Is the stock market going to tank?

[BobMc]

Not to jinx you but satisfactory returns?

I’m up 32% on my total cash in, a fair bit of it hasn’t been percolating very long. Most of the stuff I’ve been in since mid 2020 has done very well.

I planned on doing a post about this sometime this weekend, the poor people strike back.

[AEV]

Srs. Any advice on how to not let previous mistakes get in the way of future gains? I'm in my late 20s

[CovertM]

I’m up 32% on my total cash in, a fair bit of it hasn’t been percolating very long. Most of the stuff I’ve been in since mid 2020 has done very well.

I planned on doing a post about this sometime this weekend, the poor people strike back.

Nice Bob, keep it up.

[CovertM]

Srs. Any advice on how to not let previous mistakes get in the way of future gains? I'm in my late 20s

Recognize what caused your mistake (Chasing performance, FOMO, not having conviction in your trades, overleveraging, etc...)
Make a plan
Stick to your plan, DISCIPLINE
Don't YOLO money you can't afford to lose (Assuming that's the kind of trades you are asking about)

If not YOLO money, put it all in VTI and forget your password. Check it in 30 years.

[CovertM]

Both MARA and RIOT earnings followed my theses that miners are a leveraged bet on BTC. Costs are somewhat fixed so as BTC rises margins and actual fcf improves.

MARA has more BTC in inventory and better power buys locked in long term.

RIOT has more miners, has bought more miners.

I'll stick with RIOT and scale out in the 100s

Makes sense. I remember the DD linked piece pages back saying that MARA had more upside potential if large amount of miners were deployed and running.

I now have a larger stake in MARA than RIOT. It blows me away to go back and look at the premiums available in Feb and Early March. It took a while for me to recalibrate and be ok getting half of what I was used to selling options.

In your memory Lee, have you ever seen a time like this last year for selling options? Or is this a unicorn event and I need to get used to never getting those numbers again?

[shera]

Just out of curiosity, is this like a private thread or something? Are there other threads for GME and ARK?

[CovertM]

Just out of curiosity, is this like a private thread or something? Are there other threads for GME and ARK?

Go back to the posts in this thread from Dec.-Feb. GME was discussed very heavily. There was actually a thread solely devoted to GME back when it blew up. What else do you want to discuss about GME? Squeeze was Squoze IMO, and now it will be a slow bleed to FMV. Premiums for $100 strike CSP almost got me today, but I held off.

ARK is interesting and I had a small position in ARKK back in April of last year ($55ish range). Sold at the beginning of this year ($145ish). Didn't like holding a fund that's value was over 10% tied to Tesla. It was a fun runup last year as ZM, PLTR(kind of), and TSLA boomed, but not a long term hold for me.

[shera]

Thanks for the answer! You think squoze in spite of evidence to the contrary, such as FTDs? I am learning as I go along here, so appreciate any insights. I am holding and plan to vote in June. First time, learning so much!

TSLA, like others, has such high PE ratios, it is hard to fathom. Maybe inflation, maybe we will have explosive gdp to make sense of it all in a couple of years.

I wish I had some training in macro/economics - it is hard to play catchup. Even harder to figure out what's inside a very complicated black box.

Thanks for your answer.

[CovertM]

Thanks for the answer! You think squoze in spite of evidence to the contrary, such as FTDs? I am learning as I go along here, so appreciate any insights. I am holding and plan to vote in June. First time, learning so much!

TSLA, like others, has such high PE ratios, it is hard to fathom. Maybe inflation, maybe we will have explosive gdp to make sense of it all in a couple of years.

I wish I had some training in macro/economics - it is hard to play catchup. Even harder to figure out what's inside a very complicated black box.

Thanks for your answer.

My understanding from people smarter than me, is that short interest is below 20% down from 140ish%. That metric seems to tell the story that the shorts have covered and the January run up from $45 to $400ish was the squeeze with a secondary one in March from $40 to $300ish. But who knows...I have seen all of the ape theory (synthetic shares, FTD, covering through etfs) and still peruse there briefly, it was a seriously fun subreddit before GME exploded and the subreddit went from 2mm to 9+mm members seemingly overnight, but seems to have lost its way at this point.

Lee can probably give a much better analysis and was part of the trade from the get go AFAIK.

[LeeLau]

I posted at length about GME from a fundamentals perspective from the 12s. There's no need to rehash. I sold 80% of my position, kept 20% and am getting 15% per month of premium from it. Very satisfied.

