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  1. #14701
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    China seems to be in a secular shift away from unbridled capitalism. They made an example out of Jack Ma and several dozen other tech and education billionaires.

    They seem to be focused on turning to a more productive, less speculative economy rooted in Han Chinese culture and language. See: recent clamp down on gaming, splitting up Alibaba, shutting down tens of billions of dollars of English language schools, increase in nationalism, suppression of anything internal that isn't Han.

    I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't let the contagion spread across portions of their economy so they could kill of whatever Xi thinks is undesirable and buy up whatever the CCP wants at discounted prices.

    It certainly doesn't make sense for shitty, empty condos in second and third tier Chinese cities to be valued at the same price per square foot as Manhattan or London, but thats what things have gotten to in some cases.
    Last biz trip to Shanghai pre-COVID that was the consensus of our biz contacts. There was a lot of very conspicuous displays of wealth in that city. Was not a good image for the CCP to have party members and family flaunting it.

    So wouldn't be surprised to see Xi continue with that clamping down on the corruption and ostentatious displays of wealth. No doubt wealthy Chinese are trying to figure out how to get cash out of the country.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  2. #14702
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    China seems to be in a secular shift away from unbridled capitalism. They made an example out of Jack Ma and several dozen other tech and education billionaires.

    They seem to be focused on turning to a more productive, less speculative economy rooted in Han Chinese culture and language. See: recent clamp down on gaming, splitting up Alibaba, shutting down tens of billions of dollars of English language schools, increase in nationalism, suppression of anything internal that isn't Han.

    I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't let the contagion spread across portions of their economy so they could kill of whatever Xi thinks is undesirable and buy up whatever the CCP wants at discounted prices.

    It certainly doesn't make sense for shitty, empty condos in second and third tier Chinese cities to be valued at the same price per square foot as Manhattan or London, but thats what things have gotten to in some cases.
    My GF owns a condo outside Guangzhou. Itís really nice in a beautiful development. Sheís owned it for 15 years and would barely break even if she could sell it at all.

    I guess itís how you look at carpet bagging. Chrysler, GM, AIG for example. Allowing hedge funds and PE to buy 100ís of thousands of homes that affects affordability and supply. Allowing illegal businessís like Uber and Airbnb to thrive at the expense of legacy small business. Allowing tech to predate with addictive technology and privacy invasion.

  3. #14703
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    You guys think more dumping tomorrow? Maybe I will do a little buying but wait another day.
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  4. #14704
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    As long as thereís not large percentage declines in the high pe and meme stocks itís probably corrective. That said, a 10% decline is still a long way down and so is the 200 day ma.

  5. #14705
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    Last biz trip to Shanghai pre-COVID that was the consensus of our biz contacts. There was a lot of very conspicuous displays of wealth in that city. Was not a good image for the CCP to have party members and family flaunting it.

    So wouldn't be surprised to see Xi continue with that clamping down on the corruption and ostentatious displays of wealth. No doubt wealthy Chinese are trying to figure out how to get cash out of the country.
    It's crazy how quickly things have changed. I spent time in China in 2015 and 2016 while figuring out a joint venture. It was peak white monkey jobs and crazy displays of wealth and anything goes so long as money is made. The entire Chinese tech economy was in fake it till you make it, steal it if you can mode.

    Five years later and China seems to be on a very different path...

    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    My GF owns a condo outside Guangzhou. Itís really nice in a beautiful development. Sheís owned it for 15 years and would barely break even if she could sell it at all.

    I guess itís how you look at carpet bagging. Chrysler, GM, AIG for example. Allowing hedge funds and PE to buy 100ís of thousands of homes that affects affordability and supply. Allowing illegal businessís like Uber and Airbnb to thrive at the expense of legacy small business. Allowing tech to predate with addictive technology and privacy invasion.
    For sure.

    The US seems to be quite happy with our current trajectory that is pushing most people towards being mindless consumers who pay rent to a mega corp and live in a fucked up black mirror episode. Just keep cranking out the next controversy and give each side their respective talking points (gay rights, CRT, black lives matter, the debt ceiling, climate change, immigration, SOCIALISM) so that people focus their energy into circular conversations and don't see what's happening with PE and hedge funds and publicly traded companies buying up residential real estate and turning future generations into serfs.

    China is cracking down on the privatization of data and "mind numbing" activities. They certainly have a vision for what they want their society (and the world that their influence extends to) to be.

    The US has no vision and no political leadership.

  6. #14706
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    Well the US is more bottom up than top down. Or I like to think so anyway. For instance, the pediatrics association is recommending certain limits on screen time by age. My grandson is being raised according to those guidelines by the choice of his parents.

