Is the stock market going to tank?

[Cono Este]

Lots of crazy talk going on. People panic buying purell, canceling trips.

Imagine, just imagine the hit this economy will take if in 4 weeks we still have a growing problem.

If the containers from China stop moving?




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[kokomas]

Lots of crazy talk going on. People panic buying purell, canceling trips.

Imagine, just imagine the hit this economy will take if in 4 weeks we still have a growing problem.

If the containers from China stop moving?




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I don't think my view is extreme that this is likely the case. The thing that's different is that China went on lockdown and made a ton of policy and personal actions. Economic hit was front loaded and health benefits appears to have been strong. I think the US has the opposite; very few policy or personal actions ( at least the people I talk to) and thus the health impact may be worse.

Who knows. But what you ponder is my base case, I think

[Cono Este]

I don't think my view is extreme that this is likely the case. The thing that's different is that China went on lockdown and made a ton of policy and personal actions. Economic hit was front loaded and health benefits appears to have been strong. I think the US has the opposite; very few policy or personal actions ( at least the people I talk to) and thus the health impact may be worse.

Who knows. But what you ponder is my base case, I think

Everyone in China does not have an AR or AK either.


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[Meathelmet]

That Northern Italy lockdown...oh man.
Interesting what kind of mayhem will ensue come Monday morning.

[Benny Profane]

40%

[Micol]

more ports
https://www.portandterminal.com/watc...nds-to-a-halt/

[SkiCougar]

more ports
https://www.portandterminal.com/watc...nds-to-a-halt/

related: https://in.news.yahoo.com/global-air...112945438.html

"Global air cargo demand dips by 3.3 pc in January: IATA"

world fed banks trying to stay in front of this is like LA rams running back todd gurley trying to stop an oncoming train.

[Benny Profane]

https://www.project-syndicate.org/co...rogoff-2020-03

[Ted Striker]

How is the airline industry taking this from your perspective?

I think it's too soon to tell. And the fact that fuel just got cheaper should soften the blow.

But if a company's primary business is overseas like Cathay, Qantas, etc, their exposure is huge, and this is already impacting their bottom lines. North/South American, and Euro carriers with a mix of domestic and short haul international will fare better.

The thing with 9/11 and then SARS was that it was a 1-2 punch that the industry was completely unprepared for. And their books weren't all that good beforehand so there wasn't much wiggle room left. This time the big airlines are in relatively good financial shape (so far). That said, I really don't think the other shoe has dropped yet.

[Stu Gotz]

Well the energy market is going to tank more
https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/ne...173434104.html

Pros: cheaper gas, consumers have more disposable income to spend on toilet paper and face masks.

Cons: entire shale industry goes bankrupt.

[Brock Landers]

Pros: cheaper gas, consumers have more disposable income to spend on toilet paper and face masks.

Cons: entire shale industry goes bankrupt.

We’ve run out of face masks

[Benny Profane]

Pros: cheaper gas, consumers have more disposable income to spend on toilet paper and face masks.

Cons: entire shale industry goes bankrupt.

Shale going down is a big domino crash.

[Cono Este]

I think it fair to expect an over sold condition before buying. Margin selling. People getting the hook.

This virus shit ain’t going to clear up over night.

2018 lows is reasonable.

Print it. TDS551 out


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[kokomas]

It's on https://twitter.com/OilSheppard/stat...721510402?s=20

[Cono Este]

It's on https://twitter.com/OilSheppard/stat...721510402?s=20

That’s nuts man. Going to Really hurt domestic oil producers and shale.

Saudis cost is like $10 a barrel.


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[rideit]

Time to short?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/dow-...us-stress.html

[kokomas]

Oil is a black hole here. I don't have to have an opinion anymore thank heavens. Taking incremental shale production off helps but not right away. Last time we got down to mid 20's. But who is to say. Trying to prop up commodity prices has always been a fools folly. Depends on MBS and Putin now

[Stu Gotz]

There are some folks who are going to get tapped out by the margin clerks this week.

[4matic]

I bought oil stocks a day early. lol. So small it doesn’t matter. Maybe double up tomorrow. This will be good for the big companies long term. Dow futures down 1100.

[Benny Profane]

There are some folks who are going to get tapped out by the margin clerks this week.

Yup.

[Steve Lavigne]

Will probably scalp a short covering rally on oil equities tomorrow morning at the open.

[Steve Lavigne]

I bought oil stocks a day early. lol. So small it doesn’t matter. Maybe double up tomorrow. This will be good for the big companies long term. Dow futures down 1100.

Averaging down often works...

[Brock Landers]

Tomorrow’s going to be funnnnn.

[Toadman]

I seem to recall that I asked about deflation earlier in this thread. Seems to be more of a probability now.

[rideit]

2% mortgage baby, hit me!