Is the stock market going to tank?

[Brock Landers]

GME at 0.5 PS going forward is approx 30. Add another 10 for e-commerce. Add another 10 for Cohen. I wouldn't have bought at 50 but below 15 was a no Brainer for me. Proven e-commerce plays are 1, 2 , 3x sales. Basically GME stock was a non expiring option to me with massive (30%+ CC monthly) returns even if it had a slow crawl up which i initially envisioned.

As for Bob or Brock's opinions, we can agree to disagree. That makes a market. Anything else I offer to counterpoint is repetition. Any of their counterpoint is also repetition

I have no opinion on GME, just wondering how it can get a footing in an area where gamers generally know exactly what they want and can get it in other larger platforms. Certain things are a bit more "amazon proof" in the e-commerce side (Ulta Beauty comes to mind) but if Gamestop is any different than a local record store or Blockbuster video, I'm not seeing it immediately. You go in, buy Xbox, leave? And this cant be done through amazon why? The digital platform thing I can totally see, but it wouldnt really be GME doing it right? Wouldnt it be the content/platform providers like Sony or MSFT?

Educate me, I haven't looked into it at all.

[JimmyCarter]

I have no opinion on GME, just wondering how it can get a footing in an area where gamers generally know exactly what they want and can get it in other larger platforms. Certain things are a bit more "amazon proof" in the e-commerce side (Ulta Beauty comes to mind) but if Gamestop is any different than a local record store or Blockbuster video, I'm not seeing it immediately. You go in, buy Xbox, leave? And this cant be done through amazon why? The digital platform thing I can totally see, but it wouldnt really be GME doing it right? Wouldnt it be the content/platform providers like Sony or MSFT?

Educate me, I haven't looked into it at all.

Arguments I've heard (haven't verified impact/magnitude myself):
1. extremely loyal customer base
2. used game marketplace is actually key and something they can probably find a way to make even better, tied into customer base and not something they're likely to lose to an amazon
3. venturing into the "BYO gaming PC" space

Check out a guy named "roaring kitty" on youtube. he posted his thesis in a video back in 2020 when GME was 4 bucks a share and has turned what I believe was a few hundred k into about $13 million as of yesterday's close.

edit to add video. roaring kitty =DEEPFUCKINGVALUE on WSB, the guy who started this whole thing

[MultiVerse]

Arguments I've heard (haven't verified impact/magnitude myself):
1. extremely loyal customer base
2. used game marketplace is actually key and something they can probably find a way to make even better, tied into customer base and not something they're likely to lose to an amazon
3. venturing into the "BYO gaming PC" space

4. Customers who prefer or can only pay with cash.

It might be hard for us dentists to believe but there's a big segment of gamers who don't have credit cards because they are kids or have poor credit. Plus service workers who are paid in cash, or tipped. There's a lot of overlap between cash only consumers and gamers. Gamestop often functions sort of like a bank where cash is exchanged for digital codes.

[CovertM]

Arguments I've heard (haven't verified impact/magnitude myself):
1. extremely loyal customer base
2. used game marketplace is actually key and something they can probably find a way to make even better, tied into customer base and not something they're likely to lose to an amazon
3. venturing into the "BYO gaming PC" space

Check out a guy named "roaring kitty" on youtube. he posted his thesis in a video back in 2020 when GME was 4 bucks a share and has turned what I believe was a few hundred k into about $13 million as of yesterday's close.

edit to add video. roaring kitty =DEEPFUCKINGVALUE on WSB, the guy who started this whole thing

Believe it was about $53k into $11mm+ at close on Friday. Still holding all shares (50k) and 1,000 contracts for $20ish call options with April expiry. $2mm sitting in cash after Jan calls got exercised.

Yes watch his videos, he and Dr. Michael Burry (The Big Short) were initial catalysts into the “movement”.

*this is all hearsay from WSB and has not been confirmed, except for u/deepfuckingvalue aka Roaring Kitty’s positions, he posts them publicly

[LeeLau]

I have no opinion on GME, just wondering how it can get a footing in an area where gamers generally know exactly what they want and can get it in other larger platforms. Certain things are a bit more "amazon proof" in the e-commerce side (Ulta Beauty comes to mind) but if Gamestop is any different than a local record store or Blockbuster video, I'm not seeing it immediately. You go in, buy Xbox, leave? And this cant be done through amazon why? The digital platform thing I can totally see, but it wouldnt really be GME doing it right? Wouldnt it be the content/platform providers like Sony or MSFT?

Educate me, I haven't looked into it at all.