    You guys want central planning or what?
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  7. #14707
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    Quote Originally Posted by shera View Post
    Well the US is more bottom up than top down. Or I like to think so anyway. For instance, the pediatrics association is recommending certain limits on screen time by age. My grandson is being raised according to those guidelines by the choice of his parents.

    You guys want central planning or what?
    I think there's plenty of reasonable positions / policies between "the current economic / social system is bad for 95% of Americans" and "central planning for all!". Hard for bottom up change to take place when the conversation is dominated by whoever can throw the most money at it.

  8. #14708
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    Quote Originally Posted by shera View Post
    Well the US is more bottom up than top down. Or I like to think so anyway. For instance, the pediatrics association is recommending certain limits on screen time by age. My grandson is being raised according to those guidelines by the choice of his parents.

    You guys want central planning or what?
    Like warnings on cigarette packaging, age restriction, and advertising bans? Opiate guidelines? Some technology could certainly come with public health warnings but of courseÖfreedom!

  9. #14709
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    Quote Originally Posted by shera View Post
    Well the US is more bottom up than top down. Or I like to think so anyway. For instance, the pediatrics association is recommending certain limits on screen time by age. My grandson is being raised according to those guidelines by the choice of his parents.

    You guys want central planning or what?
    There's a pretty wide spectrum between regulatory capture and central planning. I'd say the US is currently somewhere around 75% of the way towards regulatory capture and China is somewhere around 65% of the way towards central planning.

    It would sure be nice (and a hell of a lot cheaper) if we had the leadership and political will to get out in front of problems before they become problems. Instead, we're cool with the corporations basically doing whatever they want. At worst, they get a slap on the wrist after the fact. Tech/finance/manufacturing/pharma/education/medicine. Is there a single industry in the US that isn't completely fucked up and who actually pays fines or gets reorged in proportion to the damage that they cause?

    Mix in the lack of industry regulation with the realities of our centrally planned monetary policy and IMHO you have a recipe for disaster. We play fast and loose with monetary policy and then allow people to utilize that policy to harm the average American before things can be fixed. I'm not an anti-fed conspiracy person, but we need the legislative branch of the government to protect against the moral hazards of whatever our current monetary policy is.

    It certainly seems like cheap debt is fueling massive, levered speculative bubbles in RE and equities and people in the in crowd are using federal reserve dollars to steal the American dream away from everyday normal people. Want to buy billions in RE? No prob! Just issue some bonds and have the federal reserve buy them. Or, go public and let the federal reserve backstop your shares and then take on levered debt from other entities who sold bonds to the federal reserve.

  10. #14710
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    US Companies do pay hefty fines but they are like parking tickets that donít go on their driving record so they never get their license suspended.

    News today

    Filing: Twitter reaches an agreement to pay $809.5M to resolve claims from 2016 that it provided misleading engagement information to investors
    Last edited by 4matic; 09-20-2021 at 01:41 PM.

  11. #14711
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    China is cracking down on the privatization of data and "mind numbing" activities. They certainly have a vision for what they want their society (and the world that their influence extends to) to be.
    Yeah, they want the old CPC back. Impossible to disentangle the current “crackdowns” on private industry sectors, from prior crackdowns on ethnic minorities (Tibet, Xinjiang), religion, human rights, etc. it’s all the same shitty, gray, commie beast devouring things. The trajectory changed back in 2009 with the response to the Xinjiang riots and its been rolling East.

    something like >1 million and a notional $200 billion in apartments were presold by evergrande and aren’t yet completed. That’s a bunch of pissed of people, who will get something, likely. The rest, who knows. I doubt this is Lehman because things aren’t as interlocked, and Zhongnonhai really wants to keep kicking their debt bubble can, because they don’t know how to deflate it without losing their heads.

  12. #14712
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    I'm really appreciating all your thoughtful responses.

    But nobody is telling me if I can expect more downside tomorrow. :P
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  13. #14713
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    Quote Originally Posted by shera View Post
    I'm really appreciating all your thoughtful responses.

    But nobody is telling me if I can expect more downside tomorrow. :P
    I was in the midst of transferring some cash into the market, but hadn't actually started yet, so my guess is we're safe. Once I move the cash into the market, hold on to your seats.

  14. #14714
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    Five years later and China seems to be on a very different path...


    Because, Trump. They gave up on western stability, and know either he can be re elected or somebody worse. They are long term thinkers, and, frankly, have some excellent ideas how to reign in monopolies, which we don't have the balls to even think about except for vague threats from the FTC until another fascist comes along.

    Problem with that property developer going under is that most Chinese have invested in RE like we and the western world have put our money into equities and bonds. Xi has some eggs to walk on.

