Is the stock market going to tank?

[SkiCougar]

^^^ those kind of swings are typical of a bear market, not a bull market. still early but I'd put money on 2200 s and p over 3000 s and p now.

powell better blow some good smoke up the mkts ass Friday.

[4matic]

Prior to 2016 the monthly range was often 10% plus. Bull market. 1500 points is only 6%.

[406]

Assuming the trade war keeps escalating, last step is China stops buying t-bills and rates increase exponentially, institutional investors sell stocks for t-bills at ~5%???...still lot more money in bond market than stocks. Should be interesting.

[Brock Landers]

Couple things...China wouldn't stop buying because that's how they manipulate their currency.

But if they did, and short term rates rose a bit...how is that any different than what's happened over the last year? Fed raises short rates and the 10/30 year range bound.

Anyway, jobs number came out this morning a bit light (some would say that's an understatement) but I think weather had a bit of an impact. Retail and construction hiring were weak. However the previous month was revised up a bit.
Bottom line...not inflationary. Still long equity.

[4matic]

China is dealing directly with the Saudis and developing a petroyuan. If they redirect 10% of their USD sovereign wealth to other investments it might cause some trouble. Maybe it’s already happening and Trump is trying to deflect blame.

[digitaldeath]

China is dealing directly with the Saudis and developing a petroyuan. If they redirect 10% of their USD sovereign wealth to other investments it might cause some trouble. Maybe it’s already happening and Trump is trying to deflect blame.

be cool if we turned on the house of saud and directed ISIS towards Ridyah

[Brock Landers]

Maybe it's already happening and it's a complete non factor.

What trump is doing isn't ground breaking. China is well known to make it very difficult to sell things there. They're assholes. I think the problem people have is with the method trump is using. A bit more...direct?? than we are accustomed to. China has a limited internal economy. It's growing but they rely heavily on exports. And farming. So at the end of the day, they either develop an autonomous economy in the next couple months, they play the game w the US, or they get the shovels ready.

[4matic]

There’s only been a few time market has been down three months in a row since 09. Down for feb March April right now.

Sitting right on the 200 day for the 4th time.

[dunfree]

China has a limited internal economy. It's growing but they rely heavily on exports. And farming. So at the end of the day, they either develop an autonomous economy in the next couple months, they play the game w the US, or they get the shovels ready.

Or they play the game with other people - like they've been doing and working on for decades. Like most Trump things unless you are a true-believer in Trump most of his actions look like own goals. This tradewar is an own goal.

[Cono Este]

Let’s stop blaming everyone else.

Never before have we been so deeply in debt, and the cost is rising.


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[SumJongGuy]

Let’s stop blaming everyone else.

Never before have we been so deeply in debt, and the cost is rising.


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Just kick that can down the road another 4-8 years as always..

[Cono Este]

Trump made his name managing highly leveraged corporations into the ground.

As they said in Lawrence of Arabia.

“It was written”.


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[4matic]

No serious damage to the charts today other than close to a pivot price.

[Bromontana]

Wild intraday volatility, even for the new vix era.

[iceman]

It's kinda wut-the-fuck-ever for me. Can't even figure out a place from which I could start to try to figure it out. But for some reason I think 4matic is wrong, I'm staying in. One of us will be happy.

[SkiCougar]

It's kinda wut-the-fuck-ever for me. Can't even figure out a place from which I could start to try to figure it out. But for some reason I think 4matic is wrong, I'm staying in. One of us will be happy.

ok, will make it easy for you.

staying above the 50 day is sure sign of a bull market, heading below the 200 is a bear trend.

we are right on the 200 moving day average, approx. 2600 s and p. if we drop below that and stay below, it's going much lower; kass says 2200 and he's pretty good.

I've been going to cash and increasing shorts with the down trends because trump's trade war, the fed increasing rates and extracting liquidity are all bad for the mkt; those gotta reverse to go for new highs imo.

[Benny Profane]

Let’s stop blaming everyone else.

Never before have we been so deeply in debt, and the cost is rising.


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What cost? Interest rates are still jack. I remember, young man, when that shit hit the fan in the very early eighties with, what was it, a 19% prime at the peak? 19 fucking percent. This aint shit, and won't be shit, as long as there are more people who want to work in the world then there are jobs. Add in the robots, and, we're fine. As long as you're not working. And stay away from stupid shit like Bitcoin.

That said, we're stuck with a fucking madman and total fuckup as President, and, he's doing a pretty good fucking job of crashing what is a delicate world economy at the moment. Fucking asshole.

[4matic]

I messed this post up..

2200 is simply a pullback to the breakout on the monthly chart. No big deal.

Forward returns will go back to low single digits in equity. Isn’t that what Bogle says?

[Benny Profane]

Listen, motherfucker, you of all fucking people should watch yourself with that "Selfish boomer" shit. Like you're spending all this time and energy in both fake and real trading so that you can just give all that money away?

[iceman]

cliffhanger

[4matic]

Listen, motherfucker, you of all fucking people should watch yourself with that "Selfish boomer" shit. Like you're spending all this time and energy in both fake and real trading so that you can just give all that money away?

I don’t trade. I make long term allocation decisions on my own. I’ve been largely out of stocks since May of last year. Sold the rest in January

Getting a bit nervous and testy aren’t we?

Never get emotional about stock Benny.

[4matic]

Trump said stocks were up 40% and can take some heat. No big deal.

[Benny Profane]

Don't bullshit us. I should have quoted your shit before you changed it. Up to here with blaming boomers for the shit. Whiny little bitches. Like it was easy for us. Like, you know, a 19% or so prime. Yeah, that was sweet.

And I'm pissed because this stupid motherfucker is fucking up the world economy single handed. Stupid piece of shit. Him and the Brexiteers. What the fuck is wrong with them? There's no defense.

[4matic]

Don't bullshit us. I should have quoted your shit before you changed it. Up to here with blaming boomers for the shit. Whiny little bitches. Like it was easy for us. Like, you know, a 19% or so prime. Yeah, that was sweet.

And I'm pissed because this stupid motherfucker is fucking up the world economy single handed. Stupid piece of shit. Him and the Brexiteers. What the fuck is wrong with them? There's no defense.

I’ll rewrite it for you.

A 2.5% Libor rate is attractive to selfish boomers seeking yield in stocks vs 5% weekly equity swings.
Iceman is wobbling.

What do you “need” from equity? What’s the risk reward right here? I’d say it’s almost neutral. 10% up or down.

[SumJongGuy]

Next week at this rate..