Is the stock market going to tank?

**mcsquared** · 05-13-2020, 10:10 AM

Well things are starting to get interesting again. Make down limits great again!

**Benny Profane** · 05-13-2020, 10:14 AM

Bout time.

**Timberridge** · 05-13-2020, 10:31 AM

Everyone's been waiting for the retest. If this is the start, let's see who here has the cajones to call it and push their chips in when we get there.

**Benny Profane** · 05-13-2020, 10:42 AM

Tough one. I blinked the last time, and missed it. It wasn't as though we were all busy.

**Timberridge** · 05-13-2020, 10:47 AM

I'm confident we can figure it out this time. First we need guidance on whether this is the start of the tide going back out or just another breaking wave.

**mcsquared** · 05-13-2020, 10:49 AM

You know you can make money on the way down too, right? There are short ETF's, etc. You can be invested at any time.

**Timberridge** · 05-13-2020, 10:50 AM

I did not know that.

So you're calling the top here?

**IVplay** · 05-13-2020, 10:59 AM

I bought two tranches of SPXU (3x s&p inverse) above 2900. Sold one just after the Tepper CNBC interview for a nice gain. Holding onto the other for the next pullback into the 2700s - can’t get too greedy with the inverse since you are already up when the market is down.

Timing the bottom is not a smart move. Have your list of companies that you like regardless, and dollar cost average into them. Opened my position in MSFT today which I believe is provably the best company out there. No reason to buy green this year.

**mcsquared** · 05-13-2020, 11:09 AM

Originally Posted by Timberridge

I did not know that.

So you're calling the top here?

I have been averaging into a short etf (SDS) and long UVXY (long VIX) for a few weeks.

**geo039** · 05-13-2020, 11:18 AM

Long CAT at below 95?

**mcsquared** · 05-13-2020, 11:40 AM

What is your thesis for an increase in purchases of construction equipment?

**Mazderati** · 05-13-2020, 11:46 AM

CAT parts and service are notoriously expensive. Would be interesting to break down sales vs parts/service as they relate to bottom line. Same for DE.

**ncskier** · 05-13-2020, 02:23 PM

Originally Posted by Timberridge

I did not know that.

So you're calling the top here?

As a perceived perma bear like Bennie. I'm going to call no retest of March lows but 10-15% down move by end of May.
Or not. What do I know. I thought we'd blow through 18k on the dow and it was a hard reversal.
For all I know the fed may step in tomorrow and start buying mutual funds and commons shares.

I actually felt like the announcement of LA and their colleges going virtual skewed my opinion. Now no NCAA football is becoming real again and lots tourists if you were even entertaining visiting are not going to. Not that its the end all be all, just indicative of a potentially larger trend to scare the investing population that things are not going to resume in a V shape

**4matic** · 05-13-2020, 04:14 PM

PCI Down 7% today. It’s pimco leveraged credit. Risky but if you’re lucky it’s a chance to catch a good yield. A wave down and there will be opportunity in high dividend and high yield.

**Benny Profane** · 05-13-2020, 04:52 PM

Originally Posted by ncskier

As a perceived perma bear like Bennie. I'm going to call no retest of March lows but 10-15% down move by end of May.
Or not. What do I know. I thought we'd blow through 18k on the dow and it was a hard reversal.
For all I know the fed may step in tomorrow and start buying mutual funds and commons shares.

I actually felt like the announcement of LA and their colleges going virtual skewed my opinion. Now no NCAA football is becoming real again and lots tourists if you were even entertaining visiting are not going to. Not that its the end all be all, just indicative of a potentially larger trend to scare the investing population that things are not going to resume in a V shape

I posted the chart of 29 and after to WW2 or so, so I'm too lazy to get it. It's a real lesson in the psychology of WS gambling, although I'll bet that a ton of insider trading was powering the downslope trend, since laws against such still were forming. Joe Kennedy took his bootlegging capital and made real money making friends on WS. But, anyway, watch the gains on the way down on that chart. Plenty of money to be made, especially if you came out of the first drop healthy.

Powell didn't send a signal today that he was fueling this party anymore. He basically said, ball in legislative court, I've done my thing.

As for sports, a massive international entertainment industry, the best I've heard is, when you turn on the TV and see Wrigley or Fenway or choose your game stadium full and cheering, it's over . That's a long way off.

**ncskier** · 05-13-2020, 07:43 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

I posted the chart of 29 and after to WW2 or so, so I'm too lazy to get it. It's a real lesson in the psychology of WS gambling, although I'll bet that a ton of insider trading was powering the downslope trend, since laws against such still were forming. Joe Kennedy took his bootlegging capital and made real money making friends on WS. But, anyway, watch the gains on the way down on that chart. Plenty of money to be made, especially if you came out of the first drop healthy.

