Is the stock market going to tank?

[4matic]

No bid for rates tonight. Getting ugly

[Brock Landers]

No bid for rates tonight. Getting ugly

All that matters is key rate. Front end is a mess, but 10 and out is stable if not up 20s and 30s

Dollar way up. Makes sense.

My thoughts? Fed is going to push against inflation even if it starts hitting jobs numbers (which it hasn’t shown yet). They have communicated this pretty clearly since august cpi. Late this year into next year base values are going to kick inflation lower anyway. So the ineffective rate hikes won’t do anything anyway. But the slowdown in growth will spread (home builders rolled over months ago) and the cost of mtg or rents will hit consumers. Which may hit other businesses.

Id look for another 15% melt down in broad equity mkt over the next year. Energy will continue to do fine. Growth- especially high valuation growth will get whacked.

4% 2 year note? Jesus. High yield approaching 10% without an expectation for defaults (maturity wall doesn’t really hit until 2025). Yes please.

I’m long energy stocks (eog Dvn OXY) indexed high yield and short term high yield, and 20+ year us govt bonds. A couple healthcare names sprinkled (abbv, isrg). And pltr. Going down w that ship.

Fed solves inflation: long end comes down. Fed pushes us into recession: long end comes down. Russia keeps escalating: long end comes down. Probably.

[jackstraw]

Need to define what you mean by a passive investor. Going to cash is an active move.

Umm, how about a moronic investor that doesn't really know what the f he's doing, but generally speaking, does a "set it and forget it" until some reason like the yield curve going inverted and says to himself, maybe I should change something? I've been Robo guy for years and just set a risk tolerance number and let it go. I'm am low risk at the moment, but it's all dropping like a rock. Cash is a 2% return and probably rising? Granted, I'd get a tax hit selling off, but I'm ok with that...I think.

[JimmyCarter]

Umm, how about a moronic investor that doesn't really know what the f he's doing, but generally speaking, does a "set it and forget it" until some reason like the yield curve going inverted and says to himself, maybe I should change something? I've been Robo guy for years and just set a risk tolerance number and let it go. I'm am low risk at the moment, but it's all dropping like a rock. Cash is a 2% return and probably rising? Granted, I'd get a tax hit selling off, but I'm ok with that...I think.

Market timing is kinda like card counting. If you can’t do it perfectly, you’re doing yourself a disservice.

[rod9301]

But it makes sense to have less exposure when the market is expensive, like now, and more when it's cheap, like dox 3000

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[Mazderati]

[SumJongGuy]

I remember being in a graduate level corporate finance class in 1996 and the professor was totally dumbfounded at how much more global demand, thanks to 24/7 internet transaction access instead of just phones, was driving the markets up and up and up... He said up until then what mattered most was assets and income/revenue streams. Market values to asset values was way more similar back then. Now asset value is pretty worthless in determining market capitalization values..

[JimmyCarter]

But it makes sense to have less exposure when the market is expensive, like now, and more when it's cheap, like dox 3000

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A lot of the biggest gain days happen during bear markets/downward trends

[JimmyCarter]

I remember being in a graduate level corporate finance class in 1996 and the professor was totally dumbfounded at how much more global demand, thanks to 24/7 internet transaction access instead of just phones, was driving the markets up and up and up... He said up until then what mattered most was assets and income/revenue streams. Market values to asset values was way more similar back then. Now asset value is pretty worthless in determining market capitalization values..

Income streams still matter. Asset value to market value doesn’t make sense in a whole lot of industries because the assets that are generating the value (eg people/brands) aren’t on the balance sheet.

[byates1]

Listening to Powell briefly the other day it was interesting to hear him say " we can't let people become adjusted to this inflation in their thoughts and behaviors.

[rod9301]

A lot of the biggest gain days happen during bear markets/downward trends

Sure, but if the trend is down, it doesn't matter

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[BobMc]

I cashed out all my positions and split them amongst APE, AMC, and APRN…

J/K

I wish my timing was better and I had more cash, but, I’m throwing what I have at depressed equities I primarily already own. Picked up 10 shares of F, and then 10 shares of ARCC, both were bolstering my already owned shares to the downside.

