop tomorrow. via @CNBCnow

**grinch** · 05-05-2019, 09:57 PM

The art of the surplise!!!

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**Game Over** · 05-06-2019, 04:27 PM

Wow not bad at all.
DOW only down .25% and NASDAQ NYSE and S&P down .5%

**Brock Landers** · 05-06-2019, 07:38 PM

Stock market being relatively strong doesn’t mean the economy is weak either

Sure rates are low, were things so much better in 1983 when rates were very high? Or 1992? 98? 2006?

**Stu Gotz** · 05-06-2019, 11:35 PM

This will certainly be interesting. Two parties who bargain in bad faith squaring off against each other.

**Game Over** · 05-07-2019, 11:41 AM

Falling big today

**4matic** · 05-07-2019, 11:49 AM

Double tops gain traction when the move accelerates away. Next real support is around 2800.

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**Name Redacted** · 05-07-2019, 11:56 AM

Interesting article about inflation:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/425...=mw_quote_news

**4matic** · 05-08-2019, 03:42 PM

Never understood the run up in STMP. It’s a low margin shipping portal.

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**Cono Este** · 05-08-2019, 07:10 PM

This has been a massive uptrend. I rarely look at charts anymore, but even in the sell off in December we were never in a down trend according to what I look at.

I still think it’s coming though. Especially if Trump gets 4 more yrs.

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**4matic** · 05-09-2019, 09:37 AM

Good timing:

The Federal Communications Commission voted unanimously on Thursday to deny China Mobile Ltd's bid to provide U.S. telecommunications services, citing risks that the Chinese government could use the approval to conduct espionage against the U.S. government.

China Mobile, which is owned by the Chinese government, sought approval in 2011 to provide interconnection services for phone calls between the United States and other countries. The approval would have given it enhanced access to U.S. telephone lines, fiber-optic cable, cellular networks and communications satellites.

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**rod9301** · 05-09-2019, 09:43 AM

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Stock market being relatively strong doesn’t mean the economy is weak either

Sure rates are low, were things so much better in 1983 when rates were very high? Or 1992? 98? 2006?

Yeah, in 1983 valuations were really low, so returns for the next 15+years were outstanding.

Not the same today at all.

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