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  1. #11151
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    Of course. But the entire developed world economy just putting the brakes on as suddenly as this? C'mon. This is ridiculous. Like I said, in order to cover your ass for this, you'd never make any money. Why bother?

  2. #11152
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    it worked for the folks at wimbledon....


    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...on/5123987002/














    profit.

  3. #11153
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Of course. But the entire developed world economy just putting the brakes on as suddenly as this? C'mon. This is ridiculous. Like I said, in order to cover your ass for this, you'd never make any money. Why bother?
    Because you'd make more money by not losing as much. The math works out. Probability times cost if (when) it happens gives you a value. Build a strategy to mitigate the risk based on that and over time you will profit from it if you're right about probability and cost. Poker players do it constantly. People made money in '08. Treasuries and chill made money in '20. Spending $50k each to put up every traveler from China since January for 3 weeks would have cost less than half of a percent of present costs. Low probability events happen all the time, see: Slide zone.

  4. #11154
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    Oh, so, bullshit. You have no solution.

  5. #11155
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Ok, since you persist, how would you manage a risk like this, an event that more than one Nobel winner in economics has said that there is no, zero, model for in history?
    You put it all into TSLA. I just heard they're planning a Tom Cruise space movie. Stock is like a goddamn money tree.
    "timberridge is terminally vapid" -- a fortune cookie in Yueyang

  6. #11156
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Oh, so, bullshit. You have no solution.
    Does "treasuries and chill" go over your head? Honestly, the "we're all too stupid to take any action and anyone who isn't as stupid as me is even stupider than me" handwaving routine is played. But you've hit the zeitgeist dead center with it, so kudos for that, I guess.

  7. #11157
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    Does "treasuries and chill" go over your head? Honestly, the "we're all too stupid to take any action and anyone who isn't as stupid as me is even stupider than me" handwaving routine is played. But you've hit the zeitgeist dead center with it, so kudos for that, I guess.
    There’s a gaping chasm between “everyone’s too stupid” and “here’s my effective risk management model for a global pandemic”. The latter is just as fucking stupid as the former.

    I don’t think either are good ways to make money.

  8. #11158
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    There’s a gaping chasm between “everyone’s too stupid” and “here’s my effective risk management model for a global pandemic”
    Yep. And there's a similar size chasm between asking how to manage the risk to one portfolio and asking for an effective risk management model for a global pandemic. The failures are similar, too: individuals who don't seek the former make up a society that doesn't ask for the latter.

    I don’t think either are good ways to make money.
    That's where you're wrong. Avoiding losses is absolutely key to making money and quantitatively managing risks (both upside and downside) is the path. On the global scale, the epic failure to do this over the last 3 years is a political discussion but the steps along the way and the costs and their probability of effective mitigation are actually pretty straightforward if you can accept some estimation. I've typed out more than anyone wants to read on that in the rat flu thread already.

  9. #11159
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    Yep. And there's a similar size chasm between asking how to manage the risk to one portfolio and asking for an effective risk management model for a global pandemic. The failures are similar, too: individuals who don't seek the former make up a society that doesn't ask for the latter.
    there comes a point when talking to engineers is a waste of time. “Don’t lose money is the key to making money” is such stunning insight.

  10. #11160
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    there comes a point when talking to engineers is a waste of time.
    Right. Happens quick, in fact. True of most experts, too. What you decide to do when that point is reached can be quite pivotal.

  11. #11161
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    Right. Happens quick, in fact. True of most experts, too. What you decide to do when that point is reached can be quite pivotal.
    I wasn’t calling you anywhere near an expert.

  12. #11162
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    I wasn’t calling you anywhere near an expert.
    Nor was I claiming to offer any stunning insight. If you think a stunning insight is needed in this situation you haven't been paying attention.

  13. #11163
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    Nor was I claiming to offer any stunning insight. If you think a stunning insight is needed in this situation you haven't been paying attention.
    no, you were just frotting with Benny, now me.

  14. #11164
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post


    I've typed out more than anyone wants to read.
    Yes, you have.

  15. #11165
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Yes, you have.
    Look at that common ground. Never believe em when they say the TRG is hopeless.

  16. #11166
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    Arguing with Bunny is pointless, he just gets to a point where he has nothing else to offer and just keeps saying "Nuh uh" to everything you say. You might as well just return with "Uh huh" and save yourself the brain damage.

  17. #11167
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    Oh, ok, well, how would you safely invest for an event like this while still, at least, beating inflation, smart guy?

  18. #11168
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Oh, ok, well, how would you safely invest for an event like this while still, at least, beating inflation, smart guy?
    https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual.../profile/VSMGX

    If you expect that your long term portfolio will never ever see any drops, then you should not invest in the stock market. Perhaps brostoywhatever will recommend that you put it all in bitcoin.
    Quote Originally Posted by powder11 View Post
    if you have to resort to taking advice from the nitwits on this forum, then you're doomed.

  19. #11169
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    Sell drugs.
    Live Free or Die

  20. #11170
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    Yeah, at my age, asset preservation is high priority. Glad and lucky I did some profit taking via rebalancing a couple times a year starting in 2017, thus starting 2020 with a good chunk of cash, CDs and treasuries.

    I've never before been a market timer, but bought some equity positions during the dip in mid- to late March, took some profits in the past week by selling most of those positions, currently down < 2% since Jan. 1, i.e., doing better than most. Sitting on lots of cash. I figure there will be plenty of buy-in opportunity dips in the next 12 months.

    My heart aches for most of my small biz clients and friends, who face very uncertain futures.

  21. #11171
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    We're lucky inflation has been so low, and it looks like it will stay low for years.

  22. #11172
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Oh, ok, well, how would you safely invest for an event like this while still, at least, beating inflation, smart guy?
    Check out this asset allocation.

    It has historically way outperformed inflation and has lower volatility. There is interest rate risk though.

  23. #11173
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    Sell drugs.
    So, BMY, PFE, MRK, etc?
    "timberridge is terminally vapid" -- a fortune cookie in Yueyang

  24. #11174
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    Yeah, notwithstanding Fed printing money go brrrrrr, there will be post-Covid 19 augmentation of deflationary pressures that have been there for awhile (e.g., race-to-the-bottom global cheap labor). Flip side of low inflation is safe fixed income interest rates totally suck.

  25. #11175
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    Yeah sure, or old school and just sell dope. Either works.
    Live Free or Die

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