Is the stock market going to tank?

**m2711c** · 03-08-2021, 05:00 PM

yeah, AMKBY seems a better ocean going play than CCL right now...

**m2711c** · 03-08-2021, 05:17 PM

Originally Posted by LeeLau

Depends. I just got a 50% profit on the RIOT 50Cs in 1 hour so I took it. Usually I will start considering an early roll or cover if 80 - 90% of profit and there's a week or more to go especially if there's a price spike in the underlying on which to roll the call

So I really should be paying close attention to what’s going on throughout the contract to both the current price for the option and the underlying to decide when to roll, as there may be opportunities to either improve my position or cut my loses.

OK, that makes sense to me. Thank you.

**CovertM** · 03-08-2021, 05:32 PM

Originally Posted by m2711c

So I really should be paying close attention to what’s going on throughout the contract to both the current price for the option and the underlying to decide when to roll, as there may be opportunities to either improve my position or cut my loses.

OK, that makes sense to me. Thank you.

Yes, but I think that depends on what the underlying is. Something with high IV ala RIOT, GME, RKT will have much quicker and drastic fluctuations to options pricing due to price movement in the underlying. That's at least my understanding.

I still can't bring myself to start slanging options on low IV boring stuff. Getting started with memestonk and crazy IV/ premiums is like starting out with Heroin and trying to switch to advil...

**MultiVerse** · 03-08-2021, 05:34 PM

Not a prediction but a question: is it starting to look like the 90s again?

Younger people can afford SF and NY
Full employment (we have a ways to go but job listings exceed pre-pandemic baseline)
Politics is boring
Receding political terrorism
Peaceful and orderly elections
Strong dollar (the US is once again at the forefront of technological progress)
Increasingly stable interest rates

**4matic** · 03-08-2021, 06:19 PM

The 90’s boom was sparked by low gasoline prices courtesy of gulf war and then technology. The average price per barrel was probably $15 for the entire decade of the 90’s. Too bad it brought us SUV’s and big trucks.

**4matic** · 03-08-2021, 06:22 PM

Daily 2% swings won’t surprise me. I’m not sure what a big move up in the dollar would cause but that’s a risk right now.

**LeeLau** · 03-08-2021, 07:44 PM

Originally Posted by CovertM

Sold RKT 29.89 for 3/19, still wondering what the div. will do to price movement ie. people selling
Closed some RIOT 80C and waiting for a bounce to sell more CC, missed it this morning.
Closed $50 & $60 GME CSP, kicking myself for not keeping at least 100 token shares to sell calls with, premiums are bananas.

Trying to be diligent and not re sell CC after closing on down days. Assuming it pays to wait for a bounce to resell CC and capitalize on premium increase?

I almost never regret waiting for a bounce to sell CC. I never did get that bounce for RIOT to refill my CCs. The RIOT call buyers tend to overpay early in the morning so that's when I do get the best fills. Mentioned this before but I usually sit on the ask and let the buyers come to me which helps when spreads are huge

Originally Posted by dschane

You guys will have to explain CCL and the other big cruise companies to me. I get six flags, and I like GE and the airline stocks (am partial to ALK). But the cruise companies took on a shit ton of debt and diluted their stock, and the best case seems to be that they will resume cruising in June/July but at 50-70% capacity. I doubt they will require that all passengers be vaccinated, but either way, one variant outbreak and the re-opening goes bust. Canada already closed its ports through Feb. 2022, so no cruising to Alaska. I get that they're shares are surging these days, but are we talking buys for the longer term? I wouldn't touch them with a 10-foot pole beyond 2 months - what am I missing?

I agree wrt to NCLH and CCL. RCL may be a bit better in that respect but that's with the knowledge I have now. They've diluted af and have a pile of debt. My target is by no means the pre-COVID 60s. I think I will start thinking of selling at 30 which may happen by end of year if momentum continues. My avg is 12 so my goals are much more measured then some of the sell side analysts who are citing targets of 40+. Basically I wanted some exposure to old rich people and that was CCL. For the record I also don't expect a dividend.

