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  1. #8151
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    Leadville, CO
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    4,162
    ^^i think they try to presell a lot so customers are locked in , so the tariffs would be when the company pays , i guess....
    My Company: Made in Colorado SKi Clothing- check it out

    Last year for 'Threads for Shreds' jacket trade in program!
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    20% Maggot Discount Code = 'MAGGOT20'

  2. #8152
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
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    8,607

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by Carl_Mega View Post
    So say you were waaaay cash heavy and don't find the current market valuation and volatility attractive for medium-long holds - basically waiting for a DJIA/S&P [some number or a tell] to trigger a series of buys into mutuals/indexes. What's your trigger before returning to equities? If fear hits and we enter bear/recession - there's got to be opportunity for people who are cash-liquid right?

    I'm obviously unsophisticated but I did well earlier this year buying in around DJIA 22K and exiting just shy of 27K. I'm interested in re-entering and investing but it seems silly to not just hold and see where we are when this ride stops shaking so wildly. I get it - trying to time is bad - but no way I'd wade into this mess right now. I guess I'm waiting for deals.
    My first serious buy would be at the pre election levels. Dow 18k or so. 1/3 down from where ever the high was. Then a double fisted buy at -40 from high. But I think the chances of a quick turn around are shit because it will ruin any chance of a trump re election and unless it Biden is on the ticket, people are going to be selling way ahead of a Warren or Sanders tax plan.

    Could be the perfect nightmare. Trump disrupting the global economy followed by tons of new regulatory red tape and taxes. Happens after most crashes.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  3. #8153
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
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    Down In A Hole, Up in the Sky
    Posts
    25,145
    StokePimpin' ain't easy

  4. #8154
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Posts
    11,980
    Those who ignore history....

    After nearly a decade of good times, things, all of a sudden, looked wobbly. The stock market fell sharply. The president — a wealthy man who had never been elected to office before, but was very sure of himself, thank you very much — reassured Americans that all was well and the future bright.

    Even so, the president thought one thing was needed to make things better: tariffs on America’s trade partners. Many economists and lawmakers argued against this, saying it would hurt trade, kill jobs and slow, if not contract, the economy. The president dismissed their reasoning, and into place the tariffs went.

    As economic uncertainty mounted, many investors moved into gold, which was perceived as a safe haven (so much so that the Treasury feared it might run out of bullion).

    And even though the economy had previously been good, many Americans feared immigrants were coming to take their jobs and sought to keep them out. Sure, Europeans were generally OK, particularly if they were from places like Norway, Sweden and Germany — in other words, if they looked “American.” The mood toward others was far less hospitable, and efforts were made to bar entire ethnic groups.

    More ominously, the anti-immigrant mood dovetailed with a resurgence by white supremacist groups like the Ku Klux Klan, which widened its hateful, racist agenda to include (along with blacks, of course) Jews and Catholics. Elites — well-educated Americans who lived in urban areas — were also despised. Klan membership soared to an estimated 2.5% to 6.5% of the population. Think about that. If that was today, that would mean some 21 million Americans in the KKK.

    In short, it was a hateful, divisive, dangerous time — even though the economy had been good.

    If the past is prologue, then the situation that President Trump finds himself in — and our country finds itself in — increasingly resembles what we’ve seen before. Don’t get me wrong: This isn’t 1929. But there are worrisome signs. Hate crimes are on the rise: The FBI reported 7,175 hate crimes in 2017 — a 17% jump from 2016. Among a sizable minority of Americans, there’s an anti-immigrant frenzy, the likes of which hasn’t been seen in this country since the 1920s. Emma Lazarus’s poem on the Statue of Liberty — “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free” — that was just meant for Europeans, the White House now claims. It’s another reminder, and a dangerous one, that history can be whitewashed for the ignorant.

    We’re told that the economy is the best it’s ever been — yet we tremble in fear at a new batch of huddled masses coming to pick our crops and change our hotel sheets. What the fearful don’t realize is that immigrants, both legal and otherwise, pay taxes, commit fewer crimes, and start far more businesses than native borns. Many — like from Nigeria, one of Trump’s so-called “sh*thole” countries — even tend to be far better educated than native borns.

