Is the stock market going to tank?

[liv2ski]

I don't want things to go back to the way they were.

I would like to see single payer health care.
I would like to see minimum 2 weeks paid vacation for hourly workers.
I would like to see the avg. PTO go to 4 weeks in America. Europe gets it. Six weeks would be nice.
I would like to see Republican and Democratic congress people working together for the common good. (LOL, one can dream...)
I would like to see our homeless and vets taken care of.
I would like to see justice for all.
I would like to see a world where teachers and doctors make more money than pro athletes.
Lastly, I would like to see numerous uncrowded powder days on the slopes.

Never will happen with Bidet and Dumps as the 2 candidates. You will take the shitty guberment they give you and be thankful for it.

[Toadman]

Never will happen with Bidet and Dumps as the 2 candidates. You will take the shitty guberment they give you and be thankful for it.

Well, duh! It's all puppy dogs and unicorns until reality smacks you in the face with a genetically modified fish.

[Danno]

You've somehow stumbled upon the ethos of why I started the Branch Covidians. If you would like to join a like minded group of individuals in southern VT, pm me.

who do you think you are, AlpineZone?

[4matic]

Stocks and bonds got a bump after the close. Release the hounds!:

The Federal Reserve, seeking to improve the functioning of a critical market for Treasury securities, announced Wednesday it was relaxing a rule that will free up capital for the biggest banks to lend. The rule change gives banks an incentive to hold Treasurys.

The Fed announced it was relaxing the rule that required banks to set aside cash when it holds Treasury securities. The Fed staff estimated relaxing the rule should free up $76 billion in capital

The rule is aimed at the biggest banks with over $250 billion in assets. This covers 15 banks, which control $15 trillion in assets, said Mark T. Williams, a former Fed staffer and now a lecturer at Boston University’s Questrom School of Business.

The Fed said the temporary exclusion will allow them to expand their balance sheet as appropriate to serve as financial intermediaries. The banks are not allowed to use the new capital to increase capital distributions, the statement said.

[4matic]

Saudi Aramco barely below its IPO price:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/2222.SR/

[rideit]

Ya, it's got roots in philosophy and whatnot. Goes like this:

hoomans are contrast monkeys (see this thread https://twitter.com/george__mack/sta...53437831139328)
rather than obsessing over possessions & targets, focus on eliminating emotional attachment to materialist success
as you progress, focus shifts towards more meaningful/rewarding pursuits rather than pecuniary emulation
in good time, expectations are more in line with reality, happiness is up & anxiety is down

namaste

However, those are most widely adapted by the very rich and the very poor.

[Ted Striker]

Well, duh! It's all puppy dogs and unicorns until reality smacks you in the face with a genetically modified fish.

Reality hits you hard, bro.

[neufox47]

So all the landlord sell their rental properties and then what d****** where are all the tenants going to live are they suddenly going to be able to buy with their f*****-up credit?

They sell them to someone else who runs them as rental units... who else are the landlords or banks going to sell them to? Tenants still need to tenant. Might just be at reduced rates.

[TBS]

All of these “in two months” arguments are assuming the virus doesn’t mutate, which it already has. The CDC (and associated bio-medical companies) have found two strains and are concerned there will be more. COVID-19 is mutating faster then any known virus.

We may be fine and have a vaccine for the original two strains, but what about future strains? That’s the question, that’s what thr worry is about.

At this point eight strains of the virus have been identified. Of the 30k pairs of chromosomes in that genome, 11 pairs differ across the eight strains. E.G. not very fucking much variety, which will make it easier to vaccinate.

There’s an article posted somewhere in Padded Room that explains the mutations over time and where the variants popped up.

[dunfree]

They sell them to someone else who runs them as rental units... who else are the landlords or banks going to sell them to? Tenants still need to tenant. Might just be at reduced rates.

tenants don’t “need” to tenant if they don’t have jobs.

[liv2ski]

They sell them to someone else who runs them as rental units... who else are the landlords or banks going to sell them to? Tenants still need to tenant. Might just be at reduced rates.

