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  1. #11551
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    Quote Originally Posted by bennymac View Post
    That NYT article was interesting.

    “Over 90 percent of the value of stocks is dependent on earnings more than a year in the future,’’ he said. ‘‘The market is very forward-looking.’’ Investors weren’t thinking six months ahead; they were thinking a year or two ahead, Siegel said, by which point the virus would probably have been brought under control.
    I’m not sure that holds water. Was the market really looking more than a year ahead when it crashed in April? It was the immediate impact of shutting down the economy that caused that.

    To me, the market has become a game, and any correlation to underlying values, either from current or future earnings, are tenuous at best.

    The money has to go somewhere. And with interest rates so low, owning bonds makes little sense. You might as well keep it in cash with less risk than bonds.

    Stocks are pretty much the only choice if you want the chance to make gains (other than maybe gold or bitcoin). With the Fed determined to not let the stock market crash, it doesn’t seem like that bad of a bet. But we’ll see.

  2. #11552
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    Dec 2005
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    It crashed in March not April yeah? And it was a pretty dramatic crash but then had rebounded all the way back up. It might feel like late March was a long time ago but we’re talking about 2 months.

  3. #11553
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    Dollar well off it’s high is good for stocks. it could mean a little more inflation which is also good for stocks. More than $1 trillion in corporate debt has been issued this year at low rates so financing is largely set at low rates with a fed backstop.


    https://apple.news/AKlEiXUCETBCWMhO2cwdoTA


    Corporations raise $1 trillion in the bond market amid Fed backstop, double the pace of last year

  4. #11554
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    Quote Originally Posted by bennymac View Post
    It crashed in March not April yeah? And it was a pretty dramatic crash but then had rebounded all the way back up. It might feel like late March was a long time ago but we’re talking about 2 months.
    Yeah, you’re right, it was March.

  5. #11555
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Dollar well off it’s high is good for stocks. it could mean a little more inflation which is also good for stocks. More than $1 trillion in corporate debt has been issued this year at low rates so financing is largely set at low rates with a fed backstop.


    https://apple.news/AKlEiXUCETBCWMhO2cwdoTA


    Corporations raise $1 trillion in the bond market amid Fed backstop, double the pace of last year
    yeah, but is inflation good for the consumer?
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  6. #11556
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    yeah, but is inflation good for the consumer?
    And if they riot in the streets because they can’t afford to eat, the market will go up.

  7. #11557
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    Mar 2006
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    All that corporate cash was borrowed from the same people that will get increasing dividends from the equity. It’s genius.

  8. #11558
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    Name:  amateur.jpg
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  9. #11559
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    I'm sticking to the theory that this market is being driven by all the gambling and sports gambling money that has been shut down, along with millions of middle class guys with a little bit to invest and nothing better to do. I've heard more than one smart person say it, including a recent Nobel winner, Richard Thaler. As you all know, it's really easy and cheap to do these days. I have read that all the online brokerage firms have seen big increases in enrollments.

    So, therefore, we are in the shoeshine boy and taxi driver giving tips stage of market bubbling, if you want to compare it to 1929. Not good. I really fail to see the return for all the downside risk. Even if you believe that we're pricing ahead for the economy in two years, than you're thinking you're going to make, what, 15-20% each year until then? From where we are now, essentially the same levels as last fall, ten years into a bull market? With cities burning? Nope.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  10. #11560
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ted Striker View Post
    Name:  amateur.jpg
Views: 305
Size:  101.1 KB
    MINNEAPOLIS—Calling for a more measured way to express opposition to police brutality, critics slammed demonstrators Thursday for recklessly looting businesses without forming a private equity firm first. “Look, we all have the right to protest, but that doesn’t mean you can just rush in and destroy any business without gathering a group of clandestine investors to purchase it at a severely reduced price and slowly bleed it to death,” said Facebook commenter Amy Mulrain, echoing the sentiments of detractors nationwide who blasted the demonstrators for not hiring a consultant group to take stock of a struggling company’s assets before plundering. “I understand that people are angry, but they shouldn’t just endanger businesses without even a thought to enriching themselves through leveraged buyouts and across-the-board terminations. It’s disgusting to put workers at risk by looting. You do it by chipping away at their health benefits and eventually laying them off. There’s a right way and wrong way to do this.” At press time, critics recommended that protestors hold law enforcement accountable by simply purchasing the Minneapolis police department from taxpayers.

  11. #11561
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    Quote Originally Posted by billyk View Post
    Stocks are pretty much the only choice if you want the chance to make gains (other than maybe gold or bitcoin). With the Fed determined to not let the stock market crash, it doesn’t seem like that bad of a bet. But we’ll see.
    Iranians apparently agree:

