Is the stock market going to tank?

[XXX-er]

well new neuron flashes, Trump is back on the increasing Candian Tarrifs and the 51st state but he hasn't started calling Carney the govenor yet !

[4matic]

If trade war resolves without too much treasury market turmoil it’s helping Fed slow economy and increase unemployment. Both necessary to get the upper hand on inflation.

[4matic]

MAGA finance reporter gasparino says wh trying to game the trade path by watching reactions in stock and bond market.

[MultiVerse]

Every (bad) tariff theory is cooked. It's over. Admin flunky's are quite literary saying they need a "face saving" exit strategy, what with America being a face culture and all. Now it's not so much gaming the trade path through markets as it is gaming their exit via the media. They already know the original plan is an economic catastrophe, but need to act tough for the media.

That does not mean however that the admin will pivot quickly enough to save the economy. This has been so badly executed that China holds the upper hand. China taking full advantage. They're not even talking to us yet. Meanwhile domestic trucking volumes are down around 9-percent, Chinese shipping container volume bound for America down 60-percent.

1st quarter numbers should look ok-ish due to tariff front-running & cooling inflation. The big question/bet is what's the second quarter going to look like?

[J. Barron DeJong]

If trade war resolves without too much treasury market turmoil it’s helping Fed slow economy and increase unemployment. Both necessary to get the upper hand on inflation.

Wut?

I'm pretty certain the Fed would have said thanks-but-no-thanks if they were offered tariffs (but especially THESE traffis) as a way to help them with meeting their inflation and employment targets.

(Of course since they're required to maintain their staunch independence, their actual public response would be 'no comment&#39

[4matic]

Dollar getting hammered is net positive for stocks.

[4matic]

Wut?

I'm pretty certain the Fed would have said thanks-but-no-thanks if they were offered tariffs (but especially THESE traffis) as a way to help them with meeting their inflation and employment targets.

(Of course since they're required to maintain their staunch independence, their actual public response would be 'no comment')

So you’re agreeing with me? As I said, the risk is a broken treasury market. If they were to cut and the treasury market breaks they’ve lost control. Could still lose control but that’s why we see caution. It’s not simply inflation risk which is why they state it as risks to the economy.

[J. Barron DeJong]

So you’re agreeing with me? As I said, the risk is a broken treasury market. If they were to cut and the treasury market breaks they’ve lost control. Could still lose control but that’s why we see caution. It’s not simply inflation risk which is why they state it as risks to the economy.

No, not agreeing with you. The Fed is debating how to handle the increase in prices these tariffs are going to cause, while also trying to maintain employment levels. i.e. they're now debating how to handle upcoming stagflation.

[406]

Treasury market starting to implode might spook king don (like last week), but the tariffs are all about consolidation power and grift...so Im guessing he will keep at it, just keep trying ways until finds ones that do not cause treasury rates to go crazy. Until he doesnt care about that too. Although Wall st seems to think it is over and is now expecting a fed rate cut?!:eyeroll:

[liv2ski]

"1st quarter numbers should look ok-ish due to tariff front-running & cooling inflation. The big question/bet is what's the second quarter going to look like?"

Everything I read says it is going to be ugly and not to buy this dip today as the worst is yet to come. We'll see.

[jono]

No, not agreeing with you. The Fed is debating how to handle the increase in prices these tariffs are going to cause, while also trying to maintain employment levels. i.e. they're now debating how to handle upcoming stagflation.

Point of order: shrinkflation. Is there anyone left that doesn't expect negative growth at this point?

"Shrinkflation good, USD bad" is 2025th level cope.

[jono]

I tried to sell a put on TECS today and if we don't open sharply down right from the jump I'll try again tomorrow.

[yeahman]

Chickened out and sold my recently purchased SP500 fund shares a couple days ago. Took the few thousand I made and gave it to a local nonprofit for adults with disabilities that wanted to buy a fleet of kayaks for their people to use. According to an article in the paper the other day, flatwater kayaking is something these folks can do and they love it.

If I'd sold today I would have made an additional four thousand. I don't care though, I just wanted out. I don't have the stomach for this chaos. I sleep much better with cash in my mattress. [emoji28]

[J. Barron DeJong]

Point of order: shrinkflation. Is there anyone left that doesn't expect negative growth at this point? "Shrinkflation good, USD bad" is 2025th level cope.

Yeah, my bad. I've even said shrinkflation in here.

GDP forecasts from the Fed, from Goldman, have gone negative.

[yeahman]

Meeting with those CEOs yesterday was a wake up call for Trump. Them talking about empty store shelves this summer at Target and Walmart made him shit a brick. He's all about ego and there's no way he could pass the buck for that.

Pretty naive to think soft Americans could out-suffer a civilization as old and tough as China. Now they know how weak we truly are. Fortunately they still need us and they'll probably let him save face to save their own ass. As for Canada, there's a lot of pissed off farmers and ranchers in Montana right now who are already getting crushed by the uncertainty surrounding those tariffs. Big article in the paper yesterday about the farmers' union joining a lawsuit with the Blackfeet tribe challenging his authority to impose these tariffs. That's his base suing him. Not good optics.

[J. Barron DeJong]

I haven't seen any sign of China being willing to give an inch. They talk about needing to save face too; they can't be seen as giving it to a bully.

Or maybe they are just better negotiators than Trump.

[civilcoconut]

As for Canada, there's a lot of pissed off farmers and ranchers in Montana right now who are already getting crushed by the uncertainty surrounding those tariffs. Big article in the paper yesterday about the farmers' union joining a lawsuit with the Blackfeet tribe challenging his authority to impose these tariffs. That's his base suing him. Not good optics.

[skaredshtles]

[/FONT][/COLOR]

The faces... they are soooo delicious.

[neufox47]

How much of the current s&p 500 market value is being propped up by the assumption of increasing inflation and that the biggest firms will benefit from increasing prices like they did from Covid?


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[Cono Este]

Treasury mkt exploded yrs ago under crooked joe.


Good week for Tesla shareholders!

[m2711c]

which country you from again?

[J. Barron DeJong]

which country you from again?

All of them.

[Cono Este]

Born Canada, uk parents, lived Ca., Guatemala, Namibia, chile. Then naturalized US citizen at 20.

Stalkers should know this already. !

Numbskulls

[grinch]

Bless your heart

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[LeeLau]

3 weeks after I've been able to login and post. Nothing changes my conclusion that the US is irredeemable fucked.

Why did Trudeau do this?

Puts on SPY