Results 15,901 to 15,925 of 18218
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05-18-2022, 10:08 PM #15901
Pretty sure this thread is rife with folks pulling their money out of the market. Pretty sure I just read a block text of bullshit. A year from now I’m going to regret not putting more funds into certain aspects of the market.
Keep putting money into the market and you will thank yourself later on.
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05-18-2022, 10:22 PM #15902
Parts of what you say are correct and spot on to why we may just need a hard long low. Continue to invest ALWAYS it's all you got.
Beware of Ms though, this next one will feel brutal. Multi-year low right on the Retirement of many Overoptimistic Boomers.
At least this isn't in the 20% interest stable coin sub.
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05-18-2022, 11:20 PM #15903
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05-19-2022, 03:47 AM #15904
I’m mostly referring to PPP, how it was administered and that it was almost entirely forgiven. A lot of people whose incomes were unchanged received free cash. Me included.
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05-19-2022, 03:52 AM #15905
Alot of boomers stayed overly invested in equities. 20 yrs of low interest rates forced them to, but it still worked out.
There is a lot of cash on the sidelines but this time around, with higher rates, it’s not all going into equities.
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05-19-2022, 04:03 AM #15906
They will bleed hard if we don’t see new highs like we did in the 2000’s. Especially those who’ve only just retired. They will be back to work or broke if this one is long lasting.
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05-19-2022, 07:56 AM #15907
An argument that the market has found a level near fair valuation:
https://www.fidelity.com/learning-ce...t-turns-corner
After falling nearly 20% on an intraday basis, stocks are now fairly valued, in my opinion.
At the same time, anticipated inflation rates have declined in recent weeks, which should help reduce the uncertainty that has been roiling markets.
By several measures, stocks are also beginning to look notably oversold.
Taken together, these developments could help stocks finally begin to find their footing.Originally Posted by blurred
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05-19-2022, 08:09 AM #15908
^^^ All the experts are wrong.
Not really, but to try a predict what will happen over the next 6 month to 2 years is damn near impossible except using broad generalizations. FWIW I think Timmer sums things up well.
And to have experts (CE & NS) on a ski forum call a bottom or predict the next recession is laughable.
We were long overdue a correction. See where it goes from here.I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.
"Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"
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05-19-2022, 08:17 AM #15909
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05-19-2022, 08:17 AM #15910Registered User
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doubtful just invested $1,000 in gear this morning my dividen check was a tad light this year but you know
we will be back at all time highs on the stock market by late tuesday afternoon
the future looks very bright as long as your in the top 20% of earners in the america today and live in a prosperous location in this country
the other 80% don't seem to have that cash flow to piss away on cheap throw away plastic crap that litters the side of roads so yeah wall mart and target is down it won't last long because we have this desperate need to buy junk to make ourselves feel good
2nd quarter gdp will be - .06% then they will start freely using the word recession (all these smart economists don't know shit they talk out of their asshole and use all kinds of facts figures and past history to try to be the one to predict what will happen tomorrow) as if they know what its like to be an average working class never going to get ahead blame immigrants for everything fat and lazy poor schlub in american today
most of my customers would be happy with shorter lead times on materials and lower costs on lumber
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05-19-2022, 08:19 AM #15911man of ice
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My bet is the market goes up and down some.
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05-19-2022, 08:37 AM #15912Rope->Dope
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05-19-2022, 08:37 AM #15913Registered User
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- Apr 2010
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05-19-2022, 08:58 AM #15914
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05-19-2022, 09:35 AM #15915
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05-19-2022, 09:39 AM #15916
.DXY close to a one month low. Down close to 2% from its recent high along with rates.
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05-19-2022, 09:45 AM #15917
Is the stock market going to tank?
The port blockade in Ukraine preventing food exports could become a UN humanitarian issue. If that happens and western militaries enforce export freedom wheat prices, and most soft commodity prices will fall.
G7 is meeting this week.
