Is the stock market going to tank?

**MTT** · 03-11-2022, 05:20 PM

Originally Posted by 406

I bought 1 share a few days ago to see if it was possible and what would happen. Tried selling today and TD Ameritrade said I would get $.07,( no fee) and order was declined. Hopefully I don't get hit with a bunch of crazy fees for being stupid.

Thanks for sharing that. So it moved pretty quickly.

Are there people out there who would have jumped all over Russian stock thinking it would make a profit?

Will your share disappear? Or is it possible for it to recover at some point in the future?

Can you wipe out a countries wealth? Rather than just hold it for a time

**jono** · 03-11-2022, 06:08 PM

Originally Posted by MTT

Thanks for sharing that. So it moved pretty quickly.

Are there people out there who would have jumped all over Russian stock thinking it would make a profit?

Will your share disappear? Or is it possible for it to recover at some point in the future?

Can you wipe out a countries wealth? Rather than just hold it for a time

Let us know what they say if you head over to claim it.

**MTT** · 03-11-2022, 06:12 PM

Originally Posted by jono

Let us know what they say if you head over to claim it.

What?
I’m all in in the NASDAQ. I think?

Your not helping. Should I post something in the guns thread about Russian ammo so you can flatulate in there

**jono** · 03-11-2022, 06:27 PM

Originally Posted by MTT

What?
I’m all in in the NASDAQ. I think?

Your not helping.

Is that true though? I mean, do you perceive the answer to your question "Can you wipe out a countries wealth? Rather than just hold it for a time" or is that something you're still chewing on?

**summit** · 03-11-2022, 07:11 PM

Originally Posted by oldnew_guy

I seem to recall Kevo saying something about buying real estate as an inflation hedge. Maybe a year ago.

unless nobody can buy and everyone is selling because their ARMs and HELOCs are at 15%

**MTT** · 03-11-2022, 09:04 PM

Originally Posted by jono

Is that true though? I mean, do you perceive the answer to your question "Can you wipe out a countries wealth? Rather than just hold it for a time" or is that something you're still chewing on?

I don’t recall that ever happening. So I’m asking. I’m not interested in investment.

**jono** · 03-11-2022, 10:58 PM

Quit making me slap my sarcasm meter. The damn thing is finicky enough and I don't want it to recalibrate to this level.

You don't recall a country ever cutting itself off from the world before? It's happened a bunch. The stuff sitting in that country will still be there. Some of it will belong to the same people as before. But mostly the ones who aren't there no longer own stuff that is. (Google: nationalized assets)

Unless they make a really sweet NFT, of course, because then title is on the blockchain. And everyone respects the blockchain.

**rod9301** · 03-12-2022, 12:41 AM

Originally Posted by LeeLau

I can't recall who was long RIVN but imo it looks lower. That's a short term view by me. Any comparisons with TSLA should be with a grain of salt as Tesla is a cult and cults don't behave normally. Any of the no 2, 3, or 4 or less players in this space will not have that same cult status

I also can't recall who else is long RSX in this thread but be aware that the ETF manager has been liquidating whatever assets they have with cash in the fund going from roughly 2-5% to now over 57%, The NAV of whatever remains prices the ETF at 0.34 but that's basically a wild-ass-guess as RSX holds tracking stocks of Russian companies traded on the London Mercantile and trading of all of these are halted. There's a significant chance that RSX will be liquidated and you will get nothing. You can go to the managers website and subscribe for updates

Well, I'll synthetic short rsx , sold calls and bought puts.
On paper, did well, but for the last couple of days trading in rsx options is suspended, at Schwab.

So no idea what will happen.

Hopefully when the Russian market opens, it will trade again and hopefully the Russian market doesn't go up immediately.

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**rod9301** · 03-12-2022, 12:43 AM

Originally Posted by MTT

Thanks for sharing that. So it moved pretty quickly.

Are there people out there who would have jumped all over Russian stock thinking it would make a profit?

Will your share disappear? Or is it possible for it to recover at some point in the future?

Can you wipe out a countries wealth? Rather than just hold it for a time

The issue is not if Russia recovers, which it will.
The problem is that the etf could liquidate, in which case you get nothing, while the underlying securities will go up.

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**rod9301** · 03-12-2022, 12:45 AM

Originally Posted by rod9301

Well, I'll synthetic short rsx , sold calls and bought puts.
On paper, did well, but for the last couple of days trading in rsx options is suspended, at Schwab.

So no idea what will happen.