I like F to kick the shit out of the EV market, I’ve been torn on which legacy manufacturer to invest. I can’t do TSLA, I think the CEO is too toxic to further the company. Ford seems to be wholeheartedly into this sector and is out ahead of everyone with the F-150.

ARCC pays a strong dividend, and I think they keep that up via leveraging interest rates in a possible increasing environment.

I’m down about 7k the last couple days, holding steady and buying more, just wishing I had more money.

[Cono Este]

The deals will only get better Bobmc.

I’d still say buying here is a coin toss wether you’re happy in the near term.

SP 2800 is where the winners show themselves.

Going to be locking in some nice div yields for Xmas.

[Kevo]

June lows are being tested. Shitty IPOs are getting slaughtered.

Good to see things coming back to reality. I'll be aggressively increasing my automated DCA if VTI breaks under $180.

[Mazderati]

[liv2ski]

June lows are being tested. Shitty IPOs are getting slaughtered.

Good to see things coming back to reality. I'll be aggressively increasing my automated DCA if VTI breaks under $180.

I am holding out for $160. Just hoping the next 10 years isn't a repeat of the 70's.

[up an down]

I am holding out for $160. Just hoping the next 10 years isn't a repeat of the 70's.

A repeat is certainly a possibility.. I started reading a new economics history book.. The authors contention is that the period from 1870 to 2010 was reality changing .. For good and for bad... Slouching towards utopia... is the title.. The author also has a good substack... Not stock or bond market specific.. But quite good and very readable!

[4matic]

I don’t always agree with Jeremy Siegel but when I do….

They know Nothing 2.0

Calling it poor monetary policy is an understatement, Says Prof. Jeremy Siegel on Fed hikes

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/09/2...pyToPasteboard


Part 2

https://twitter.com/CNBCOvertime/sta...E17Y9jiMOoFeTg

[Cono Este]

Amazing day for treasuries. 2 yr 4 .2%

Complete collapse in just a few months.

Amazing to watch.

[Toadman]

All I know is that the ocean shipping industry went from container freight rates of $3k per 40' cntr precovid to $20k in peak COVID back down to about $4k this month. No one is shipping anything. Ships are being pulled out of service. Last time I saw this occurrence was in October of 2007....

[jackstraw]

All I know is that the ocean shipping industry went from container freight rates of $3k per 40' cntr precovid to $20k in peak COVID back down to about $4k this month. No one is shipping anything. Ships are being pulled out of service. Last time I saw this occurrence was in October of 2007....

That's interesting.

[NakedShorts]

Some of you will be paying for your learningz....

You also have to remember the time "lost" recovering from these market moves. If you get out at the top and in at the bottom you make more money than the schmuck that was stuck in HODL. Not saying you need to time the market but you should absolutely pay attention to the sectors and their relative performance.

Oh and we are at those crucial levels that when lost will mean much more pain ahead. Like 30%+ in the QQQ's.

Still calling for a low in 1st half 2023! Fingers crossed for an election season Santa Clause rally but it will have no legs beyond AllHallowseve.

Stay away from Bonds even if they bounce here.

Oh and the world still does not think WW3 is on the table and supply chains will be just roses. Wake Up! These forecasts are garbage. Rates will be higher next October and so will inflation, food scarcity will continue to be an issue for the less fortunate, and we have no energy solutions beyond fossil fuels and glowing shit.

[Cono Este]

All I know is that the ocean shipping industry went from container freight rates of $3k per 40' cntr precovid to $20k in peak COVID back down to about $4k this month. No one is shipping anything. Ships are being pulled out of service. Last time I saw this occurrence was in October of 2007....

Baltic index is pretty crazy.

We fucked ourselves. That’s all I can say about the forthcoming economic collapse and depression. 20 yrs of terrible monetary policy.

I have to imagine the bottom in treasuries has to really be something on a scale I’ve never seen in my adult life.

[Cono Este]

I was holding out to buy BOND @ 90, now I think it may see 85.

[liv2ski]

Cono, so what do you think? The 10 year close to 5% once the FED is done?