Is the stock market going to tank?

**Lawless** · 05-08-2021, 02:44 PM

Now, I don't consider myself to be a degenerate gambler, but I do miss the market on the weekends.

I've been looking at UWMC lately and probably going to move some money into it next week. Anyone want to try to talk me out of it?

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**LeeLau** · 05-09-2021, 04:38 PM

Originally Posted by Lawless

Now, I don't consider myself to be a degenerate gambler, but I do miss the market on the weekends.

I've been looking at UWMC lately and probably going to move some money into it next week. Anyone want to try to talk me out of it?

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

If you think the mortgage refi market as a whole is going to keep growing then sure. If you think RKTs projections are poor because UWMC is eating their lunch then sure. I don't have insight into any of that

**4matic** · 05-10-2021, 03:56 PM

10y note is still not that far off recovery high. A small spike in rates and the ARKK stocks will unravel. Last weeks outflow in ARKK was close to a billion.

**CovertM** · 05-10-2021, 04:13 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

10y note is still not that far off recovery high. A small spike in rates and the ARKK stocks will unravel. Last weeks outflow in ARKK was close to a billion.

From StockTwits:

"That moment when your fund blows up and you gotta resort to new income methods."

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**4matic** · 05-10-2021, 06:40 PM

Citi warning on internet ad revenue. The total budget for global ad spending only increases a few % every year. Starbucks said might drop FB ads

**4matic** · 05-10-2021, 07:18 PM

If BTC rolls over with stock futures look out below on speculative bubble. Nasdaq futures are down 1%+. lumbar and other commodities are vulnerable to big moves down.

**JimmyCarter** · 05-10-2021, 08:20 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

If BTC rolls over with stock futures look out below on speculative bubble. Nasdaq futures are down 1%+. lumbar and other commodities are vulnerable to big moves down.

Are you saying there's no lumbar support???

I'll see myself out.

**4matic** · 05-10-2021, 08:24 PM

Nasdaq failed to make a new high twice and the double top is far enough apart to be significant technically.

**4matic** · 05-10-2021, 08:45 PM

Originally Posted by JimmyCarter

Are you saying there's no lumbar support???

I'll see myself out.

Good one. I’ve already had one back surgery so..yeah.

**shera** · 05-11-2021, 04:33 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

10y note is still not that far off recovery high. A small spike in rates and the ARKK stocks will unravel. Last weeks outflow in ARKK was close to a billion.

Not sure if you guys do TA or what, but do you think ARKK can get below $100 and soon? I have a bunch of buy orders down there but trying to figure out if I should just put the money elsewhere. I'm loving this downturn across the market, is it because of tax selling? How long do you guess it might continue?

**CovertM** · 05-11-2021, 07:23 AM

Originally Posted by shera

Not sure if you guys do TA or what, but do you think ARKK can get below $100 and soon? I have a bunch of buy orders down there but trying to figure out if I should just put the money elsewhere. I'm loving this downturn across the market, is it because of tax selling? How long do you guess it might continue?

Futures seem to portend a drop below $100 today, who knows how far she drops.

Blood red day coming it seems.

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**4matic** · 05-11-2021, 07:52 AM

Originally Posted by shera

Not sure if you guys do TA or what, but do you think ARKK can get below $100 and soon? I have a bunch of buy orders down there but trying to figure out if I should just put the money elsewhere. I'm loving this downturn across the market, is it because of tax selling? How long do you guess it might continue?

I had first support at $100 and longer term support around $80. Turnaround Tuesday could maybe make a low but German bunds at two year high and US 10y ticking up again.

**shera** · 05-11-2021, 08:24 AM

Thanks guys. I have ARKK buy orders ranging between $97-77, fingers crossed to wick past that long term support...

I also have it in mind to place buy orders for more intel INTC if it gets below $50, I see supports at $44 and $38. Happy to hear any thoughts on that one?

**4matic** · 05-11-2021, 08:50 AM

If INTC goes below $50 market is a lot lower

**m2711c** · 05-11-2021, 03:58 PM

ouch…..

**4matic** · 05-13-2021, 11:41 AM

If DIA turns over today it could get busy.

**CovertM** · 05-13-2021, 04:15 PM

RIP Mara and Riot...Got assigned some MARA shares at $30, brings cost basis up a bit but still well below current value.

Have two SPAC positions left (IPOE, PSTH) looking for a pop on either to dump and move on, depending on the DA announcement for PSTH. If it's something great, may hold half for long term.

Scalped a couple CC on PLTR and RKT on small bounces this week, otherwise shit storm week in the YOLO account.

