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  1. #14076
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    Nov 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by californiagrown View Post
    What are the collectives thoughts on BABA? Its basically China's amazon- the business model and their diversification into AI, web services, etc seems to follow very closely. Are investors scared that they will get kicked off the NYSE? I thought that had been put to bed? The price seems really low right now for what the company is and where it looks to be headed....
    The big concern with BABA and other tech stocks in China is Chinese regulators. The stocks look cheap especially compared to American tech but when management says something that irks the CCP regulators clamp down. That's been happening a lot lately.

    Last year regulators shut down the Ant Group IPO after Jack Ma criticized the government. I own BABA and PDD and the steady stream of bad news means it might be a while before the 'buying opportunity' pans out. There's also geopolitical risk. China has been saber-rattling against Taiwan so sanctions and/or delisting are a possibility.

  2. #14077
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
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    2,979
    Quote Originally Posted by californiagrown View Post
    What are the collectives thoughts on BABA? Its basically China's amazon- the business model and their diversification into AI, web services, etc seems to follow very closely. Are investors scared that they will get kicked off the NYSE? I thought that had been put to bed? The price seems really low right now for what the company is and where it looks to be headed....
    It’s not quite Amazon, but it’s a company with a real and useful service. Want some skis? https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/TALOS-downhill-ski-custom-freeride-ski_60724301445.html


    afaik BABA is still an ADR for a Cayman Islands company contracted to get the profit from some Chinese entity, with all the cultural and legal risk that entails. And with any company these days, but especially Chinese ones, there’s the question if you believe the numbers.
    Last edited by dunfree ; 05-14-2021 at 10:50 AM.

  3. #14078
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
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    North Vancouver/Whistler
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    12,703
    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    Daniel Kahneman, mentioned in the article above, has a new book coming out with research that shows everyone even within a firm pursuing the same strategy is playing their own game:

    "Öwe presented our findings to the senior managers of an asset management firm, prompting them to run their own exploratory noise audit. they asked forty-two experienced investors in the firm to estimate the fair value of a stock (the price at which investors would be indifferent to buying or selling). The investors based their analysis on a one-page description of the business; the data included ismplified profits and loss, balance sheet, and cash flow statements for the past three years and projections for the next two. median noise, measured in the same way as in the insurance company, was 41%. Such large differences among investors in the same firm, using the same valuation methods, cannot be good news."
    Do enjoy behavioural economics in real life. Thanks for that.

    Re BABA - what others have said re regulatory risk due to exceptional CCP regulatory capriciousness. There's other Chinese tech companies that have also been similarly discounted for that reason - eg Shanghai listed parent of TikTok, of WeChat, of Xiaomi

  4. #14079
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Behind the Zion Curtain
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    3,985
    That Luckin coffee thing didn’t work out so well, after watching that I decided no Chinese stonks. Although, I did recently buy a Taiwanese company’s stock.

    Nice to have a decent day today after getting shellacked all week, my account was up 3.8%. I love midstream distributions week, picked up 2.87 shares of EPD, 1.52 shares of DCP, and 3.09 shares of MMP all from distribution reinvestment this week. That pushed me to now over $200/month in dividends/distributions. My goal is to have that at $2000/month within 10 years. Shit starts compounding faster as those numbers grow.
    Last edited by BobMc; 05-14-2021 at 08:37 PM.

  5. #14080
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
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    STL
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    10,206
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Why does COIN have any advantage over other banks as a custodial if digital currency is legit? I can see them being the premier broker but their valuation indicates so much more. Global regulation will also put brakes on their growth.
    I have a coin acct. blows my mind there is no bid or offer. Jesus! If I could have done the same back in the day.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  6. #14081
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    Mar 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    I have a coin acct. blows my mind there is no bid or offer. Jesus! If I could have done the same back in the day.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Built in midpoint?

  7. #14082
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    Feb 2005
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    North Vancouver/Whistler
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    Quote Originally Posted by BobMc View Post
    That Luckin coffee thing didnít work out so well, after watching that I decided no Chinese stonks. Although, I did recently buy a Taiwanese companyís stock.

    Nice to have a decent day today after getting shellacked all week, my account was up 3.8%. I love midstream distributions week, picked up 2.87 shares of EDP, 1.52 shares of DCP, and 3.09 shares of MMP all from distribution reinvestment this week. That pushed me to now over $200/month in dividends/distributions. My goal is to have that at $2000/month within 10 years. Shit starts compounding faster as those numbers grow.
    I love my dividends. Addictive isn't it? Canucks can get 70k pa dividends tax free! When I heard about that little gift it became my goal to set that up myself and my wife.

