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  1. #15951
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    much, aren’t you being political? Check out inflation globally. Its up most everywhere. Is that the fed printing money?
    Most central banks printed money. And the fiscal stimulus was inflationary. That's the point of stimulus. But it was certainly better than the alternative.

  2. #15952
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    Jun 2020
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    Hereís my analogy for the Fed/Monetary Policy:

    What theyíre doing is like driving a car on a winding, rolling mountain road where you canít see very far ahead. Also, the car is short on power, has undersized brakes, and when you try to accelerate or brake thereís a 15 second delay between your input and when the car starts responding.

    In this analogy, when Covid hits itís like coming around a bend and seeing that youíre facing a really steep hill, so you press the throttle to the floor.

    Then your passenger flips the nitrous switch (stimulus bills) because the worst thing that could happen would be to come to a crawl/stall out. So youíre cruising along pretty good now, but it turns out you were actually near the top of the hill and youíve unexpectedly come upon a flatter section of road with the nitrous still engaged, so youíre driving much faster than desired (high inflation).

    The goal now is to apply the brakes to slow the car back down to a comfortable speed. Itís possible that the Fed jumps on the brakes too hard (reversing QE and/or increasing interest rates too quickly) and slows the car down too much (recession), or maybe they donít apply the brakes hard enough to get down to a comfortable speed (continued inflation).

    Also keep in mind that while theyíre trying to bring the car down to a comfortable speed, they still canít see what hills or valleys may lie ahead.

    I donít personally think a recession or continued high inflation is in any way Ďinevitableí at this point, but either one is certainly possible.

  3. #15953
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoooR View Post
    Most central banks printed money. And the fiscal stimulus was inflationary. That's the point of stimulus. But it was certainly better than the alternative.
    so, you think it would be better to starve like the poor plebes in china you were bitching about last month. Such myopia. Covid response - health/social control, fiscal policy, and monetary policy- were hugely different around the world!

    never mind, just grind that dullard axe and buy max bits. Because that worthless trash has nothing to do with inflationary worthless funny money

  4. #15954
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    Dec 2010
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    Little Observational Awareness here to impart on the dynamics of global markets. The perspective of your home currency investment will make all the difference in the world.

    Here is the price of gold over the last year in USD, EURO, YEN, Turkish Lira.

    They all are 1 year returns on gold and all have very different outcomes. Understanding currency is important today.

    Strong Dollar = Recession



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  5. #15955
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    Dec 2005
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    much, arenít you being political? Check out inflation globally. Its up most everywhere. Is that the fed printing money? Or China and itís now certifiably insane zero Covid policy fucking up supply in the worlds factory? Or a huge global shift from services to consumption thatís now being reversed, slowly? Or all of it?

    Not disagreeing that lots of money went into trash and propped up trash (crypto, the spac boom, Tesla) just that itís not even or systemic. And tired of hearing people with $70k bought in pandemic pickups bitching about $4 gas
    Dude. I donít care about politics and the mkt. the two are not tied for me. Iím not an investor either, Iím a risk manager, derivatives dork. I look at implied volatilities, skew, shit I spent yrs learning.

    If I sound bearish, itís because I always am. Thatís how I was taught to think.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  6. #15956
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    so, you think it would be better to starve like the poor plebes in china you were bitching about last month. Such myopia. Covid response - health/social control, fiscal policy, and monetary policy- were hugely different around the world!

    never mind, just grind that dullard axe and buy max bits. Because that worthless trash has nothing to do with inflationary worthless funny money
    You have me confused with someone else. I don't own any bitcoin. I prefer assets that generate cash flow. I don't even know what your point is? That all the stimulus wasn't inflationary? If you're trying to convince me it was worth it, well that I agree with. Some inflation is certailly preferable to millions of people out of work and hundreds of thousands of shuttered buisnesses. Even if a lot of those buisness owners used their PPP "loan" to push up asset prices.

  7. #15957
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    Quote Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong View Post
    Here’s my analogy for the Fed/Monetary Policy:
    That was awesome, thanks for taking the time to post it.
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  8. #15958
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    Jun 2020
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    Quote Originally Posted by shera View Post
    That was awesome, thanks for taking the time to post it.
    Thanks. Glad you appreciated it.

    An additional thought about the current situation:

    I think there are two things that are going to make it difficult to pull off a smooth landing -

    First, using my analogy, weíre currently going way faster than desired, like 50 mph over our desired speed, so itís difficult to judge exactly what amount of Ďbrakingí is going to be required and not overshoot/undershoot the target. Would be much easier to estimate if we were only 5 mph over our desired speed.

    Second, while we canít see too far down the road at any given time, we can look out the window and gauge the terrain weíre in. And the terrain weíre in right now certainly doesnít look smooth, so who knows what ups and downs are going to lie ahead as the Fed tries to gently bring the economy back to itís desired speed.