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05-19-2022, 09:48 AM #15918
Is the stock market going to tank?
SPY is only down 2.1% on the week. Could easily close flat.
The R2K is only down .5% on the week. Edit: unch on the week now.
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05-19-2022, 12:01 PM #15919
Hope is a drug and very powerful one, Hopium can blind you from the truth if you have to much in you.
India - Banning wheat exports. (Paywalled)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-b...of2&yptr=yahoo
Recession / Stagflation / Economy Not Working As Planned - Whatever you want to call it is a certainty and very easily forecasted.
Come back to this post circa May 2023 where I say the "market bottoms in the first Quarter 2023 (April)." Do not expect them to bottom the same day but within days or a few weeks.
Dow 29600 and then 25,000 - 26,000
NASDAQ 10800 then 7800 then 7200
S&P 500 3200 then 2800 then 2500
Sh*tCoin 28600 then 17600 then 10400 then 9800 (3rd Quarter Low this Year)
Oil $250+/ barrel by end of 2023
Trade Accordingly. If we loose one level we get support at the next. It is helpful to know where those painful stops actually are though. Markets never move in straight lines.
And yields will need to be higher than inflation before Bonds will work as hoped for any substantial holding period. If inflation remains persistent, as I am laying out, bonds return of capital feature will become decimated by said inflation.
Rising interest rates help unload ships faster? Do farmers grow more wheat with higher rates? Oil companies find more oil with higher rates? The FED does not have the tool kit to fight these problems and Government Polytricksters are not helping because they are dumb.
We have systematic shortages developing in FOOD. That leads to Civil Unrest 100% of the time. Sri Lanka?
Buy some non perishable food you will thank me later.I'm cool with this, as long as you Kirkwood Bro Brah's stay away from Heavenly when 88 closes- TahoeBc
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05-19-2022, 12:06 PM #15920
Is the stock market going to tank?
“Don’t you know there are people starving in Africa”
America has 10 trillion in calorie reserves they can burn off.
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05-19-2022, 12:10 PM #15921
“There If inflation remains persistent, as I am laying out, bonds return of capital feature will become decimated by said inflation.”
Pretty sure we have a printing press so you will get capital returned in some form…in treasury.
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05-19-2022, 12:51 PM #15922Registered User
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That’s what’s so scary. We haven’t seen anywhere near as bad as what’s to come. There are some fundamental forces being set in motion.
I’m sure I don’t need to tell you this, but for the benefit of others, when the covid crash occurred, the fed pumped $4.5T into the economy by buying up corporate bonds and mortgage backed securities. This, and lowering interest rates provided liquidity that helped the stock market recover and take off from there.
The economy got hot, we’ll sort of, and along came inflation. So now the fed wants to take those purchases off their balance sheet and also increase interest rates. There is no way that those two acts will not have a negative impact on the market. If the opposite of those two acts propped the market up, the inverse must surely have the opposite effect.
The thing is, the interest rate increases have barely started. I can’t see those not continuing to for many months to come, until inflation backs down substantially.
And QT hasn’t even started. They quit buying the corporate bonds and mortgages. The next step is to let them “roll-off” the balance sheet as they mature. This part starts next month, capped by a certain amount. The cap increases in later months, and eventually the fed will actually start selling its inventory.
So this downward pressure on the market is going to increase gradually over several months, and it is not going away in a few days.
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05-19-2022, 01:26 PM #15923
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05-19-2022, 01:33 PM #15924Registered User
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05-19-2022, 01:39 PM #15925
Do I need to go quote you 10 pages back, or quote myself the last 10yrs?
I take this shit seriously, it’s not politics, and I think my calls speak to my experience as a professional who was trained by plank members of major exchanges. I’m no genius, im no Lee lau, in fact I consider myself just above average, but they’re is no Poly ass in me when I know people are playing with their savings.
I never had a losing month in my career. Couple months I didn’t make expenses, but not bad.
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