Your the dope that said it is cool for tenants not to pay their rent and fuck the landlords, they can sell if in a pinch. Seem hypocritical to say the least and a lot about you thinking that is a fair outcome.

[iceman]

Comes down to a choice between food and rent I know where I'd spend my money is all I can say about that. Possible eviction in 3 months or dinner tonight? Hm.

[dunfree]

Comes down to a choice between food and rent I know where I'd spend my money is all I can say about that. Possible eviction in 3 months or dinner tonight? Hm.

comes back to people not getting how fast shit has changed. 10% UE? That’s in the bag.

[neufox47]

Your the dope that said it is cool for tenants not to pay their rent and fuck the landlords, they can sell if in a pinch. Seem hypocritical to say the least and a lot about you thinking that is a fair outcome.

I didn’t say that. I said that landlords are the last people who should get bailed out. But you are correct that I don’t want US taxpayers bailing out Simon Properties or BlackStone because the CheeseCake Factory stopped paying rent. Nor do I want the guy who was worth $5M net but held less than $100k cash bailed out because his 10 tenants stopped paying rent and his LLC’s can’t make their mortgage payments. I also didn’t say it was cool for people to not pay their rent, certainly if they can they should. But I have a lot more sympathy for the tenant renting living space than anyone else in that equation. If tenants decide to have a rent strike in the face of this and maybe renegotiate rents (which have mostly just went up and far faster than inflation), I’m not shedding a tear for the landlords. That’s capitalism. My main point was there’s an argument for keeping businesses that make something afloat, it’s not so easy to buy a defunct factory and restart or repurpose it. But an apartment building? That thing mostly just sits there.

Signed, a one time and likely future landlord.

[LeeLau]

After reading CCL's plan & prospectus to raise $ via bond, convertible and common stock offering I went short.

TLDR notes

4bn in bonds pay 12% and are first security collateralized by boats

Converts are approx 800m. Common offering is 1.2Bn. At $ 8/ share (my guess since it has to be priced below market) that's 375m share. Very dilutive to CCL's current 550m?? O/S.

CCL current burn rate is $ 1bn/ month. That's interest, capex, ship parking, wages, etc. After they drew down 3Bn credit line they have approx 9bm

CCL violates debt/ebit covenants by 3Q 2020.

CCL convert holders can short the stock to lock in their 12% ie short against the box.

More notes -

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...7344d424b5.htm

1.25b common stock

stock was 14.41 at the time

We estimate our liquidity requirements, which include our ongoing ship and administrative operating costs, cash refunds of customer deposits, debt maturities and interest, expected capital improvements, and new ship growth capital not addressed by committed export credit facilities, to be approximately on average, $1.0 billion per month.

Ship capex on 16 ships - During the pause in our global fleet cruise operations, certain of our ships will be in warm ship layup where the ship will be manned by a full crew and certain of our ships will be in a prolonged ship layup where the ship will be manned by a limited crew. We estimate the cost per warm ship layup is approximately $2-3 million per month and the cost per prolonged ship layup is approximately $1 million per month.


Interest expense As of February 29, 2020, the current portion of our long-term debt was $2.2 billion. The current portion of our long-term debt as of February 29, 2020 that was maturing on or prior to November 30, 2020 was $1.5 billion. In addition, on March 13, 2020 we fully drew down our $3.0 billion Existing Multicurrency Facility, which amounts are currently due in September 2020 and which we currently expect to repay and redraw, in whole or in part. Our approximately $200 million per year interest expense for the year ended November 30, 2019 will be increased by the additional interest accrued under the $3.0 billion of Senior Secured Notes and $1.75 billion of Convertible Notes.


3bn of liquidity ie 3 months - As of February 29, 2020, we had $3.0 billion of immediate liquidity, which consisted of available cash and cash equivalents and available borrowings under our Existing Multicurrency Facility. In addition, we had $2.8 billion from four committed export credit facilities that are available to fund the originally planned ship deliveries for the remainder of this year and $5.9 billion from committed export credit facilities that are available to fund ship deliveries originally planned in 2021 and beyond.

