Is the stock market going to tank?

[dschane]

And a timely article in support of that strategy:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/its-the...ws-11651849380

Can't get past the pay-wall or don't want to read it, here's the summary:

"Over the long run, the total return of bonds depends far more on their income than on changes in price. Since 1976, just over 90% of the average annual return of the U.S. bond market has come from interest and reinvesting it, according to Loomis, Sayles & Co., an investment manager in Boston."

[rod9301]

And a timely article in support of that strategy:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/its-the...ws-11651849380

Can't get past the pay-wall or don't want to read it, here's the summary:

"Over the long run, the total return of bonds depends far more on their income than on changes in price. Since 1976, just over 90% of the average annual return of the U.S. bond market has come from interest and reinvesting it, according to Loomis, Sayles & Co., an investment manager in Boston."

Yeah, but i wonder what the results would be in a period of riding interest rates


And over such a long period of time, of course it's the interest that matters.

Over shorter periods, the capital gain or loss matters a lot more.
Anyway, these guys don't want people to sell their holdings in the fund, so i wouldn't trust their propaganda.
Careful how you interpret this study.

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[dschane]

Careful how you interpret this study.

Yup, that's always true.

The bond market for 2022 has so far had one of its worst years ever. So, deploying cash that has been on the sidelines into BOND, which is chasing yields from a variety of bonds of different maturities, at a time that might be the bottom, or relatively close to it, is a good strategy, esp. when you consider alternative investment choices today and the outlook for equities over the next 2-5 years.

I personally haven't adopted that strategy but am certainly weighing it.

[4matic]

14 year high rate in the 5Y
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US5Y

[BobMc]

Set an order to buy CRLBF at $4.20 on Sunday night, figured the price was fitting. It came within .14 of filling. Reset it for $4.00 on a GTC order. Came within pennies all week while rising in the afternoons, today it finally filled at an opener of $3.92.

I figure weed stocks will languish until after the midterms at least, just waiting on that legislative banking bill. I could probably get it cheaper soon, but I’m hoping they buck the weed stock trend of low margins. They report May 18th, crossing fingers for a better margin outcome.

Ended up getting my $52 ($51.34) for the ET put, could’ve cashed out at $5 during the day. But, I want that $51, or the shares.

[Stu Gotz]

Buy IBonds and wait out the silliness. Yielding 9%+ with a $10,000 limit per account. Setting up the account is a PITA, but it’s worth it.

[4matic]

Buy IBonds and wait out the silliness. Yielding 9%+ with a $10,000 limit per account. Setting up the account is a PITA, but it’s worth it.

It’s like a teaser rate. If we go back to trend inflation and with the sell restrictions it doesn’t look so great.

“The Series I bonds currently being issued have a fixed interest rate of 0% and the overall rate is structured to compensate for the U.S. inflation rate.”

[summit]

I bonds only have to be held for a year. You can only put 10K in them per year max so it will not make or break your life investment strategy.

[4matic]

UBER says working for them is a privilege. AMZN over hired. More Tech layoffs are coming.

[summit]

I cashed out 20% premarket... I guess that was good... but not good enough. This feels like a long downward slide. Timing the market is a fucking dice throw.

Why are interest rates up but banks not paying anything for savings accounts? I'm earning 0.01% from USAA.

[RoooR]

I cashed out 20% premarket... I guess that was good... but not good enough. This feels like a long downward slide. Timing the market is a fucking dice throw.

Agree. Bear markets can have massive rallies. Before bottoming out in 2000 the NASDAQ rallied 30%+ multiple times.

[yeahman]

Why are interest rates up but banks not paying anything for savings accounts? I'm earning 0.01% from USAA.

Can't answer that, but about 6 months ago I moved most of my savings to a Lending Club high yield savings account. O.70% and member FDIC. Been happy so far, easy to get somebody on the phone etc. I can't see any risk with Lending Club's bank arm but if anybody knows something I don't I'd like to hear it.

[4matic]

Monday’s are tricky because the mutual fund orders from Friday get executed.

[XXX-er]

I cashed out 20% premarket... I guess that was good... but not good enough. This feels like a long downward slide. Timing the market is a fucking dice throw.

Why are interest rates up but banks not paying anything for savings accounts? I'm earning 0.01% from USAA.

my method was to sell the house at the peak & party like a rock star, forget/ leave the RE proceeds in cash & miss the stock market down turn, its that hit n miss IME

[406]

With oil/midstreams also down, my brokerage account is getting hammered. Only thing I own that is green for the day is GILD.

Based on my googling, in the late 70's to stop this level of inflation was a recession, so likely could have ~10% more drop?

[skaredshtles]

<snip>
Based on my googling, in the late 70's to stop this level of inflation was a recession, so likely could have ~10% more drop?

Sure. Maybe 20%. Maybe more.

[Cono Este]

The real question is how long does it stay down? It will find a bottom, there will be an over sold situation and it will rally, but how long for new highs?

Like I said a few pages back, if you are nearing retirement, or are not in it for 5-10 yrs, you will wish you had sold in that last rally.

4matic got it right for his age, now he waits for higher yields like retirees wished for when they were sold shitty stocks by no nothing advisors the last 5 yrs.

Going to be a lot whiners the next few yrs.


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[jackstraw]

Can't answer that, but about 6 months ago I moved most of my savings to a Lending Club high yield savings account. O.70% and member FDIC. Been happy so far, easy to get somebody on the phone etc. I can't see any risk with Lending Club's bank arm but if anybody knows something I don't I'd like to hear it.

I have a few savings accounts that I don't pay too much attention to, but looking now, it's .85, .60, and local bank .02. Tracking up slowly.

[4matic]

Thanks Cono. I know quite a few people that mistake return for yield. Treasury yields still look higher but I feel like the dollar and commodities are about done.

[Bunion 2020]

The real question is how long does it stay down? It will find a bottom, there will be an over sold situation and it will rally, but how long for new highs?

Like I said a few pages back, if you are nearing retirement, or are not in it for 5-10 yrs, you will wish you had sold in that last rally.

4matic got it right for his age, now he waits for higher yields like retirees wished for when they were sold shitty stocks by no nothing advisors the last 5 yrs.

Going to be a lot whiners the next few yrs.


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Quoted for posterity

[shera]

I am officially out of dry powder on the crypto exchange. Would like to sell some equities like ARKK, should I wait until tomorrow - looks like there could be a rebound?

[RoooR]

I wouldn't trust Crazy Cathy with a dime of my $. YMMV though.

[skaredshtles]

I am officially out of dry powder on the crypto exchange. Would like to sell some equities like ARKK, should I wait until tomorrow - looks like there could be a rebound?

Maybe. Or it'll keep dropping as people start to panic.

If we knew, we'd all be millionaires by now.

[4matic]

Problem for ARKK now is TSLA. It can still really get hit.

[Cono Este]

I am officially out of dry powder on the crypto exchange. Would like to sell some equities like ARKK, should I wait until tomorrow - looks like there could be a rebound?

Sell when you can, not when you have to.




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