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  1. #16726
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    MA
    Posts
    6,661
    Oh there will be some hedge funds blowing up for sure.

    But they don’t answer to the Feds/regulators/etc like a bank does, so they can do it. And when they go belly up everyone else moves on with their lives.
    Decisions Decisions

  2. #16727
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Mountains, Trees, and a Big Blue Lake
    Posts
    643
    https://bondvigilantes.com/blog/2022...and-have-nots/

    "pension funds are/have been servicing ever increasing margin calls driven by the extreme moves in real and nominal rates. They are on a hunt for liquidity (cash) to service these calls at the same time the liquidity (bid offer spread) of asset markets is extremely fragile. A sub layer to this dynamic is that pension funds are also a significant provider of gilts to the repo market (which they repo out to fund levered investments) and where we are now seeing some strain as these gilts are either withdrawn from repo programmes (to sell, as of yesterday to the BOE) or repo’d out to raise cash to fund said margin calls..."

  3. #16728
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,212
    Quote Originally Posted by NakedShorts View Post
    https://bondvigilantes.com/blog/2022...and-have-nots/

    "pension funds are/have been servicing ever increasing margin calls driven by the extreme moves in real and nominal rates. They are on a hunt for liquidity (cash) to service these calls at the same time the liquidity (bid offer spread) of asset markets is extremely fragile. A sub layer to this dynamic is that pension funds are also a significant provider of gilts to the repo market (which they repo out to fund levered investments) and where we are now seeing some strain as these gilts are either withdrawn from repo programmes (to sell, as of yesterday to the BOE) or repo’d out to raise cash to fund said margin calls..."
    January 2022 from that same blog:

    Conclusion Overall we are less worried about EM inflation in 2022, and selectively bullish on EM currencies with strong external accounts or where inflation may soon be peaking.

  4. #16729
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Mountains, Trees, and a Big Blue Lake
    Posts
    643
    4matic that January piece is a bit more opinion than the one I posted... Again just some tidbits being dropped from the outliers...Not the CNBS types.

  5. #16730
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,212

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    I’ve seen dysfunctional liquidity in bonds and mentioned it here a few times so not disagreeing. It can work the other way too with drop of a hat. 10y went from 3.50>2.50 just last month. Like the 80’s elevated bond and currency vol will probably last a while.

    I still think rates will be lower 5 years from now.
    Last edited by 4matic; 09-30-2022 at 01:53 PM.

  6. #16731
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    11,835
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    I’ve seen dysfunctional liquidity in bonds and mentioned it here a few times so not disagreeing. It can work the other way too with drop off a hat. 10y went from 3.50>2.50 just last month. Like the 80’s elevated bond and currency vol will probably last a while.

    I still think rates will be lower 5 years from now.
    That’s what the mkt is saying with the inverted yield.

    I still think there could be force liquidation type margin call give them the hook type event that is worth banking on.

    Difference between a double and a HR. And the HR’s don’t come around often.

  7. #16732
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    MA
    Posts
    6,661
    I think they’ll be lower 1 year and 5 years from now
    Decisions Decisions

  8. #16733
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,212
    Lower rates years ahead, if true, are good opportunity for managed bond funds because they typically lag.

  9. #16734
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Mountains, Trees, and a Big Blue Lake
    Posts
    643
    More Spending
    +
    Higher Debts
    +
    Lower Confidence
    =
    Lower Rates

    I need some of whatever you are smoking. It must be good shit!

  10. #16735
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,212
    Quote Originally Posted by NakedShorts View Post
    More Spending
    +
    Higher Debts
    +
    Lower Confidence
    =
    Lower Rates

    I need some of whatever you are smoking. It must be good shit!
    None of those affected long term trajectory of rates the past 40 years.

  11. #16736
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Mountains, Trees, and a Big Blue Lake
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    Name:  20220930_140403.jpg
Views: 384
Size:  82.0 KB

  12. #16737
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    6,902
    You will never get the truth out of a Fed chair. I mean, if they tell us the truth the market would have imploded and we would all be living on white bread and polluted water living in a cardboard box, down by the river. Still, we might get there. So, don't give up hope of having a one cardboard box shelter with river views.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  13. #16738
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    Mar 2006
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    19,212
    Powell, The Self declared Cato institute Libertarian, said as much.

  14. #16739
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,212
    Maybe it’s Credit Suisse that gets it started:

    Citing people familiar with the situation, Reuters reported last week that Credit Suisse was sounding out investors for fresh cash as it attempts a radical overhaul of its investment bank.

  15. #16740
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,212
    This is the first time stocks and bonds have fallen in tandem for three consecutive quarters since 1976, according to Strategas Research.

  16. #16741
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,212
    Spiraling losses on Wall Street are now snowballing into forced asset liquidation, according to Bank of America strategists. The NYSE Composite Index, which includes US stocks, depositary receipts and real estate investment trusts, has broken multiple technical support levels including its 200-week moving average, the 14,000 mark. Now, accumulated losses could force funds to sell more assets to raise cash, accelerating the selloff. Similarly grim milestones keep piling up for Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong. As September draws to an end, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has lost 14% to rank as the worst performer among major equity benchmarks globally in September. Hovering around the lowest since the global financial crisis, it is now trading at 0.6 times book value—the cheapest ever.

  17. #16742
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    8,237
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Image1664582567.282328.jpg 
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Size:	339.0 KB 
ID:	428173

  18. #16743
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Posts
    3,254
    Wow, CCL down 23% today.

  19. #16744
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Behind the Zion Curtain
    Posts
    4,519
    They missed on earnings, revenue, and reported diminishing reservations. I made good money selling calls last year on it, I got out of my 100 shares at $22.38 last year. They took on a shit ton of debt during the pandemic, I could see bankruptcy at some point.

  20. #16745
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Mountains, Trees, and a Big Blue Lake
    Posts
    643
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Screenshot_20221001-080950.png 
Views:	71 
Size:	484.2 KB 
ID:	428262

  21. #16746
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    Apr 2006
    Posts
    4,083
    By 2037-47servicing the interest on the debt eats up all descretionary spending, health care and social security.

    Huh.


  22. #16747
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Last Best City in the Last Best Place
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    I predict a lot of people who retired during the pandemic on their fat portfolios will be re-entering the job market. Could help ease labor shortages.

  23. #16748
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hood River
    Posts
    585
    Quote Originally Posted by byates1 View Post
    By 2037-47servicing the interest on the debt eats up all descretionary spending, health care and social security.

    Huh.

    Similar stories get recycled again and again and again... meh.

  24. #16749
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    6,902
    Quote Originally Posted by yeahman View Post
    I predict a lot of people who retired during the pandemic on their fat portfolios will be re-entering the job market. Could help ease labor shortages.
    Starting to see some older folks working in the service industries. I doubt these folks had fat portfolios though.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  25. #16750
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    11,835
    When you retire, The sequence of returns in you portfolio is the difference between hero and zero.

    I’d wager way too many were over invested in equities, and considering bonds and gold have been hammered, it’s a going to be life wrecking for many who followed the traditional advice of their whore advisors.

    I

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