    We’re told that the economy is the best it’s ever been. Yet stocks have cooled: The S&P 500 stands where it did in January 2018. The economy is growing, but it’s slowing rapidly. Job growth is slowing — the Labor Department said the economy had about 501,000 fewer jobs as of March 2019 than first estimated, based on its surveys of business establishments. Half a million — and even before this, monthly job growth had shifted into a lower gear.

    The new data clearly shows that the economy didn’t get the giant boost that President Trump promised his tax cuts and his deficit-busting spending would provide. So what do we have? Low interest rates, a monstrous deficit — up 27% in just a year and back in $1 trillion territory — and a soaring national debt. It has jumped over the $20 trillion, $21 trillion and now $22 trillion mark on his watch, and is now bigger than the U.S. economy itself (though it’s fair to point out that the debt is divided into two tranches: about 3/4 is held by the public and about 1/4 is intragovernmental debt). In the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30, interest on all this red ink will be nearly $400 billion. Next year taxpayers will fork over even more.

    Herbert Hoover was warned about tariffs and didn’t listen. Trump — who promised us that “trade wars are easy to win, believe me” (he now denies saying this) didn’t listen either. We’re now bogged down in a nasty battle with a country whose economy, is by some measures bigger than ours. The cost to you this year: $600, says a JP Morgan Chase report out this week. It adds you’ll take a $1,000 hit next year if Trump makes good on his threat to hit China (in other words you) with tariffs on another $300 billion worth of goods.

    Friday Trump learned that he’s not the only guy who knows how to throw a punch. Beijing said it would slap tariffs on $75 billion of American goods. The president — never one to turn the other cheek — may reverse his earlier decision to delayed his own next round of tariffs, saying he didn’t want to hurt Americans ahead of the Christmas shopping season.

    But if China is paying the tariffs as he keeps saying, how could Americans get hurt? This is a trick question. Everybody knows Americans are paying: JP Morgan Chase knows it, farmers know it, U.S. Steel — which is laying off hundreds at a plant in Michigan — knows it.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savi...CAz?li=BBnbfcN
    Mister Man! Mister Man! Mister Man. They left this card.

  5. #8155
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    Ventura Highway in the Sunshine
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    21,332
    Got my first "tariff charge" yesterday. Bought some RTIC products and got hit with an extra charge at checkout. So much for China paying the tariff.

    I agree it is a constitutional right for Americans to be assholes...its just too bad that so many take the opportunity...
    iscariot

  6. #8156
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,821

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by Platinum Pete View Post
    how is everyone invested in the market keeping their cool this week?
    Fed sequestered volatility has been so low for so long. 2-3% swings are really pretty normal long term

  7. #8157
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    the ham
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    6,251
    Quote Originally Posted by muted View Post
    vorkuta clothing took a dip on Tuesday for sure
    you might say he's washed up.

  8. #8158
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Location
    TennesseeJed
    Posts
    9,430
    Really expensive cars are dropping. Time to make some deals.
    "I don't pretend to have all the answers, and I think there's something to be said for that" -One For The Road

    Brain dead and made of money.

  9. #8159
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    Dec 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bobby Stainless View Post
    Really expensive cars are dropping. Time to make some deals.
    Interesting as a lot of economic data is crossing over into ugly territory.

    Stocks need fiscal spending on infrastructure. But that would require decent governance... a rare bird nowadays.

  10. #8160
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,821
    USD/CNY


  11. #8161
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
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    9,300ft
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    Rebalance 401K from 85% stocks with a good chunk of intl and small caps to 50% stocks only large and a touch of midcap.

