Is the stock market going to tank?

[Kevo]

Didn't most Robinhood users bail on the platform after they restricted the buy button during the GME runup last year?

They shot themselves in the foot by shooting their target market in the back. I think there is a good chance it goes to zero anyway.

[dunfree]

So if the SEC is really eliminating PFOF, Robinhood is a zero right?

robinhood, coinbase, draftkings, same business

[4matic]

10y Italy bond up 300bps yoy. I’m old enough to remember the last Italian bond crisis (2018). Does ECB hang Draghi out to dry?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IRLTLT01ITM156N

[4matic]

Didn't most Robinhood users bail on the platform after they restricted the buy button during the GME runup last year?

They shot themselves in the foot by shooting their target market in the back. I think there is a good chance it goes to zero anyway.

I read that because HOOD client balances are so small it doesn’t make sense for acquisition by larger BD because of costs.

[BobMc]

I put my order and 50% deposit down on the drift boat, should see it by the first of next year. Business has been well with my shop lately so we paid cash for the deposit.

So, that meant I could use the cash I’d been holding in my TD account. Put in an order for 8 shares of AMZN, cheap enough for me to buy after the split. It’ll be a long term hold, I order a lot of shit from them as I think a lot of others do as well. Fuel costs will probably cut into margins in the short term but I think they’ll figure a way out of that.

Ordered up 20 shares of HUN, chemicals are another thing that people are going to need regardless of inflation. It yields at 2.3% so that is a draw, and it feels pretty safe.

Set a $6 July 1, put order on SOFI, hoping to get $51. I ended up buying back the ET put I sold for $51 at $4, looking like I could’ve had the $4 as well but anytime I can buy them back under $5 and no fees I do it.

Looks like I’ll be assigned on my XOM call and will have missed out on gains, but I’m still 100%+ ahead. It’s going to be hard for me not to put it into EPD, but I may look around at some other dividend/distribution stuff.

[Buzzworthy]

Bought more AMZN as well today. Definitely a long term investment.
Congrats on the boat.

[yeahman]

I was thinking about Amazon the other day and wondering what the future holds. Almost all companies have their own website selling platform dialed these days so I buy more direct from the source and less from AMZN, except for specialty stuff that is really hard to find. Their shipping sucks, although that problem is not unique to them, but the cost of Prime keeps going up and there is a limit to what people will pay for unreliable delivery. Small online retailers have a lot of options and no longer need to operate on Amazon. I guess their web services are doing well though? I dunno it just seems like maybe Amazon has kind of jumped the shark or is starting to. Anyway this article about stock splits of tech giants making them possibly less attractive is interesting. I wonder if Alphabet will back off their planned 20-1 split this summer.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...for-tech-watch

[Kevo]

8.6% CPI

Real interest rate is -7.85%.

Better consider a rate hike to 1.25% and see what happens.

[summit]

Well lots of things on sale...

[dunfree]

I was thinking about Amazon the other day and wondering what the future holds. Almost all companies have their own website selling platform dialed these days so I buy more direct from the source and less from AMZN, except for specialty stuff that is really hard to find. Their shipping sucks, although that problem is not unique to them, but the cost of Prime keeps going up and there is a limit to what people will pay for unreliable delivery. Small online retailers have a lot of options and no longer need to operate on Amazon. I guess their web services are doing well though? I dunno it just seems like maybe Amazon has kind of jumped the shark or is starting to. Anyway this article about stock splits of tech giants making them possibly less attractive is interesting. I wonder if Alphabet will back off their planned 20-1 split this summer.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...for-tech-watch

advertising- lots of small businesses advertising using Amazon to acquire customers


the doomer shit is amazing, consumer sentiment is now worse than it was at the worst of the GFC. Just amazing seeing people with 10x the assets and income they did then dooming

[LeeLau]

advertising- lots of small businesses advertising using Amazon to acquire customers


the doomer shit is amazing, consumer sentiment is now worse than it was at the worst of the GFC. Just amazing seeing people with 10x the assets and income they did then dooming

AWS still reigns Supreme too. Amzn also has big first mover advantage.

Starting to dip into SHOP

Covering SNAP probably as I sold 14 puts

Starting RDBX short

[4matic]

A star burns brightest before it explodes. The areas Fed can affect with rates are going down in flames. Wages, employment, retail sales, Inflation minus food and energy. Tech layoffs are coming. A lot of them.

[yeahman]

advertising- lots of small businesses advertising using Amazon to acquire customers

True, but even online advertising has changed quite a bit with social media influencers siphoning off some of those dollars that used to go to Amazon and Google, and that could continue to play an increasingly big roll in how companies spend ad dollars. Could have an effect on Alphabet too in the long run. But yeah I know these companies have their fingers in a lot of pies and are such behemoths it's hard to imagine anything displacing them any time soon. But... shit's always changing and it happens fast. I think for Google AI is perhaps the real future.

[Kevo]

Amazon makes $31 billion per year from advertising. Probably 40% of every product page and search results page on their website is a paid ad spot.

