Is the stock market going to tank?

[Cono Este]

Your friend owns .6% of UPS?

And that’s after his aunt got half.

No joke. 5 plus million shares. His grandpa sunk 1 mm into in 1945 when ups bought a bunch of surplus DC-3’s.

The real message is that you hold good shit. It’s taken me decades to understand how generational wealth like that is created. It didn’t go public until 2000.


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[4matic]

That would be nice.

Mine was never “that” busy so you can really see a drop off.

[oldnew_guy]

Mine was never “that” busy so you can really see a drop off.

I think mine is worse because it is cheaper by 30-40 cents per gallon.

[4matic]

That’s right. Lines are how you draw them. Its not a science. Just a tool

[dunfree]

I been saying..my local Costco is way down on traffic and it’s basically drive up to the gas pumps.

TSA numbers still going up (Sunday the highest since thanksgiving) people shifting consumption from goods to services. Walmart/target/Costco ain’t all the same

[4matic]

TSA numbers still going up (Sunday the highest since thanksgiving) people shifting consumption from goods to services. Walmart/target/Costco ain’t all the same

Most of those travel plans were made months ago. I’m skeptical that keeps up unless airfares and hotel room prices come in.

COST down 13% today.

[muted reborn]

I saw a 20-30 cart wait trying to get out of Costco last week and a parking lot fuller than I've ever seen it. So COST should go up 10% next week based on this evidence, right?

[Cono Este]

It’s really happening.

We’re going into the absolute shitter.

Dow 25k.

Even my gold sucks.


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[Cono Este]

Whenever this happens I ask myself if there is something around the corner we don’t know about yet?

Could be a recession, or could be the war to end all wars.


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[4matic]

I saw a 20-30 cart wait trying to get out of Costco last week and a parking lot fuller than I've ever seen it. So COST should go up 10% next week based on this evidence, right?

Anecdotal is anecdotal. Nothing more. Right?

[4matic]

Whenever this happens I ask myself if there is something around the corner we don’t know about yet?

Could be a recession, or could be the war to end all wars.


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Treasury market blow up is top of my list

[Kevo]

Previous highs prior to pandemic when rates were lower. If rates are higher why not lower than that?

Well, in theory the economy has grown over the past two years, no?

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp

Not to say we won't have further contractions like we did in Q1.

This whole thing seems like kind of a crazy situation because there is no shelter in stock or bond indexes.

Maybe someone should tell the real estate market that the rest of the economy is crashing. I can imagine people buying at all time highs, with rates double what they were six months ago who believe that they are making a good decision.

[4matic]

Well, in theory the economy has grown over the past two years, no?

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp

Not to say we won't have further contractions like we did in Q1.

This whole thing seems like kind of a crazy situation because there is no shelter in stock or bond indexes.

Maybe someone should tell the real estate market that the rest of the economy is crashing. I can imagine people buying at all time highs, with rates double what they were six months ago who believe that they are making a good decision.

Since stock market is forward looking the growth for the last two years was priced in March 2020. So to go back to that price is nothing. Especially with rates 3x higher.

[dunfree]

Anecdotal is anecdotal. Nothing more. Right?

yeah, which is why I pointed out the target CEO’s narrative (average customer income $75k or something, they didn’t buy as much kitchen/tv last quarter). Walmart, average income $53k, blamed food inflation reducing sales of other stuff. COST (avg $93k)more like the former than the latter.

[4matic]

yeah, which is why I pointed out the target CEO’s narrative (average customer income $75k or something, they didn’t buy as much kitchen/tv last quarter). Walmart, average income $53k, blamed food inflation reducing sales of other stuff. COST (avg $93k)more like the former than the latter.

Consumer spending down across the board. Travel for sure could hold up well at least for the summer.

[up an down]

A bottom of 8K is a logical guess based upon the existing monthly support and resistance noted by the blue horizontal line.

I suspect the actions of the fed will probably play a larger role than technical analysis though.

Attachment 416742

Tech analysis is never a leading indicator.. But the Fed rate guidance certainly is... And every year automated trades are a larger % of total trade volume.. Makes for more volatility and also can make a direction of a trend much stronger than in the past... I won't be surprised by a test of 6,000-7,000 for the Nasdaq. Inflation is exacerbated by the war and the strong possibility of escalation because of Putin.... If another surge/mutation from Covid happens that would help destroy demand and lower prices of energy.. But food inflation may get worse because of current climate/drought/flooding problems..I guess I am a pessimist.. Or maybe a realist.. But I think 6-8% Fed funds rate is very possible by the end of 2023

[J. Barron DeJong]

Consumer spending down across the board. Travel for sure could hold up well at least for the summer.

Wut?



https://jabberwocking.com/retail-spe...up-7-in-april/

[4matic]

Backward looking and it looks like it peaked in 2021. Plus, even if spending goes up or stays flat that doesn’t mean companies make more with margin contractions.

[4matic]

Lumber and gasoline both down 6% today.

[4matic]

CSCO down almost 20% after earnings. It’s sucked for decades.

[4matic]

5/10 curve just inverted.

[sirbumpsalot]

$80B to Ukraine.....and now another $40B handout to restaurants....inflation isn't going anywhere:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/senat...184900504.html

[Cono Este]

Treasury market blow up is top of my list

Someone has had to have their ass handed to them. There is a whole generation of traders that have never seen 1 complete mkt cycle.

My bet is interest rate swaps


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[fastfred]

Had lunch in vail today the whole time I was staring at this older woman who wasn't bad looking definitely would bang after a 2 drink happy hour the work she has had done on her face was impeccable high quality stuff it just didn't match the wrinkled flab under her arms and on her legs

That's the economy in a nut shell right now


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[365wp]

His grandpa sunk 1 mm into in 1945 when ups bought a bunch of surplus DC-3’s...It’s taken me decades to understand how generational wealth like that is created.

And start with $1mil in 1945, dayum