    The world is perfect. Appreciate the details.

  15. #14715
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    Quote Originally Posted by shera View Post
    I'm really appreciating all your thoughtful responses.

    But nobody is telling me if I can expect more downside tomorrow. :P
    I'd expect downside for the next few months... but I'm no expert.

  16. #14716
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Because, Trump. They gave up on western stability, and know either he can be re elected or somebody worse. They are long term thinkers, and, frankly, have some excellent ideas how to reign in monopolies, which we don't have the balls to even think about except for vague threats from the FTC until another fascist comes along.

    Problem with that property developer going under is that most Chinese have invested in RE like we and the western world have put our money into equities and bonds. Xi has some eggs to walk on.
    90% of families in the country own their home, giving China one of the highest home ownership rates in the world. Whatís more significant is that 80% of these homes are owned outright, without mortgages or any other leans.

  17. #14717
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    90% of families in the country own their home, giving China one of the highest home ownership rates in the world. What’s more significant is that 80% of these homes are owned outright, without mortgages or any other leans.
    And what’s really significant is most of those homes aren’t worth shit, because rural China is poor.

  18. #14718
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    And whatís really significant is most of those homes arenít worth shit.
    And rents are nothing in most places. Like $200 a month for a decent apartment

  19. #14719
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    And rents are nothing in most places. Like $200 a month for a decent apartment
    rental yields in the major Chinese citys are some of the lowest in the world ​and getting cut further because people canít afford to rent.

  20. #14720
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    And whatís really significant is most of those homes arenít worth shit, because rural China is poor.
    Right. What a stupid thing to type. And there is no private ownership of land. So, really, some mud and straw shack on state owned property is somehow considered home ownership?

    Edit: Actually, there is no private ownership of anything. Re: Jack Ma. Talk to him.

    Anybody with money have been buying those empty apartments in empty cities, hoping for a bright future. Bubble finally popping.

    The world is perfect. Appreciate the details.

  21. #14721
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Because, Trump. They gave up on western stability, and know either he can be re elected or somebody worse. They are long term thinkers, and, frankly, have some excellent ideas how to reign in monopolies, which we don't have the balls to even think about except for vague threats from the FTC until another fascist comes along.

    Problem with that property developer going under is that most Chinese have invested in RE like we and the western world have put our money into equities and bonds. Xi has some eggs to walk on.
    I agree with the sentiment that the US isn't competitive in the long run unless we can break out of our current 4 year political cycle.

    RE: China- There are apparently photos floating around on WeChat of some Evergrande execs being held hostage by property investors who want their money bank- https://www.finews.asia/finance/3539...utives-hostage

    The people complaining about the loss of their property deposits should probably realize that they are the eggs...or they are the students in Tiananmen square and Xi is the Type 59 tank. It's perhaps OK to serve up some capitalist executives at Evergrande to be dethroned by the CCP, but you definitely don't cause too many waves in the pond or your liquified remains will be hosed into a storm drain.

  22. #14722
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    I agree with the sentiment that the US isn't competitive in the long run unless we can break out of our current 4 year political cycle.
    Hey, we're fine. We're still number one, and China, number two, will fade soon due to awful demographics and state control of the financial and other markets. Add in a long time locked down internet to western ideas and innovation, and they may be Detroit in thirty years. Nobody is rushing to open factories there, and the don't have shit for a self sustaining middle class. But watch out if they make a military.

    The world is perfect. Appreciate the details.

  23. #14723
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Right. What a stupid thing to type. And there is no private ownership of land. So, really, some mud and straw shack on state owned property is somehow considered home ownership?

    Edit: Actually, there is no private ownership of anything. Re: Jack Ma. Talk to him.

    Anybody with money have been buying those empty apartments in empty cities, hoping for a bright future. Bubble finally popping.
    Not a lot different than your condo Benny:

    When you buy a condo unit, you own the air space within the condo itself and an ďinterestĒ in the condominium association, a not-for-profit legal entity that is managed by the Home Owners Association. The land on which the building stands is owned by the association, not by the condo owners

  24. #14724
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    Palm to fucking forehead. Jezuz H.

    We are the fucking association.

    The world is perfect. Appreciate the details.

  25. #14725
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    Quote Originally Posted by shera View Post
    I'm really appreciating all your thoughtful responses.

    But nobody is telling me if I can expect more downside tomorrow. :P
    Yes, or No, Maybe...
    No one can tell you what's going to happen tomorrow. Could be a big Nothing Burger today, could be the start of a significant slide back, no one knows for sure
    Personally loaded up on 12/31 SPY and QQQ Calls today, $500 range and $400 range respectively. September slump continues and then we rocket ship into EOY IMO, NFA

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