All of the "related products" diagrams that show you how the widget you are looking at stacks up to the competition are paid ad spots. Many of the search results are sponsored. It's wild.

[summit]

MSFT will no longer enforce most non-competes and will list salary ranges in ads.
https://www.businessinsider.com/micr...culture-2022-6 (sorry for the BI)

INTC issues some hiring freezes - a dividend paying tech industrial with a PE<7... I keep buying them...
https://fortune.com/2022/06/09/chip-...-dave-zinsner/

TSLA/RIVN Biden is going to require a charger every 50 miles on the interstate, wants 500K chargers built. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-...rging-network/

[DBdude]

A star burns brightest before it explodes. The areas Fed can affect with rates are going down in flames. Wages, employment, retail sales, Inflation minus food and energy. Tech layoffs are coming. A lot of them.

hiring is still strong

the fed put a lot of money out there over the past ten years

with the increase in interest and getting paper off the fed balance sheet is eventually going to reduce the money supply by ten percent or more

any ideas for where to go to invest?

low grade paper issued by companies that have a positive outlook?

right now I am in qqq and the sqqq and my work retirement fund

[schuss]

A star burns brightest before it explodes. The areas Fed can affect with rates are going down in flames. Wages, employment, retail sales, Inflation minus food and energy. Tech layoffs are coming. A lot of them.

There's plenty of room for tech wages to move and people to move to different spots. It's hard to underscore how underweight most companies are on software engineers, especially good ones.
Hell, go search any large company in their technology section.
Just JPMC has 8k openings - https://jpmc.fa.oraclecloud.com/hcmU...nLevel=country
Walmart has 1400+ - https://careers.walmart.com/results?...e-bd7da8ca0000

[dschane]

Right now, the tech employment news is mixed. The rescinded offers and hiring freezes of some big names are well known. The FT has a good article on this issue and basically says there's a divide right now.

"But with almost 17,000 workers laid off in May, according to its tally based on media reports and worker submissions, some company leaders appeared to share the “super bad feeling” about the economy expressed by Tesla chief executive Elon Musk this month."

And,

"Job postings for software developers in the US are up 120 per cent above an early 2020 pre-coronavirus pandemic baseline, according to data from recruitment site Indeed.com. ZipRecruiter, another job listings site, said the number of openings in the tech sector was strong, with about 1.6 jobs for every unemployed person in the industry."

[yeahman]

Amazon makes $31 billion per year from advertising. Probably 40% of every product page and search results page on their website is a paid ad spot.

All of the "related products" diagrams that show you how the widget you are looking at stacks up to the competition are paid ad spots. Many of the search results are sponsored. It's wild.

Yeah, all those sponsored search results are one reason I stay away from Amazon if at all possible these days. It's no longer really a place to go for authentic product reviews either. Sure you can sift through all the BS but it's annoying.

Hey I owned two shares of AMZN and now I own 40 since the split, so I hope they continue to do well. I just feel like the site has changed a lot, and not for the better IMO.

[summit]

I now own 1 share of AMZN and 2 shares of RIVN (and no TSLA). I bought a bunch of SPY, some TQQQ, INTL, and a little MSFT

[dunfree]

Yeah, all those sponsored search results are one reason I stay away from Amazon if at all possible these days. It's no longer really a place to go for authentic product reviews either. Sure you can sift through all the BS but it's annoying.

Hey I owned two shares of AMZN and now I own 40 since the split, so I hope they continue to do well. I just feel like the site has changed a lot, and not for the better IMO.

definitely a worse consumer experience, but that’s also the state of retail - they all sell ads and shelf space at a certain size. Amazon is up to ~40% of US package delivered per some estimates, that’s a large logistics moat. Definitely a bunch of stuff that feels Day 2 about the company now, but where is the consumer go for new product discovery of tedious shit like cords, cables, peppercorns? The wilds of google searchs twenty ads?

[4matic]

hiring is still strong

the fed put a lot of money out there over the past ten years

with the increase in interest and getting paper off the fed balance sheet is eventually going to reduce the money supply by ten percent or more

any ideas for where to go to invest?

low grade paper issued by companies that have a positive outlook?

right now I am in qqq and the sqqq and my work retirement fund

I still like Bonds for the risk/reward. No way economy handles higher rates. Look at 2018 when 10y hit 3.20. Backlash will be worse now and already is. Mortgage rates will have a 6 handle next week.

Just because there are job postings in tech doesn’t mean they are going to hire or even interview. I’ve seen this several times. Companies not hiring is a bad look for Wall Street so they will always post openings even as they layoff.

It has to come. The decline in equity values, especially if it continues, forces companies to cut costs.

DXY up 1% today. MSFT already warned about fx hit and that is also getting worse.

[dunfree]

Lol

[4matic]

Lol

Jeremy Grantham is looking sage

[4matic]

the doomer shit is amazing, consumer sentiment is now worse than it was at the worst of the GFC. Just amazing seeing people with 10x the assets and income they did then dooming

What percent of people have 10x?

10y rate is still ticking higher late today