CCs on NCLH CCL and RCL are also poor so they don't fit my criteria as long term stocks to wheel. I doubt I'll hold past my 30 target for CCL

Originally Posted by m2711c

So I really should be paying close attention to what’s going on throughout the contract to both the current price for the option and the underlying to decide when to roll, as there may be opportunities to either improve my position or cut my loses.

OK, that makes sense to me. Thank you.

I ask myself. Can the collateral I post be used elsewhere more effectively? That makes the decision for me. Also your broker commish costs may be a factor. CCs and CSPs, for me, tend to be smallish amounts (ie $ 1k or less) with the exception of positions I have where the underlying has ballooned (GME, RIOT). IBKR commissions are reasonable but if you're at Questrade paying $25 to open or close then it becomes a factor for rolling. So----- it depends??

**LeeLau** · 03-09-2021, 09:06 AM

Started RIOT 50 and 55C when underlying hit 46.

Sold a couple of GME 180P for the lolz

**BobMc** · 03-09-2021, 08:41 PM

Wouldn’t mind an XOM temporary tumble tomorrow before hours, dividend day! As it stands I’m looking at 4.3 free (kinda) shares tomorrow.

Looks like stimulus will pass the house tomorrow, within days stimulus money should transfer to accounts. So far I’ve got the go ahead to use all of it for the market.

I probably shouldn’t put more into energy but I’m probably not going to be able to help myself. Debating between adding more MMP which yields an eye popping 9.21% or throwing it at FE. Not as much yield on FE at a current 4.67% but still not bad. Looks like Carl Icahn will be joining the board, interim CEO made permanent yesterday, should help in moving past the bribery scandal and perhaps lead to higher share price.

I’ve discovered a few more kernels of info in TDAmeritrade so I still may yet find something that catches my eye out of the energy realm.

**BobMc** · 03-09-2021, 09:18 PM

Originally Posted by dschane

You guys will have to explain CCL and the other big cruise companies to me. I get six flags, and I like GE and the airline stocks (am partial to ALK). But the cruise companies took on a shit ton of debt and diluted their stock, and the best case seems to be that they will resume cruising in June/July but at 50-70% capacity. I doubt they will require that all passengers be vaccinated, but either way, one variant outbreak and the re-opening goes bust. Canada already closed its ports through Feb. 2022, so no cruising to Alaska. I get that they're shares are surging these days, but are we talking buys for the longer term? I wouldn't touch them with a 10-foot pole beyond 2 months - what am I missing?

I’m still holding my 100 shares of Carnival, I paid $12 for them. They took on a ton of debt, sold a lot of shares. But, by doing so they assured themselves of solvency with no 2021 sailing. Will it come down to that? Quite possible, not widely reported yet but the first “Vaccination Cruise” was already canceled today. They were attempting a cruise from Israel (extremely high vaccination rate) but had to cancel after a few crew members tested positive.

As I’ve said many times in this thread, Carnival has a large following. After we get through this shit they’ll be able to set their prices where they may and people will pay. Message boards posts and social media about cruises has been picking up significantly, it will pay off. I also predict a boost in on board earnings, people loose from their house will be spending more on on-board purchases. Alcohol, casino, up charged restaurants will all see a boost.

It seems excursions will at first be limited to Carnival approved activities. No more getting off the boat and doing your own thing, you’ll have to go along with what the line has arranged in ports. This will limit a certain amount of people from cruising but I think the overall demand will still be there and be enough to fill those folk’s cabins. Obviously the effect on the bottom line from that will be hefty. Carnival makes a decent amount of cash via excursions.

I’m not sure on the percentage of folks getting off the boat that go on Carnival excursions, but I’d guess 30% would be a high number. Make that number 100% and some profits are definitely there to be found. It’ll be hard to pull off logistically but you gotta figure these cruise lines know most local officials and businesses pretty well.

Besides, I get $100 OBC every cruise for holding my 100 shares.