Powell didn't send a signal today that he was fueling this party anymore. He basically said, ball in legislative court, I've done my thing.

As for sports, a massive international entertainment industry, the best I've heard is, when you turn on the TV and see Wrigley or Fenway or choose your game stadium full and cheering, it's over . That's a long way off.

Agreed. I came out of first drop up a bunch . I sold almost all equities 2/24. Different situation for me since I had the benefit of large capital loss carry forward to exhaust so no tax hit. Then rolled some on spy triple etf short fund.
Keep in mind I was a strictly buy and hold for 20 plus years in index funds. So against my nature but I really felt this time was different.
Now I don’t trust this market at all.
I bought a house with some profit at the beach and my kid other kid a tacoma. Yes I shouldn’t complain.
My plan is 12-15 month dca balance, maybe miss some gains and go fish.
It feels so disjointed and removed from fundamentals.
What do I know. I just don’t like playing in this sandbox anymore.

**IVplay** · 05-13-2020, 08:53 PM

Going to make a big move on Boingo one more leg down. Think they’re perfectly positioned to benefit from the main demerit of 5g - that it struggles indoors. Hasn’t received the hype/stock pump of any other 5g associated stocks and already has a deal inked with Verizon.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.thev...lution-phoenix

**The Reverend Floater** · 05-13-2020, 09:07 PM

OKTA for the continued win. They're not going to go out of favor anytime soon.

**VTeton** · 05-14-2020, 06:22 AM

Originally Posted by huckbucket

Just not convinced of the portion in bold. High UE, delays in getting UE funds, people spooked from the pandemic, slow rollout of consumer options, closing of brick and morter, etc. UE funding gets you whole to around $35K if my math is right which is great for lots of Americans, but UE among college edumacated is still around 8% which leaves a lot of those people uncovered. I plead to having a Benny moment.

My liberal state is paying the $1,425 a week for UE for the 13 weeks. Anyone collecting that # should be able to pay their mortgage. Maybe they aren't cause they don't have too... maybe they are day trading it...

**Cono Este** · 05-14-2020, 06:43 AM

This country is going broke faster than a divorcee off her alimony.

Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

**Timberridge** · 05-14-2020, 07:56 AM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

This country is going broke faster than a divorcee off her alimony.

Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

But the divorcee can't leave a cookie jar full of iou's.

The gov't is trying to stay in this weird goldilocks zone between the low interest rates and their desire to fund via the long end of the curve. They blinked bringing back the 20 yr since people weren't biting on the 30 yr anymore. Something's gonna snap at some point.

**Benny Profane** · 05-14-2020, 08:11 AM

You're not getting it. We're living through a grand experiment. Modern monetary theory 1.0. Just print money. Unfortunately the inflationistas and debt moaners have started to whine the past few weeks. Didn't we learn anything in '08?

**Timberridge** · 05-14-2020, 08:38 AM

Originally Posted by the propagandist formerly monikered brostoyevski

Largest single buyer of USTs is the Fed on behalf of the Treasury. So the bond market can't snap if it's being monetized by the brrrrr macheen.

That's only part of it. I'm talking about the foreigners and pension funds, etc., half of which are broke.

**mcsquared** · 05-14-2020, 08:57 AM

Originally Posted by Timberridge

That's only part of it. I'm talking about the foreigners and pension funds, etc., half of which are broke.

But those USTs are have gained in value and are primed to explode even higher according to some. So they aren't broke. Or they are, which is it?

**MultiVerse** · 05-14-2020, 09:02 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

You're not getting it. We're living through a grand experiment. Modern monetary theory 1.0. Just print money. Unfortunately the inflationistas and debt moaners have started to whine the past few weeks. Didn't we learn anything in '08?

Yeah, the lesson from '08 was that money was too tight.

"Restrictive monetary policy rather than the deleveraging in financial markets that had begun in August 2007 offers a more direct explanation of the intensification of the recession that began in the summer of 2008. By then, U.S. financial markets were reasonably calm. The intensification of the recession began before the financial turmoil that followed the September 15, 2008, Lehman bankruptcy. Although from mid-2007 through mid-December 2008, financial institutions reported losses of $1 trillion dollars, they also raised $930 billion in capital–$346 billion from governments and $585 billion from the private sector"

In other words, the “audit the Fed” gold bug money machine QE brrrrr hyperinflation narrative is wrong. The Fed did too little, not too much.

Once again the bigger 2020 risk is deflation, not inflation. Seeing something like 2% inflation by '21-22 would be a good thing and the Fed should do whatever it takes to make that happen.

And FWIW MMT is a bullshit economic model, not a monetary policy.

The bottom line is the Fed can't fix any of our problems because peoples’ perceptions of safety means only saving lives will save the economy. What the Fed can do is inject excess cash into the economy which people will then spend when it's safe to do so.

https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/...df/hetzel2.pdf