    Tell me I'm dumb.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  12. #8162
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
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    Paper St. Soap Co.
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    2,316
    It will be interesting to see if China plays the long game and gives Donny a "deal" to help him get reelected. Seems more their style to save face and help tank things so he doesn't get elected. Plus the chaos of him not leaving office post election...although that is more Putin m.o.
    Last edited by 406; 08-27-2019 at 10:53 AM. Reason: reading comprehension fail

  13. #8163
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
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    4,926
    Quote Originally Posted by Summit View Post
    Rebalance 401K from 85% stocks with a good chunk of intl and small caps to 50% stocks only large and a touch of midcap.

    Tell me I'm dumb.
    Not saying you're wrong, but a few thoughts:
    1) Large cap stocks may not perform better because large/stable businesses are the one most impacted by all the uncertainty around shit like trade policy.
    2) Foreign markets, particularly asian markets, have been pummeled for a while already and are probably depressed relative to US markets. If we're all going down, US markets may go down relatively more.

  14. #8164
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
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    Paper St. Soap Co.
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    2,316
    oh wait, I didn't read what Summit posted. I sold all my s&p500 and kept int, small, mid. Next peak might sell more.

  15. #8165
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,821
    Quote Originally Posted by Summit View Post
    Rebalance 401K from 85% stocks with a good chunk of intl and small caps to 50% stocks only large and a touch of midcap.

    Tell me I'm dumb.
    After this hudge bond rally I'd prefer very short term debt or money market to a "new" bond allocation. A 30% allocation shift depending on your age doesn't move the needle that much so all ok.

  16. #8166
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
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    In a van... down by the river
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    3,819
    Quote Originally Posted by Summit View Post
    Rebalance 401K from 85% stocks with a good chunk of intl and small caps to 50% stocks only large and a touch of midcap.

    Tell me I'm dumb.
    Kinda depends on how old you are and when you plan to retire. Also - your risk-tolerance.

    You might be dumb.


  17. #8167
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
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    9,300ft
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    After this hudge bond rally I'd prefer very short term debt or money market to a "new" bond allocation. A 30% allocation shift depending on your age doesn't move the needle that much so all ok.
    Yea I realize that. It just took a bit to figure out how to do that with my situation which is actually TSP+401K. TSP is super limited in choices so I am gonna use that for equities because there is no short term debt or MM fund to choose. It's bonds indices or stock indices. There is a short term option in my 401. Finally figured it out.
    Now 2% bonds, 48% MM, 30% large, 5% mid, 8% small, 7% intl.
    From 12% bonds, 0%MM, 72% large, 0% mid, 8% small, 7% intl.
    Last edited by Summit; 08-27-2019 at 06:42 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  18. #8168
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    Dec 2008
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    5,130
    So bonds getting strong inflows as small caps capitulate and large caps try to stay up. Let's see if TLT can hit 200 as the world wakes up to the idea that stocks don't fare well in global recessions.

  19. #8169
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
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    MA
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    5,998
    Capitulate?

    Where’s the global recession data?
    Decisions Decisions

  20. #8170
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Posts
    1,632
    sort of have to love this current dbag and the unrest ensuing.

    i'm a charlie munger fanboy.

  21. #8171
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    MA
    Posts
    5,998
    How long has this “recession” been coming for? 5 years? Since November 2016?
    Decisions Decisions

  22. #8172
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
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    The Cone of Uncertainty
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    46,943
    Brock always makes me feel better.

    well, maybe not "always" always.

  23. #8173
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    Capitulate?

    Where’s the global recession data?
    Global markets peaked 18 months ago. Growth has nose-dived since around the developed world. The energy complex is very aware of what these things mean, why aren't you?

  24. #8174
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Loveland, Chair 9.
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    3,693
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    Capitulate?

    Where’s the global recession data?
    um, Germany; the largest economy in Europe is in contraction; i'd call that a good sign.

    Also, worldwide; auto sales have declined and in the usa some housing markets have been cooling.
    Eat em up Houston Cougars !

  25. #8175
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    Dec 2008
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    So China says they're growing at 6% but their trading partners are all in recession or headed towards one. Maybe we can divine something from econometrics to offset this disturbing reality.

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