    And you're totally correct about the power of compounding. 8% per year doubles every 10 years. 14.5% per year doubles every 5.
    Last edited by LeeLau; 05-14-2021 at 09:10 PM.

  8. #14083
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    Mar 2006
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    17,441
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    I have a coin acct. blows my mind there is no bid or offer. Jesus! If I could have done the same back in the day.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Was reading Peter Brandt feed and heís ripping Coinbase for not having a two sided market and taking the other side of stop orders at below the low of the day prices.

  9. #14084
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    Mar 2006
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    COIN raising more money is because none of the share sales went to fund the company. The direct listing was just a way for insiders to liquidate personal stakes.

  10. #14085
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    1,589
    Quote Originally Posted by BobMc View Post
    That Luckin coffee thing didn’t work out so well, after watching that I decided no Chinese stonks. Although, I did recently buy a Taiwanese company’s stock.

    Nice to have a decent day today after getting shellacked all week, my account was up 3.8%. I love midstream distributions week, picked up 2.87 shares of EPD, 1.52 shares of DCP, and 3.09 shares of MMP all from distribution reinvestment this week. That pushed me to now over $200/month in dividends/distributions. My goal is to have that at $2000/month within 10 years. Shit starts compounding faster as those numbers grow.
    Haha yeah, i lost a couple hundred dollars on LK fully knowing it was gambled money last year. I would not want to be investing in BABA as a gamble though (im gambling on Cobalt mining haha)- to me they are the flagship Chinese company to the rest of the world so i dont see the CCP doing something to ruin their standing in the worldwide business community. Chinese culture big into saving face and all. I could totally be wrong though. Tough call as i just see SOOO much upside and they have the perfect model to follow in Amazon.

    Its seems like it was an especially good year to get into dividend investing. If you started putting money in over the summer, dividend stocks have acted like growth stocks (except T) so you got the double whammy of growth plus dividends. Great work!

  11. #14086
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    Mar 2006
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    17,441
    Quote Originally Posted by californiagrown View Post
    Haha yeah, i lost a couple hundred dollars on LK fully knowing it was gambled money last year. I would not want to be investing in BABA as a gamble though (im gambling on Cobalt mining haha)- to me they are the flagship Chinese company to the rest of the world so i dont see the CCP doing something to ruin their standing in the worldwide business community. Chinese culture big into saving face and all. I could totally be wrong though. Tough call as i just see SOOO much upside and they have the perfect model to follow in Amazon.

    Its seems like it was an especially good year to get into dividend investing. If you started putting money in over the summer, dividend stocks have acted like growth stocks (except T) so you got the double whammy of growth plus dividends. Great work!
    Even after today total return for T is around 15% since last summer.

  12. #14087
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    Nov 2008
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    FWIW, while the CCP cares about China's standing on the world stage, like any bureaucracy what matters most is self preservation. China's tech conglomerates are huge. Alibaba, for example, is more than just e-commerce. They also own TV and online entertainment companies, film studios, TV and print news media, department stores, and the largest payment processor in China.

    The CCP will never allow another entity to rival its power. The media companies are a particular concern. So the BABA bet is not just on continued growth but that it can continue to grow in spite of its also capable large rivals (PDD, JD, etc.,) and in spite of the Chinese government.
    Last edited by MultiVerse; 05-17-2021 at 10:09 PM.

  13. #14088
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    Mar 2006
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    17,441

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Chinese regulators actually stepping up to throttle a tech giant threatening competition. Youíll never see that in USA. Wall Street always wins:

    Rui Ma agrees, and says the rules will help to foster more innovation for smaller companies in China who up till now have been squeezed out by the big players.

    "Local venture capitalists I've spoken to are generally supportive of these regulations," she says. "They think there's more opportunities to find younger, newer companies that never stood a chance before."