So the common stock raise + bond issue gives them another - 6 months (2bn common + unsecured convert; 4 bn first priority secured notes 12%)

No hedging restrictions on convert notes so the convert noteholders can short the stock to hedge themselves. They'll short the stock any time it's higher than the convert price to lock in a profit then convert to get shares to cover their short. Or they can just collect 12%

Debt/editda ratio would be violated by Q3 2020 - Under the terms of certain of our debt facilities with an aggregate outstanding principal amount of $8.4 billion of indebtedness as of February 29, 2020, the Company is required to maintain an interest coverage ratio (EBITDA to consolidated net interest charges for the most recently ended four fiscal quarters) of not less than 3.0 to 1.0 at the end of each fiscal quarter. As a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, the Company has paused its global fleet cruise operations and if it is unable to re-commence normal operations in the near-term, it may be out of compliance with its interest coverage ratio covenant as of the end of its third fiscal quarter, which ends August 31, 2020. If the Company were expecting to be out of compliance, the Company expects to seek waivers from the lenders under these numerous facilities prior to any covenant violation.

Offering recognizes underwriters and others may short - In connection with this offering, the underwriters may engage in stabilizing transactions, which involves making bids for, purchasing and selling shares of common stock in the open market for the purpose of preventing or retarding a decline in the market price of the common stock while this offering is in progress. These stabilizing transactions may include making short sales of common stock, which involves the sale by the underwriters of a greater number of shares of common stock than they are required to purchase in this offering, and purchasing shares of common stock on the open market to cover positions created by short sales. Short sales may be “covered” shorts, which are short positions in an amount not greater than the underwriters’ option to purchase additional shares referred to above, or may be “naked” shorts, which are short positions in excess of that amount. The underwriters may close out any covered short position either by exercising their option to purchase additional shares, in whole or in part, or by purchasing shares in the open market. In making this determination, the underwriters will consider, among other things, the price of shares available for purchase in the open market compared to the price at which the underwriters may purchase shares through the option to purchase additional shares. A naked short position is more likely to be created if the underwriters are concerned that there may be downward pressure on the price of the common stock in the open market that could adversely affect investors who purchase in this offering. To the extent that the underwriters create a naked short position, they will purchase shares in the open market to cover the position.

[4matic]

Nice trade setup.

[MegaStoke]

COVID-19 is mutating faster then any known virus.

You sir, are full of shit

[Deebased]

I didn’t say that. I said that landlords are the last people who should get bailed out. But you are correct that I don’t want US taxpayers bailing out Simon Properties or BlackStone because the CheeseCake Factory stopped paying rent. Nor do I want the guy who was worth $5M net but held less than $100k cash bailed out because his 10 tenants stopped paying rent and his LLC’s can’t make their mortgage payments. I also didn’t say it was cool for people to not pay their rent, certainly if they can they should. But I have a lot more sympathy for the tenant renting living space than anyone else in that equation. If tenants decide to have a rent strike in the face of this and maybe renegotiate rents (which have mostly just went up and far faster than inflation), I’m not shedding a tear for the landlords. That’s capitalism. My main point was there’s an argument for keeping businesses that make something afloat, it’s not so easy to buy a defunct factory and restart or repurpose it. But an apartment building? That thing mostly just sits there.

Signed, a one time and likely future landlord.

Absolutely and they should dramatically reduce eviction timelines to like a week.

Not paying rent is the equivalent of stealing a meal. Give the landlord the ability to self-correct as its their asset.

[4matic]

Shocking:

Luckin Coffee (LK), the multi-billion dollar Chinese coffee start-up admits to fraud (down >70%)

[Mazderati]

[Benny Profane]

A new record!

[Lone Star]

only 6 million? market going up!

[mcsquared]

So does that mean 10m in the past two weeks or is the 3.3 included in the 6.6?

[SKIP IN7RO]

10m in past two

[Benny Profane]

Excellent time to ramp up the war on drugs.