**Toadman** · 05-13-2021, 04:28 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Nasdaq futures are down 1%+. lumbar and other commodities are vulnerable to big moves down.

Oh, please let it happen! Like right now!

**CovertM** · 05-14-2021, 08:42 AM

https://www.collaborativefund.com/bl...your-own-game/

Another good one from Morgan...Should probably be put in the BTC thread, but i'm not going in there.

**californiagrown** · 05-14-2021, 09:01 AM

What are the collectives thoughts on BABA? Its basically China's amazon- the business model and their diversification into AI, web services, etc seems to follow very closely. Are investors scared that they will get kicked off the NYSE? I thought that had been put to bed? The price seems really low right now for what the company is and where it looks to be headed....

**MultiVerse** · 05-14-2021, 09:01 AM

Daniel Kahneman, mentioned in the article above, has a new book coming out with research that shows everyone even within a firm pursuing the same strategy is playing their own game:

"…we presented our findings to the senior managers of an asset management firm, prompting them to run their own exploratory noise audit. they asked forty-two experienced investors in the firm to estimate the fair value of a stock (the price at which investors would be indifferent to buying or selling). The investors based their analysis on a one-page description of the business; the data included ismplified profits and loss, balance sheet, and cash flow statements for the past three years and projections for the next two. median noise, measured in the same way as in the insurance company, was 41%. Such large differences among investors in the same firm, using the same valuation methods, cannot be good news."

**MultiVerse** · 05-14-2021, 09:41 AM

Originally Posted by californiagrown

What are the collectives thoughts on BABA? Its basically China's amazon- the business model and their diversification into AI, web services, etc seems to follow very closely. Are investors scared that they will get kicked off the NYSE? I thought that had been put to bed? The price seems really low right now for what the company is and where it looks to be headed....

The big concern with BABA and other tech stocks in China is Chinese regulators. The stocks look cheap especially compared to American tech but when management says something that irks the CCP regulators clamp down. That's been happening a lot lately.

Last year regulators shut down the Ant Group IPO after Jack Ma criticized the government. I own BABA and PDD and the steady stream of bad news means it might be a while before the 'buying opportunity' pans out. There's also geopolitical risk. China has been saber-rattling against Taiwan so sanctions and/or delisting are a possibility.

**dunfree** · 05-14-2021, 10:11 AM

Originally Posted by californiagrown

What are the collectives thoughts on BABA? Its basically China's amazon- the business model and their diversification into AI, web services, etc seems to follow very closely. Are investors scared that they will get kicked off the NYSE? I thought that had been put to bed? The price seems really low right now for what the company is and where it looks to be headed....

It’s not quite Amazon, but it’s a company with a real and useful service. Want some skis? https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/TALOS-downhill-ski-custom-freeride-ski_60724301445.html

afaik BABA is still an ADR for a Cayman Islands company contracted to get the profit from some Chinese entity, with all the cultural and legal risk that entails. And with any company these days, but especially Chinese ones, there’s the question if you believe the numbers.

**LeeLau** · 05-14-2021, 10:34 AM

Originally Posted by MultiVerse

Daniel Kahneman, mentioned in the article above, has a new book coming out with research that shows everyone even within a firm pursuing the same strategy is playing their own game:

"…we presented our findings to the senior managers of an asset management firm, prompting them to run their own exploratory noise audit. they asked forty-two experienced investors in the firm to estimate the fair value of a stock (the price at which investors would be indifferent to buying or selling). The investors based their analysis on a one-page description of the business; the data included ismplified profits and loss, balance sheet, and cash flow statements for the past three years and projections for the next two. median noise, measured in the same way as in the insurance company, was 41%. Such large differences among investors in the same firm, using the same valuation methods, cannot be good news."

Do enjoy behavioural economics in real life. Thanks for that.

Re BABA - what others have said re regulatory risk due to exceptional CCP regulatory capriciousness. There's other Chinese tech companies that have also been similarly discounted for that reason - eg Shanghai listed parent of TikTok, of WeChat, of Xiaomi

**BobMc** · 05-14-2021, 06:28 PM

That Luckin coffee thing didn’t work out so well, after watching that I decided no Chinese stonks. Although, I did recently buy a Taiwanese company’s stock.

Nice to have a decent day today after getting shellacked all week, my account was up 3.8%. I love midstream distributions week, picked up 2.87 shares of EPD, 1.52 shares of DCP, and 3.09 shares of MMP all from distribution reinvestment this week. That pushed me to now over $200/month in dividends/distributions. My goal is to have that at $2000/month within 10 years. Shit starts compounding faster as those numbers grow.