Is the stock market going to tank?

[Name Redacted]

CARES act allows for a few new strategies with retirement accts:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bobcarl.../#1c4e5e9534f5

A few highlights are waiving the 10% penalty for early withdrawal, and upping the allowable loan to $100K

So take out a loan, and buy a few 80 series land cruisers to rebuild and sell before paying back the loan next year?

[4matic]

you could do what I did, sell some of your vanguard and send that money to some brokerage where you can buy those inverse etfs.

I currently have a leveraged inverse etf that covers or hedges my vanguard which is mostly long, so I at least am not losing,

That's called getting both feet in shit.

[XXX-er]

I work in the midstream storage space and the market is in a large contango. I can confirm that many of our customers (including several major airlines) are desperate to contract for additional storage capacity.

I read somewhere they can't store jet fuel for very long ??

[jackstraw]

trump just shut down the country...

thanks for the laugh

[El Chupacabra]

IIRC Southwest bought gas contracts, locking in low prices when the sellers were desperate. Not actual purchase of liquid fuel that was stored in tanks for years.

[Mazderati]

I read somewhere they can't store jet fuel for very long ??

I think refined fuels are harder to store long-term in general. Not sure about the crude product but have to guess it stores reasonably well if stored properly. Anyone want to go in on a tanker?

IIRC Southwest bought gas contracts, locking in low prices when the sellers were desperate. Not actual purchase of liquid fuel that was stored in tanks for years.

My understanding as well.

[Name Redacted]

IIRC Southwest bought gas contracts, locking in low prices when the sellers were desperate. Not actual purchase of liquid fuel that was stored in tanks for years.

Yeah, should have been more clear. They basically buy credits/contracts for fuel at a certain price.

[4matic]

Contracts have a delivery requirement. I suppose they could sell contracts on delivery but there has to be a resolution. If they fix a cost but never use the commodity they will have to sell it lower. Typically that’s why they only hedge a portion of need.


“But today’s unexpected drop will have the opposite effect, with airlines required to pay the hedged amount, rather than the cheaper market price. For airlines with a hedging strategy, there’s a double blow: If their competitors aren’t hedged, they can price their tickets more inexpensively, creating an extra burden for airlines stuck paying at their hedged position.”

[Cono Este]

Quarter end marking?

I have to think April will bring new lows.

How are people going to react to these peaks? It’s going to get pretty emotional for some.

When will people start moving when they realize no one is ever going back to Vegas?, Stay in a hotel, take a needless vacation, Or won’t want to touch their cards and see their hand for yrs? That town is severely fucked.

Its going to take yrs for people to forget this shit and go back to stupid.


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[Toadman]

Quarter end marking?

I have to think April will bring new lows.

How are people going to react to these peaks? It’s going to get pretty emotional for some. Then people will start moving when they realize no one is ever going back to Vegas?, Stay in a hotel, take a needless vacation, Or won’t want to touch their cards and see their hand for yrs?

Is going to take yrs for people to forget this shit.


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Someone will have to invent a way for cards to be handled by a machine. It will be like those sci-fi movies in the future. Robots will dish out the cards, serve you drinks.

I can see a Blade Runner type scenario coming...

[El Chupacabra]

Its going to take yrs for people to forget this shit and go back to stupid.

IMHO you give the general public way too much credit.

Remember, 40%+ stand by Trump no matter what idiotic/corrupt/etc thing he does. Then there are those who maintain "it's all a hoax" or "it's just the flu." And then there are the spring breakers, the mega church goers, etc, etc...

[4matic]

I’d stay in a nice hotel and take a needless vacation when this settles. The public companies will take every measure to clean rooms. The problem I have is the disinfectant fragrance. As much as I loathe Las Vegas in general the reason I can’t go is the ubiquitous smell of Lysol and cigarettes.

[Benny Profane]

Quarter end marking?

I have to think April will bring new lows.

How are people going to react to these peaks? It’s going to get pretty emotional for some.

When will people start moving when they realize no one is ever going back to Vegas?, Stay in a hotel, take a needless vacation, Or won’t want to touch their cards and see their hand for yrs? That town is severely fucked.

Its going to take yrs for people to forget this shit and go back to stupid.


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Bright side is that you may see Lake Mead filling back up after all those idiots stop sucking water out of the Colorado for the stupid fountains and golf courses in the desert.

[Timberridge]

Not sure about the crude product but have to guess it stores reasonably well if stored properly.

It stores fine for around 200 million years or so.

[Mazderati]

It stores fine for around 200 million years or so.

Even when it's above ground? Wells are not easy to turn off from what I've read.

[Smoova]

I read somewhere they can't store jet fuel for very long ??

In a modern terminal following good practices, you can keep jet on spec for years.

[4matic]

Airlines can’t risk using out of date fuel. Maybe it can be repurposed back to heating oil.

[4matic]

In a modern terminal following good practices, you can keep jet on spec for years.

Not true?


The short answer is that, under most conditions, the shelf life of avgas is about one year. If you are a commercial operator, this is the end of the discussion.

[AdironRider]

Huh, I thought kerosene/av gas was supposed to be super stable?

Anyways, I doubt they are buying it and storing it in literal tanks. I assume futures contracts?

[Smoova]

Not true?


The short answer is that, under most conditions, the shelf life of avgas is about one year. If you are a commercial operator, this is the end of the discussion.

OK - I'll let Delta know that ...

[4matic]

OK - I'll let Delta know that ...

Just wondering that’s why the(?) Don’t they have there own refinery?

[dunfree]

Lol.

[Smoova]

Yes - Delta has a refinery in Trainer, PA and a large trading arm (Epsilon) that trades/owns barrels across the country. To your point, IME, jet is very rarely left in terminal for more than a few months without turning (because of historic demand), but our customers and QA/QC guys think it can be kept on spec for significantly longer. All this said, I'm just a lawyer, so my take on this matter is worth what you paid for it.

[liv2ski]

Anyways, I doubt they are buying it and storing it in literal tanks. I assume futures contracts?

This is the correct answer per what I read on Southwest strategy last time this happened.

[GeezerSteve]

Cross talking happening here. Delta fleet does not use avgas, of course