Lots of gamers don't have access to high speed internet as yet. Lots also still want to own the media. Lots still trade games. The TAM for this segment is shrinking and will be probably dead after this console cycle but that doesn't translate into bk now.

My models don't assume GME had to dominate e-commerce or beat Steam or Amzn. All they had to do was show up and win some. That's why the short play on this, imo was borderline retarded. One shorts scams, or toxic debt ridden fleabags, or vapourous hype.

Any shortseller worth their skin knows that 70-75% of times stocks go up. In this past year 90% of stocks have gone up. You short sure things if you want to win. You don't short valuation + any remote chance of turnaround + cult unless you hate your money.

When I came across GME in Sept and started running the numbers I saw glints of value. This was after Burry bought and just after MSFT announced the partnership. If one saw bankruptcy then I would suggest ineptitude in reading FS. I also saw high IV, although not as high as now. I saw it as potential turnaround. I didn't know who DFV was but my numbers agreed with his theses even though I disagreed as to the likelihood of short squeeze. I underestimated the stupidity/stubbornness of the shorts or I would have committed more than Yolo money to this

[LeeLau]

Trimmed half my WKHS long and Oct 30C. Kept Oct 40C as yolo. Bought Nov puts. Now net short but still basically a strangle. I can't see the US government or the USPS being competent enough to meet some contract award deadline


Started GME high 11s. Sold calls against it. Premiums are so high the Oct 14C expiring in 4 days are returning 3%

This was original GME comment. Since then I 8x'ed my position via cash secured puts. I've now taken profits on 15% of that to recover my initial capital

[billyk]

I guess “short squeeze” is the new thing. More proof to me that I don’t understand this market at all. Sure seems like we’ve ventured deep into bubble territory, but obviously I don’t have a clue. Got everything in cash at the moment. Maybe that’s a mistake, and I’m missing out, but at least I haven’t lost it all (yet).

I have a feeling inflation and higher interest rates may be on the horizon with the new administration. How to invest with that in mind? First instinct is to buy some gold, but gold hasn’t really acted like much of a hedge lately. Seems like the price of gold tracks the stock market for some strange reason this year. Stocks fall, and gold falls right along with them.

Maybe real estate?

[rod9301]

I guess “short squeeze” is the new thing. More proof to me that I don’t understand this market at all. Sure seems like we’ve ventured deep into bubble territory, but obviously I don’t have a clue. Got everything in cash at the moment. Maybe that’s a mistake, and I’m missing out, but at least I haven’t lost it all (yet).

I have a feeling inflation and higher interest rates may be on the horizon with the new administration. How to invest with that in mind? First instinct is to buy some gold, but gold hasn’t really acted like much of a hedge lately. Seems like the price of gold tracks the stock market for some strange reason this year. Stocks fall, and gold falls right along with them.

Maybe real estate?

Everyone's goals are different, but for me


Oil firms that pay a good dividend, xom, total etc

Emerging markets, Brazil turkey Russia s korea Singapore a bit of china Malaysia.

No us stocks, except for oil.

All hedged with Russell 200 and spx

The idea is that i get dividends from oil and cap gains from emerging, which are very cheap, and short us market, which is very expensive.


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[mcsquared]

Funny story. My Mom (80yo) started investing with her SS checks. My parents are very comfortable and their SS checks are just icing but it is the first money that my Mom has received that is "hers".|

Anyway, she told me that some friend of a friend that she met at some activity, who works at some investment firm, gave her a hot stock tip and she is up "BIG".
Interested.. I asked her what the tip was.... The person told her to put all her money in VOO. Seriously. And my mom thinks she got some insider tip. Hat tip to the random investment friend.

[Brock Landers]

Funny story. My Mom (80yo) started investing with her SS checks. My parents are very comfortable and their SS checks are just icing but it is the first money that my Mom has received that is "hers".|

Anyway, she told me that some friend of a friend that she met at some activity, who works at some investment firm, gave her a hot stock tip and she is up "BIG".
Interested.. I asked her what the tip was.... The person told her to put all her money in VOO. Seriously. And my mom thinks she got some insider tip. Hat tip to the random investment friend.

Hah got a chuckle out of that. I mean...it has definitely worked out pretty well. Just keep it on the DL.

[BobMc]

Everyone's goals are different, but for me


Oil firms that pay a good dividend, xom, total etc

Emerging markets, Brazil turkey Russia s korea Singapore a bit of china Malaysia.

No us stocks, except for oil.