Covert. As to your question. I wasn't as active pre 2008 in selling calls, puts but my recollection from some of the volatility gurus is that there were similar spikes in dotcom boom, Telco boom, mortgage boom era. What seems to be the difference now is the fat tail in call buyers ( ie the customers of thetagang) and added volume especially in short dated call options.

I'd guess that the 20 - 30% per month in my Yolo portfolio over the past year is not sustainable without taking on more risk. I suspect returns revert to mean but stay somewhat higher than mean as long as retail players are involved. Frankly I'd have been thrilled with 10% per month

[BobMc]

Of course, the morning I sell covered calls on two of my stocks they both receive price upgrades and or buy ratings. Heh.

Both of my orders filled at my higher than trading price from yesterday, so I got that going for me. Both my dates are in the future a bit, so I’m still liking the probability of buying them back cheaper.

It feels kinda weird hoping bad news comes across about one of my positions. I sold the Carnival call at a $30 strike, I’m betting on a longer pause in cruising. I have one scheduled for August, honestly I’d rather not go just yet. So far they’ve paused cruising from the US through June 30th. As they’ve not done much to adhere to the CDC guidelines to re-start cruising I doubt they cruise from here till at least the fall.

They’ve taken on a shitload of debt and I’m thinking at some point within the next three months a lot of folks will figure that out. I’m still long and want my shares.

The GE CC I’ll probably regret, sold it at $13 strike. The next time it dips below my price I’ll probably bow out.

[dschane]

It feels kinda weird hoping bad news comes across about one of my positions. I sold the Carnival call at a $30 strike, I’m betting on a longer pause in cruising. I have one scheduled for August, honestly I’d rather not go just yet. So far they’ve paused cruising from the US through June 30th. As they’ve not done much to adhere to the CDC guidelines to re-start cruising I doubt they cruise from here till at least the fall.

They’ve taken on a shitload of debt and I’m thinking at some point within the next three months a lot of folks will figure that out. I’m still long and want my shares..

I live in a cruise town of 30K that is over-run every summer daily with 15-20K soft-serve loving cruisers, so my opinion is skewed. That said, I maintain that the big 3 are fucked. Not bankruptcy fucked, but their bottom lines will significantly suffer from their debt load, a slower return to cruising than their boosters have been boosting, and the need to deploy efforts to manage the coronavirus for the foreseeable future. I remain amazed and impressed at how well their stock prices have done and have a hard time seeing that change before the close of the 3rd quarter. They're kind of a barometer of market insanity in my mind, along with a few others.

[BobMc]

That didn’t take long, Carnival down on covid news, bought back my Carnival call for $60 less than I got. When it gets back to $30 I’m going to sell that call again, lather rinse repeat. Still not sure what I’m doing with options, so for now I’m going with the if you can take profit, do it. I’ve been reading the CFRA reports on Ameritrade and using their strategies, then adding a bit here and there.

I signed up for Seeking Alpha premium, so far liking the content. Lotta decent articles affirming my positions, and just enough to make me wonder my decisions.

[CovertM]

That didn’t take long, Carnival down on covid news, bought back my Carnival call for $60 less than I got. When it gets back to $30 I’m going to sell that call again, lather rinse repeat. Still not sure what I’m doing with options, so for now I’m going with the if you can take profit, do it. I’ve been reading the CFRA reports on Ameritrade and using their strategies, then adding a bit here and there.

I signed up for Seeking Alpha premium, so far liking the content. Lotta decent articles affirming my positions, and just enough to make me wonder my decisions.

I've found (from Lee's information shared) that sticking to a % of profit before closing is very helpful. Pick a number or range and close positions when that is realized. I've personally stuck to 60-70% for most positions and gone lower when profit is realized quickly and you can close and redeploy elsewhere.

I've also found that keeping a spreadsheet with all trades made can be useful to look back on and remind yourself of lessons. Also to keep track of accounting as my BD does not provide great tracking of CB and total revenue from options.

[LeeLau]

I've also found that keeping a spreadsheet with all trades made can be useful to look back on and remind yourself of lessons. Also to keep track of accounting as my BD does not provide great tracking of CB and total revenue from options.

IBKR keeps track via xls. 80% + of my wheel trades are successful with 15% needing to be rolled to subsequently to be successful and 5% fail. This is over 12 years.

Successful - greater than 80% profit
Failure - closed out with a loss.

Sold RIOT 58C yday. Sold more today. Sold DASH 142P today to try to close out short

[CovertM]

IBKR keeps track via xls. 80% + of my wheel trades are successful with 15% needing to be rolled to subsequently to be successful and 5% fail. This is over 12 years.