  14. #14089
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
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    Sea2Sky2Ski
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    I have a coin acct. blows my mind there is no bid or offer. Jesus! If I could have done the same back in the day.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    CoinbasePro
    OH, MY GAWD! ―John Hillerman   Big Billie Eilish fan.   This, my fellow chickens, is how Iíd create the perfect crypto machinery ― doomberg   Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect. ― Mark Twain

  15. #14090
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    Jun 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    COIN raising more money is because none of the share sales went to fund the company. The direct listing was just a way for insiders to liquidate personal stakes.
    Coinbase makes a lot off trades. 1% off the value of every sell. And the sell price is worse than other exchanges. They sell a good number of alts. I expect their next earnings will impress. The risk is high with this one. Vulnerable on many fronts. If crypto enters a long decline like 2018-2020 then the price will plummet. It will happen eventually. I wonder how many of the alts they bought in IPOs and now sell at full value profit. Probably quite a lot. Most crypto exchanges are loaded to the tits with stakes in various altcoins. It isn't an exchange, they fill shopping bags with house tokens. The PayPal integration is a winner. They are now exposing themselves and 'pro' clients to Tether (<3% cash backed). That wasn't announced with the debut but just recently. Tomorrow is Tether's first report due to the NYAG. We know what it says. We know the NYAG won't accept it. What happens is anyone's guess. In 2 years, COIN will be sitting at $48 or at $800.
    OH, MY GAWD! ―John Hillerman   Big Billie Eilish fan.   This, my fellow chickens, is how Iíd create the perfect crypto machinery ― doomberg   Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect. ― Mark Twain

  16. #14091
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    Nov 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Chinese regulators actually stepping up to throttle a tech giant threatening competition. You’ll never see that in USA. Wall Street always wins:

    Rui Ma agrees, and says the rules will help to foster more innovation for smaller companies in China who up till now have been squeezed out by the big players.

    "Local venture capitalists I've spoken to are generally supportive of these regulations," she says. "They think there's more opportunities to find younger, newer companies that never stood a chance before."
    Your article provides a nice summary of the situation: 34 companies, the who's who of China's tech world, were summoned by officials and warned: let Alibaba be a lesson to you.

  17. #14092
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    Mar 2006
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    I worked for ICE when they founded BAKKT, now part of spac VHI. Youíd think with their exchange experience it would have gone somewhere but itís been a flop. If there was broad institutional adaptations it would do better since BNY is the custodial partner.

    ICE has ironclad ethics rules so it could be why BAKKT hasnít thrived

  18. #14093
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    USA has allowed big tech to do whatever it wants. UBER, LYFT, and ABNB for example; Operate illegally and get too big to regulate. AMZN and EBAY went years without paying state and local taxes. Good and bad to both

  19. #14094
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    Mar 2006
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    Iím still expecting a rate spike. Not sure what the trigger will be but the 10y is creeping back to the previous high and TLT is looking like a breakdown.

  20. #14095
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    Dec 2010
    Posts
    1,589
    fuck it, im buying a chunk of BABA. I sold some of my KMI off and used my remaining cash reserves to buy the shares.

    Also, amazingly the PSLV i bought back in February (and have taken a bath on since) as part of the ill conceived silver squeeze is nearly back up to its highs and im nearly back to even haha. I really should sell that off, but maybe this time its for real! (says the insane person). Im way overweight on silver as SLV is my second largest holding. YOLO?

  21. #14096
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    Nov 2005
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    5,269
    Is BABA the emperor's favorite concubine?

  22. #14097
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    Nov 2002
    Location
    Cloud City
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    7,664
    GME in an uptrend on the daily.
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  23. #14098
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    Feb 2008
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    1,215
    I've been holding a little bit of BABA since shortly after the IPO; it's done about 15% CAGR over those 6-ish years, more like 22% at the October peak. Past results are no guarantee, blah blah, but you could do worse. I mean, you could buy/sell GME options and do a whole lot better too, but as a set and forget stock, it hasn't been bad for me.

  24. #14099
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Cloud City
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    Would you just look at GME, breaking out right now. Maybe you clever people want to put on your shorts, hahhahahahahaha!
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  25. #14100
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    Nhampshire
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    BABA will continue to grow, but it will have a ceiling, as others noted. It's basically China's Amazon in terms of marketplace+Cloud services provider. Their cloud is also pretty decent from what people in the space say, so it will continue to grow as China-adjacent markets continue to digitize and grow. While other cloud providers want into China, any smart one won't make the faustian deal to let CCP into their technical infrastructure as it will compromise any deal they do with the west (as well as potentially shut off US Fed stuff). I think only Oracle would be desperate enough for that. I need to do some work on our general savings+emergency fund soon - any good largely safe vehicles for parking liquid cash? I have way too much other shit going on right now to do lots of meaningful research.
    GME is continually hilarious as a pure finance vehicle. There's nothing in the backend of that company that's viable long term unless they pivot hard into vintage gaming. Native storefronts (Sony/Nintendo/Microsoft) have them beat on consoles, with Epic and Steam owning the PC market - especially with everything being digital purchases these days. In the meantime though, will be a fun ride and they may be able to grab enough mindshare to carve out a niche in something.

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