    https://www.economist.com/middle-eas...ng-stockmarket

  12. #11562
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    Sep 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dantheman View Post
    MINNEAPOLIS—Calling for a more measured way to express opposition to police brutality, critics slammed demonstrators Thursday for recklessly looting businesses without forming a private equity firm first. “Look, we all have the right to protest, but that doesn’t mean you can just rush in and destroy any business without gathering a group of clandestine investors to purchase it at a severely reduced price and slowly bleed it to death,” said Facebook commenter Amy Mulrain, echoing the sentiments of detractors nationwide who blasted the demonstrators for not hiring a consultant group to take stock of a struggling company’s assets before plundering. “I understand that people are angry, but they shouldn’t just endanger businesses without even a thought to enriching themselves through leveraged buyouts and across-the-board terminations. It’s disgusting to put workers at risk by looting. You do it by chipping away at their health benefits and eventually laying them off. There’s a right way and wrong way to do this.” At press time, critics recommended that protestors hold law enforcement accountable by simply purchasing the Minneapolis police department from taxpayers.
    Is it wrong that I laughed at this?
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  13. #11563
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    I'm sticking to the theory that this market is being driven by all the gambling and sports gambling money that has been shut down, along with millions of middle class guys with a little bit to invest and nothing better to do. I've heard more than one smart person say it, including a recent Nobel winner, Richard Thaler. As you all know, it's really easy and cheap to do these days. I have read that all the online brokerage firms have seen big increases in enrollments.
    Anecdotally this seems true. I've expanded my Covid scams screen generally to penny stock pump and dumps. I had thought these moonshot stocks would run out of momentum as traders got eaten up. But I was wrong and there seems to be a large supply of fresh meat for the kill.

  14. #11564
    Liquidity Benny, liquidity. Seasonal liquidity dry ups coincide with collapses while infusions trigger spontaneous index levitation. Goes a long way towards explaining collapsing velocity & soaring inter-generational inequality. The willful suspension of (some) consequences (for some).

    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    I'm sticking to the theory that this market is being driven by all the gambling and sports gambling money that has been shut down, along with millions of middle class guys with a little bit to invest and nothing better to do. I've heard more than one smart person say it, including a recent Nobel winner, Richard Thaler. As you all know, it's really easy and cheap to do these days. I have read that all the online brokerage firms have seen big increases in enrollments.

    So, therefore, we are in the shoeshine boy and taxi driver giving tips stage of market bubbling, if you want to compare it to 1929. Not good. I really fail to see the return for all the downside risk. Even if you believe that we're pricing ahead for the economy in two years, than you're thinking you're going to make, what, 15-20% each year until then? From where we are now, essentially the same levels as last fall, ten years into a bull market? With cities burning? Nope.

  15. #11565
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    Oct 2003
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    Jezuz, that second sentence. I had a professor in college that would have made your life hell for an hour for typing that.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  16. #11566
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    How much of this is being driven by the regular 401(k) and IRA contributions that every upper middle-class working stiff is paying on a regular basis?

    I mean, they only get once a year to reallocate their assets and then they just deal with the shit that happens for the rest of the year, correct?

    Isn’t that just pumping a shit load of money into the market every single month?

    25% unemployment mean that 75% of the people are still working...

  17. #11567
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    Nov 2005
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    ^^Unemployment makes a big cut into that, though.

    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    we are in the shoeshine boy and taxi driver giving tips stage of market bubbling,
    I lean this way, too, but another alternative is "don't fight the Fed." If the taxi driver and the shoeshine boy are the last money in, ok, but what if the Fed just keeps printing?

  18. #11568
    Either revolution or currency collapse. Stasis can only last so long when the new money is going to the rich at a clip of 3:1 or worse.

  19. #11569
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    Quote Originally Posted by m2711c View Post
    How much of this is being driven by the regular 401(k) and IRA contributions that every upper middle-class working stiff is paying on a regular basis?

    I mean, they only get once a year to reallocate their assets and then they just deal with the shit that happens for the rest of the year, correct?

    Isn’t that just pumping a shit load of money into the market every single month?

    25% unemployment mean that 75% of the people are still working...
    The 401K that I have allows you to rebalance more often than that, but you are right that 401Ks pump a LOT of money into the market.

  20. #11570
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ted Striker View Post
    Name:  amateur.jpg
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    Hennepin Av in Minneapolis has looted stores and... a Federal Reserve Bank.

  21. #11571
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    I lean this way, too, but another alternative is "don't fight the Fed." If the taxi driver and the shoeshine boy are the last money in, ok, but what if the Fed just keeps printing?
    There's a substantial portion of belief in that motivating not just the institutional but also the retail crowd. And by and large, it's working

  22. #11572
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    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  23. #11573
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    Quote Originally Posted by m2711c View Post
    How much of this is being driven by the regular 401(k) and IRA contributions that every upper middle-class working stiff is paying on a regular basis?

    I mean, they only get once a year to reallocate their assets and then they just deal with the shit that happens for the rest of the year, correct?

    ...
    If your 401k only allows you to rebalance once a year you should look into moving it to an IRA if you have a triggering event.

    Most are daily, assuming you don’t draw attention from the fund companies for excessive trading.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  24. #11574
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    Nov 2005
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    There's a substantial portion of belief in that motivating not just the institutional but also the retail crowd. And by and large, it's working
    Right. And while it seems obviously dangerous as brothisweek noted, it's hard to guess when it ends. Given the current politicians I don't see anyone going out on a limb against kicking the can one more time and the longer that works the riskier it seems to be (politically) for anyone bucking the trend.

    Anything besides gold seem like a good hedge these days?

  25. #11575
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    Jan 2005
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    Anything besides gold seem like a good hedge these days?
    Bro, if this comes crashing down, everything comes down. Gold, BTC, Oil. Everything.....

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