  9. #15959
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    I know the fed has a tough row to hoe, but Powell seems determined to do his best. I am guessing end of quarter we will officially have a recession, but hopefully can recover reasonably fast.
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  10. #15960
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    Jan 2012
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    Juneau
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    The role that the fiscal stimulus has had with respect to inflation is a good question. Many countries around the globe are experiencing high inflation, and many of them provided much less stimulus. Good discussion here. What is most interesting, at least to me, is the divergent views on its nature (transient or long term), its causes, and its cures.

  11. #15961
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    Jun 2020
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    1,392
    Quote Originally Posted by dschane View Post
    The role that the fiscal stimulus has had with respect to inflation is a good question. Many countries around the globe are experiencing high inflation, and many of them provided much less stimulus. Good discussion here. What is most interesting, at least to me, is the divergent views on its nature (transient or long term), its causes, and its cures.
    If you want a nerd explanation of the theoretical aspect of it, Krugman wrote about it on his blog during the Great Recession:

    https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/20...9/is-lmentary/

  12. #15962
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    Jul 2005
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    Verdi NV
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    It’s been a rough couple weeks
    I bought a bit more yesterday hoping it has bottomed out
    Not as enthusiastic as last month
    Click image for larger version. 

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    Own your fail. ~Jer~

  13. #15963
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    Mar 2006
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    18,636
    Rates rolled over pretty well into support. HYG down on the day. That needs to show some strength.

  14. #15964
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    Dec 2020
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    Idaho
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    1,151
    Plain vanilla for me please. Bought some more APPL today in the YOLO account.

  15. #15965
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    Dec 2016
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    In a van... down by the river
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    9,805
    Is MTT still under the impression that NDAQ is an index play?

  16. #15966
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    Aug 2009
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    I bought little MSFT, NVDA, AAPL today.

  17. #15967
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
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    Behind the Zion Curtain
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    4,360
    Grabbed $31.03 in profits on options trades this week. All of them by selling calls on XOM on shares I was way up on. $31 ain’t shit, but it’s probably more than most are contributing to their future. That shit compounds, take control of your future.

    Make your lunch free…

    Edit to add: Also been adding AAPL, can’t see how it’s a bad buy below $140. Most price targets are North of $200. Long term buy and hold.

  18. #15968
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    Speaking of analogies, the one I have been running through my head - we had a BIG party and boozed it up waaaay too much. Now is the hangover, paying the price.

    I guess you have all seen Ray Dahlio's economic cycles video. That made things so clear for me. We just have to get through this contraction, reset.
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  19. #15969
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    Feb 2018
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    496
    Is this the one you are referring to ?

    https://www.youtube.com/results?sear...remy+grantham+

    YouTube dated 5/20/2022. Interview date 5/9/2022

    I was going to post this in thread "Where to invest right now" but since you brought it up.

    Kind of long, but lots of good stuff.
    'Cliff Note' - inflation

    [edited to add youtube and interview dates.]
    Last edited by Ski220; 05-21-2022 at 08:50 AM. Reason: viewer not working

  20. #15970
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    No, that one's new, I have it queued up, hope I can get to it. The OG is 8 years old, here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0

    It is very cool! Just watch 5 minutes, you will love it!
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  21. #15971
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    Mar 2006
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    18,636

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Dalio has consistently said that a real rate of return going forward will be difficult and requires a very broad diversification

    Good video. Really like both long term views.

    An optimistic view is that USA still has the aspiration for immigrants which can ease the labor and wage pressure from low birth rate but is negatively rejected by nationalist populism
    Last edited by 4matic; 05-21-2022 at 11:21 AM.

  22. #15972
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Dalio has consistently said that a real rate of return going forward will be difficult and requires a very broad diversification

    Good video. Really like both long term views.

    An optimistic view is that USA still has the aspiration for immigrants which can ease the labor and wage pressure from low birth rate but is negatively rejected by nationalist populism
    The only problem I can see with immigration right now is it could exacerbate the housing shortage. Otherwise I think it's ridiculous that it's not easier for people to come here and work. You shouldn't have to swim a river and hike through the desert just to fucking work. The War on Immigrants is no different than the War on Drugs, it basically results in the exact opposite outcome from what we really want, or should want.

  23. #15973
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    Well it does force illegal people to find their work on the black market, so the employers don't have to pay minimum wage, in California.

    As an immigrant with libertarian tendencies I am absolutely in favor of open borders, and open trade.
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  24. #15974
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    on the banks of Fish Creek
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    agreed.

  25. #15975
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    I watch that Canada immigration show when Iím drinking, and between that and the UK one where they card immigrants on the street, Iíve decided we are way lenient.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

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