All hedged with Russell 200 and spx

The idea is that i get dividends from oil and cap gains from emerging, which are very cheap, and short us market, which is very expensive.


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If you’re putting money into energy looking for dividends I’d recommend looking at midstreams. Most of the midstreams are fee based and not as susceptible to the cyclical fluctuations of crude prices.

I’ve been buying EPD, DCP, and MMP. All of them yield above XOM (which I love and own a lot of), they also all easily cover the yield with fcf. XOM has had to take on debt and slash costs to sustain their dividend and it still remains tenuous. The midstreams are all still trading down from pre-pandemic prices and share price growth is still in play.

That said, I’ve also done very well in renewables. I bought XOM all summer and fall. I took notice back in October when Next Era Energy briefly overtook XOM in market cap. Since then I’ve picked up 50 shares of NEE and 100 of BEP. In the short time I’ve owned them I’m up 11.82% and 16.38% respectively. Neither of them pay a high yield but I believe eventually they will and growth in this administration seems highly likely.

[rod9301]

If you’re putting money into energy looking for dividends I’d recommend looking at midstreams. Most of the midstreams are fee based and not as susceptible to the cyclical fluctuations of crude prices.

I’ve been buying EPD, DCP, and MMP. All of them yield above XOM (which I love and own a lot of), they also all easily cover the yield with fcf. XOM has had to take on debt and slash costs to sustain their dividend and it still remains tenuous. The midstreams are all still trading down from pre-pandemic prices and share price growth is still in play.

That said, I’ve also done very well in renewables. I bought XOM all summer and fall. I took notice back in October when Next Era Energy briefly overtook XOM in market cap. Since then I’ve picked up 50 shares of NEE and 100 of BEP. In the short time I’ve owned them I’m up 11.82% and 16.38% respectively. Neither of them pay a high yield but I believe eventually they will and growth in this administration seems highly likely.

Yeah, got midstream too.

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[Stu Gotz]

Good lord. BlackBerry, of all companies, is now getting ramped up.

[CovertM]

Good lord. BlackBerry, of all companies, is now getting ramped up.

Where were you the last three weeks?


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[Cono Este]

They say a new top should be followed by a 15% gain, it feels like we could go higher.

But how that happens during Covid and a looming tax plan to stifle the economy I have no fucking idea.

Sitting on hands.


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[JimmyCarter]

GME over 100 premarket. B A N A N A S


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[sirbumpsalot]

Good lord. BlackBerry, of all companies, is now getting ramped up.

Read Reddit RH forum....I assumed thats where LeeLau was hanging out.

[dan_pdx]

I threw some play money into GME on Friday, up close to 100%. How long we gonna diamand hand this stuff?

Also, it seems like financial media is coalescing on presenting a market manipulation narrative for Wall Street Bets. MSN is saying things like "Starting off, WSB is a subreddit focused on boosting up shares of stocks before selling them off for profits" which feels like it gives those guys way more credit for organization than they deserve.

[JimmyCarter]

I threw some play money into GME on Friday, up close to 100%. How long we gonna diamand hand this stuff?

Also, it seems like financial media is coalescing on presenting a market manipulation narrative for Wall Street Bets. MSN is saying things like "Starting off, WSB is a subreddit focused on boosting up shares of stocks before selling them off for profits" which feels like it gives those guys way more credit for organization than they deserve.

Hold is based on planetary alignment apparently.

I keep looking for the "at the top" option when setting my limit but it doesn't seem to be available.

[dan_pdx]

Hold is based on planetary alignment apparently.

I keep looking for the "at the top" option when setting my limit but it doesn't seem to be available.

Ha! Yeah, pretty sure that option and the "federal guarantee against losses" option are only available for the Goldman Sachs of the world.

[Mazderati]

Is now a good time to jump into GME?

[gravitylover]

It's amazing how 5 or 6 paragraphs in a Seeking Alpha article can double or triple a stock right now. So many things I've come across recently feel like great pump and dumps if you get commission free trades and can just bounce in and out of things. GME and a few others are the same just on a grander scale.

[Benny Profane]

Some historical facts.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/202...-stock-market/

[JimmyCarter]

It's amazing how 5 or 6 paragraphs in a Seeking Alpha article can double or triple a stock right now. So many things I've come across recently feel like great pump and dumps if you get commission free trades and can just bounce in and out of things. GME and a few others are the same just on a grander scale.

When money is cheap, risk is meaningless so people pile into anything that has a growth story

[Toadman]

Is now a good time to jump into GME?

Yes, you will be kicking your self a month from now when it hits $1,000.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/game-...133819632.html