**dschane** · 03-09-2021, 10:36 PM

Personally, I'd take the profits and run. I will readily admit that I'm skewed by the fact that I wouldn't cruise in the most sanitary of times. That aside, when I think I'm being impartial, I'd say investing in them seems far riskier with less reward compared to investing in a lot of other companies out there. We're never going to hit herd immunity in the U.S. and certainly not globally. The pandemic will end, but corona ain't leaving us for time to come. Cruises, compared to other areas of the travel industry (such as airlines and hotels), seem particularly vulnerable. And, since their ships are flagged in Libya and the like and employ mostly foreign workers, congressional representatives from non-port states couldn't give a shit about them.

This thread has served me well, esp. with respect to CLAR and GE.

**Brock Landers** · 03-10-2021, 06:44 AM

Originally Posted by BobMc

I probably shouldn’t put more into energy but I’m probably not going to be able to help myself. Debating between adding more MMP which yields an eye popping 9.21% or throwing it at FE. Not as much yield on FE at a current 4.67% but still not bad. Looks like Carl Icahn will be joining the board, interim CEO made permanent yesterday, should help in moving past the bribery scandal and perhaps lead to higher share price.
.

Don’t think of midstream as energy. That’ll help you feel better about adding.

**CovertM** · 03-10-2021, 10:30 AM

Set some greedy limits to close CSP on MARA and RIOT.
Have a bunch of capital from CSPs freed up to sell CSP on GME when the top pops again. May move strikes up this time higher than $50, we'll see.

**4matic** · 03-10-2021, 11:47 AM

$200 range in GME.

**shera** · 03-10-2021, 12:32 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

$200 range in GME.

I just sold one single share of GME at $351. Still holding 9 more shares, cost basis $0 from averaging down from the Jan spike and then selling this runup. What ride...so much fun.

**Brock Landers** · 03-10-2021, 01:29 PM

Taking profits, nice!

**LeeLau** · 03-10-2021, 02:30 PM

Stimulus passed house. GME to 420.69

HAve a risk reversal on GME - long 150C short 120P. Price on that was -28 - / + 47 intraday. Madness

**klauss** · 03-10-2021, 04:05 PM

Hope you fellas bought your call options

https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comment...think_prepare/

**Toadman** · 03-10-2021, 04:10 PM

Gamma Squeeze. Not to be confused with Grandma's squeeze.

**4matic** · 03-10-2021, 04:28 PM

March is a quarterly expiration month. Lots of gamma to get sorted out before next Friday

**4matic** · 03-10-2021, 05:20 PM

10y rate only backed off a little and the dollar is still bumping up on resistance. Volatility is still high in bonds.

**CovertM** · 03-10-2021, 07:00 PM

Originally Posted by LeeLau

Stimulus passed house. GME to 420.69

HAve a risk reversal on GME - long 150C short 120P. Price on that was -28 - / + 47 intraday. Madness

Are you still long shares? My token handful is a great reminder, not sure I’ll let them go.

Read the link below, any credence? Ape logic? Definitely weird stuff today.

Probably stay on the sideline and sell CSP while it burns out.

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**LeeLau** · 03-10-2021, 07:03 PM

No link. Still got 1/5th of position on which I sell CCs in a non taxable account. Premiums are outrageous

**CovertM** · 03-10-2021, 08:45 PM

Originally Posted by LeeLau

No link. Still got 1/5th of position on which I sell CCs in a non taxable account. Premiums are outrageous

Sorry said below, meant above. Klauss shared above.

Really kicking myself for not keeping at least 100 at this point. Just looking at the option chain and drooling. I guess I could sell naked, but I’m not that wild...yet

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**LeeLau** · 03-10-2021, 10:02 PM

Originally Posted by CovertM

Sorry said below, meant above. Klauss shared above.

Really kicking myself for not keeping at least 100 at this point. Just looking at the option chain and drooling. I guess I could sell naked, but I’m not that wild...yet

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There's not enough short interest for a squeeze. Gamma or otherwise. Imo these are funds fucking funds. Also the option chain is so far ootm one can actually hedge now. However you have catalysts of stimulus money and pending earnings. But potentially a GME capital raise too. This thing can go to 500. It can just as easily go to 50.