Hopefully when the Russian market opens, it will trade again and hopefully the Russian market doesn't go up immediately.

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Sorry, i meant to say that i am standing l synthetic short, not i will

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**rod9301** · 03-12-2022, 02:31 AM

One more correction, I'm synthetic short rsx

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**skibrd** · 03-12-2022, 05:06 AM

Thanks LeeLau

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**LeeLau** · 03-12-2022, 10:17 AM

Originally Posted by rod9301

One more correction, I'm synthetic short rsx

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WSB was very long calls and puts. Here's a good old fashioned RSX r/wallstreetbets trapped put buyers thread.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetb...m_source=share

Some remember when the inverse ViX ETNS went from 140 to 20 then were delisted crushing retail traders

**MultiVerse** · 03-12-2022, 11:02 AM

Originally Posted by MTT

I’m not going to cash out at a loss. It always comes back some day?

It always comes back but it can take a long time. Given enough time, sometimes it takes decades, stocks outperform bonds. When Japanese stocks crashed from all time highs in the 80s, for example, it took 30yrs to recover but eventually Japanese stocks outperformed. After the dot-com crash in the early aughts it took nearly fifteen years for the NASDAQ (the Nasdaq Composite index) to recover.

**rod9301** · 03-12-2022, 11:05 AM

Originally Posted by MultiVerse

It always comes back but it can take a long time. Given enough time, sometimes it takes decades, stocks outperform bonds. When Japanese stocks crashed from all time highs in the 80s, for example, it took 30yrs to recover but eventually Japanese stocks outperformed. After the dot-com crash in the early aughts it took nearly fifteen years for the NASDAQ (the Nasdaq Composite index) to recover.

Right, but the valuations were insane.
Russia's valuations are going to be very low, do it could come back a lot sooner.

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**4matic** · 03-12-2022, 02:01 PM

Originally Posted by rod9301

Right, but the valuations were insane.
Russia's valuations are going to be very low, do it could come back a lot sooner.

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If something drops 90% it would take a 900% gain to break even.

**4matic** · 03-12-2022, 06:35 PM

HYG and JNK have breaking down. There was a lot of talk about low default rates would support the high yield market.

I've been waiting almost two years for an entry point in credit.

**LeeLau** · 03-12-2022, 07:12 PM

6 hr 18 min ago

Moscow Stock Exchange will not resume trading next week, Russian Central Bank says

per CNN on the MOEX

**summit** · 03-12-2022, 07:20 PM

How long can that go on?

**4matic** · 03-12-2022, 07:27 PM

How does it reopen? Perhaps a fixed liquidation value for the outstanding shares or they all become state entities and never reopen. Maybe the RCB takes the buy side for all sellers?

**NWFlow** · 03-14-2022, 08:39 AM

Wow BABA haha.

In general I'm losing faith in shorter term returns in 'emerging markets'

**4matic** · 03-14-2022, 09:46 AM

EM redemptions due to Russia being closed is forcing selling in most liquid EM securities.

Fresh highs in interest rates across the curve. 30y finally a fresh 52 week high yield.

**summit** · 03-14-2022, 12:20 PM

I sold all my EM and most of my other internationals. This week is gonna be bumpy.

**Kevo** · 03-14-2022, 12:49 PM

Last week I talked about how the federal reserve buying bonds has fucked up the real estate market.

Today, I'd like to share how insanely low interest rates, excess liquidity and the federal reserve buying equities has caused moral hazards in M+A.

My previous company was bought by its primary competitor last year for the purpose of killing it to eliminate competition.

My company- profitable, privately held ~300 people worldwide.

Competitor- public. ~200 people worldwide. At one point had a $5 billion plus valuation while losing money. They were never profitable, and always tried to compete by undercutting our prices while pushing shitty tech. I pitched against them for years.

Competitor took a 1 billion dollar cash loan from Goldman Sachs and added in 500MM dollar stock to purchase my company.

Excess liquidity in the market allowed a shitty company to have an insane valuation and buy a better, profitable company for sake of eliminating competition. Now after merging and finding "efficiencies" by laying off employees, the new merged company is struggling to pay off the Goldman loan and the stock is down more than 80%. As it stands today, competitor is now worth less that they paid for my company 13 months ago.

The merger should never have been allowed to go through. The US financial system is a joke. Antitrust enforcement is a joke. Financial regulators are captured. Goldman packaged the loan and sold it to the next sucker down the road, probably a public employees pension.