Is the stock market going to tank?

[MiddleOfNight]

video on how narratives in our heads makes it hard to remember that markets crash and then eventually come back - interested in anyone's thoughts

A voice of reason.
Makes sense to me.

guess we'll see.

[bennymac]

He later deleted this tweet. I wonder why? Or maybe I just have Trump derangement syndrome and my criticism is unwarranted and hyper partisan.

[Cono Este]

The last great Bear Mkt was in the 70’s. The mkt peaked at Dow 1000, lost half its value, and took 10 yrs to recover. Only small caps performed decently.

I believe in history repeating itself. I’ve all but given up waiting for it, never happened in my career, not 97, not 2001-2003, and not 2008.

People complained in 2008, even the dentists.

Well how is 10 yrs going to feel? There are going to be a lot of piston airplanes for sale.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[4matic]

2007 high? 35 year weekly chart

[Toadman]

This dude is going to be busy...

[Benny Profane]

He later deleted this tweet. I wonder why? Or maybe I just have Trump derangement syndrome and my criticism is unwarranted and hyper partisan.

His company is getting hammered. Resorts (Golf! Already half dead!) and hotels. Now oligarchs pulling back to cover positions instead of buying apartments. heh heh.

Justice. Karma. Bitch slap.

[Toadman]

Dude needs more than just a bitch slap. Kick to the groin and a few kidney punches is a good start.

[iceman]

Wouldn't it be delicious if they went under? man.

[Benny Profane]

This dude is going to be busy...

Covid 19 don't discriminate between commies or Christians.

[TBS]

Attachment 321314

Chart is worthless without legend and source.
Guessing it’s not from POTUS or it would be annotated in sharpie

[goldenboy]

video on how narratives in our heads makes it hard to remember that markets crash and then eventually come back - interested in anyone's thoughts

Great video. People think this is '08 again. I suppose it might be. But the 9/11 recession is much more similar thus far, and that was just a blip in the end...

[3213256479+8]

Chart is worthless without legend and source.
Guessing it’s not from POTUS or it would be annotated in sharpie

My bad, it's Goldman Sachs GDP forecast.

This is going to make 08 look like a boom year. Thoughts & prayers for the levered utopians.

[rideit]

Great video. People think this is '08 again. I suppose it might be. But the 9/11 recession is much more similar thus far, and that was just a blip in the end...

From what I recall, 9/11 didn’t cause the entire global economy to collapse?
Maybe I’m wrong?

[Benny Profane]

That sounds absurdly optimistic from my view (representing small businesses). I won't be surprised if small biz bankruptcies are double the wake of the 2008 crash -- or worse. Hell, we might be at or near the bottom 18 months from now. Or maybe in the middle of a 3+ year W-shaped roller coaster. L-shaped recovery curves happen in demographically top heavy economies.

I think you hit on something with demographics. Duh. We're in the maybe second quarter of the Boomer bulge getting dumped out by the python. The oldest Boomer is 74. Eleven more years before the last turns 65. So, many business owners still in that group. Lots of guys sitting behind desks (as they well deserve, after years of toil building the biz), on the down slope, preparing to cash in by selling soon, and, bam, lights out. Ceiling falls on your ass. Those people aren't coming back. They can't. It's too late. Maybe a few, but, c'mon. It's like getting laid off at 53 with no transfereble skills. Game over. Major lifestyle change.

[TBS]

He later deleted this tweet. I wonder why? Or maybe I just have Trump derangement syndrome and my criticism is unwarranted and hyper partisan.

Probably because he was offloading equities faster than a drug boat dumping cargo with Coast Guard on his tail

[3213256479+8]

Demographic atrophy is definitely a headwind.

GFC caused GDP to dip about 4-5%ish. 9/11 less than that. This is looking like a 25% hit in the US. And with severe global funding issues as ex-US concerns fail under the weight of a surging dollar. Also loads more sovereign & ex-govt debt that needs to be serviced. Govts can only keep the peace with helicopter money, but with supply chain disruption + helicopter money, inflation is a serious concern. Bonds hate inflation, so they're likely to collapse & render the international money & financial system insolvent on a level so far underwater a full monetary regime reset will be needed before activity can normalize. And when it does normalize it's likely to be much more localized, read: inefficient, higher cost.

[goldenboy]

From what I recall, 9/11 didn’t cause the entire global economy to collapse?
Maybe I’m wrong?

I can't find a good source, but yeah, I think the 9/11 recession was fairly widespread. Regardless, I think this is a lot like 9/11 in terms of fear and uncertainty. If there is still a supply side crash as well as multiple industries grinding to a halt several months or years from now, yeah it will be bad. But if things can get back under control in 3 months or so (like it looks like they somewhat have in China), the Covid recession will be a blip. That's my $.02.

[rideit]

Well, let’s all hope for that.

[Toadman]

Did someone say a blimp?

[Kevo]

I can't find a good source, but yeah, I think the 9/11 recession was fairly widespread. Regardless, I think this is a lot like 9/11 in terms of fear and uncertainty. If there is still a supply side crash as well as multiple industries grinding to a halt several months or years from now, yeah it will be bad. But if things can get back under control in 3 months or so (like it looks like they somewhat have in China), the Covid recession will be a blip. That's my $.02.

I'm expecting false optimism and a recovery of about 50% of stock losses when cases in the US slow down in the summer and a full on panic when they pick back up in the fall.

I'm rooting for a $MTN bankruptcy when ski resorts don't open again in the fall. Maybe CB can burn Rob Katz at the stake during Vinitok this year.

[up an down]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/clea...e-sources.html ,...........and I expect that this won't be the last

[goldenboy]

I'm expecting false optimism and a recovery of about 50% of stock losses when cases in the US slow down in the summer and a full on panic when they pick back up in the fall.

I'm rooting for a $MTN bankruptcy when ski resorts don't open again in the fall. Maybe CB can burn Rob Katz at the stake during Vinitok this year.

Hopefully not. Definitely too much collateral damage.

[Kevo]

Hopefully not. Definitely too much collateral damage.

Would be a dream for the towns of CB and Mt CB to somehow buy the resort for pennies on the dollar. The fed is going to be purchasing muni bonds. There may be a way...

[rideit]

I’ll be kind of amazed if Snow King makes it through this without more Chapman bailouts.

[4matic]

I’ve posted this before. I also listen to and read Howard Marks. Risk is the definition of getting real:

From Bill Bernstein.

“A lot of people had won the game before the [2008] crisis happened: They had pretty much saved enough for retirement, and they were continuing to take risk by investing in equities.

Afterward, many of them sold either at or near the bottom and never bought back into it. And those people have irretrievably damaged themselves.

I began to understand this point 10 or 15 years ago, but now I’m convinced: When you’ve won the game, why keep playing it?

How risky stocks are to a given investor depends upon which part of the life cycle he or she is in. For a younger investor, stocks aren’t as risky as they seem. For the middle-aged, they’re pretty risky. And for a retired person, they can be nuclear-level toxic.


Bernstein recommends a rule of thumb, based on annuity payouts and spending patterns late in life, that you should have 20-25 times your residual living expenses (after pensions/Social Security) invested solely in safe assets. No stocks at all. This should be in TIPS, SPIAs, and short-term bonds. If you have more than that, that’s your “risk portfolio,”

It’s a shame that backward looking “financial models” have destroyed another generation of older investors chasing “returns” in the stock market