Successful - greater than 80% profit
Failure - closed out with a loss.

Sold RIOT 58C yday. Sold more today. Sold DASH 142P today to try to close out short

Thanks, I've been tracking and keeping 60-70% as a "success". My all time profit (net after cost to close) after about 80 trades is right around 65%. It would be much higher but I had some blood red poundings at the get go (Buying back RIOT CC for double premium received). So far I only have 5 total loss trades.

How do you structure (success or fail) assignment on CSPs? Success if you are able to generate premium on the flip side and close for a profit?

To be honest I am starting to lose the motivation to continue this strategy while things have calmed down. Have been entering way less trades and probably for good reason. Thinking I will keep some of the tried and true wheeling, but allocate more cash into long term position for the time being. Looking to reopen wheel strategy on Meme stonk when things get good again. Maybe I'm looking in the wrong places.

Also, what do you do when you're out and about? Close all trades? I'm heading out on a spring ski/mountaineer trip next week and will likely have no access. Close them out of let that shit ride

[LeeLau]

CSPs. I use them to close out short positions. Or to leg into more longs. Or purely to wheel and generate premium. The latter I don't do quite as much as covered calls for the reason that there's generally more call than put buyers so it's harder to find over-aggressive put buyers as my customers.

Having said that I do use puts to generate premium. Using MSFT as my example selling the 20 deltas generates 1.5- 2% per year. Not much but it all adds up. I treat them as a gain the same as I do calls but expect less return.

There are CSP exceptions which generate a ton of income but they're rare. DASH is returning 15% per month (using CSPs to close out short sell). GME returned 65% over 2 months but has fallen off lately. QS returned 105% in 1 very glorious month.

If I'm out of cell range for a month I roll forward and worry about it when I get back.

[rod9301]

IBKR keeps track via xls. 80% + of my wheel trades are successful with 15% needing to be rolled to subsequently to be successful and 5% fail. This is over 12 years.

Successful - greater than 80% profit
Failure - closed out with a loss.

Sold RIOT 58C yday. Sold more today. Sold DASH 142P today to try to close out short

Right, but the last 12 years have been exceptionally good.

Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

[LeeLau]

Right, but the last 12 years have been exceptionally good.

Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

I am more than aware of that.

Bought 1 share of COIN at 420.69

[pureantigravity]

What you don't know is that Lee has a special ear implant gifted to him from Michael Saylor back in the year 2000.

"Saylor has taken to the airwaves and to print as a technological avatar. He says he is pioneering a revolutionary business that he calls “telepathic intelligence.” Soon, Saylor preaches, everyone will be equipped with a wrist chip and a tiny earplug. Saylor’s computers will process massive amounts of data, then tailor it for you. A voice in your ear will caution you not to take that medicine, urge you to sell that stock because it is tumbling*, advise you which road to take to avoid traffic."**

I wonder if this is where all these 5G chips ideas came from? I wonder if all the anti-vaxers got those earpieces too?

*Probably bad advice for an earpiece to urge you to sell a stock because it is tumbling.
**from Michael Saylor: MicroStrategy’s cult leader https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...el-saylor.html

[pureantigravity]

Anyways, watching closely to see what happens with that COIN listing. Will it dive back under $250, or will it moon? Or will it deliver typical market returns and not be a standout? And will it crash all the same as crypto when that does what it always does?
Fun times!!!

[shera]

Anyways, watching closely to see what happens with that COIN listing. Will it dive back under $250, or will it moon? Or will it deliver typical market returns and not be a standout? And will it crash all the same as crypto when that does what it always does?
Fun times!!!

Well said. I bought 1 little share at $353 just to get some skin in the game. Been watching it all day, down to almost $310. If it goes under $300 I'll buy another share, but zooming back up now. I do love volatility!

[pureantigravity]

I am more than aware of that.

Bought 1 share of COIN at 420.69

LOL. It took me a while.

[Lawless]

Sold a few MARA CSP's today on the decline expiring this week and next. I've never owned a share of it yet, but that may change if it doesn't turn around in the next few days, which I would be alright with.

Premiums have still been decent on that one.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[CovertM]

Sold a few MARA CSP's today on the decline expiring this week and next. I've never owned a share of it yet, but that may change if it doesn't turn around in the next few days, which I would be alright with.

Premiums have still been decent on that one.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

Agreed, RIOT and MARA are still producing well. I seem to sell (CC and CSP) a day or two early each time, but fortunately positions have recovered every time so far.

I was content selling $30-$33 CSP on MARA but have since moved up to $35-38 as its seems to have found some support there (I know fuckall about TA).