Is the stock market going to tank?

[dunfree]

Lot of people wanting bad news.

[Cono Este]

I don’t make calls in here. Except for the covid sell off, that was too good not to brag.

It’s about prudence and risk management

I’ve never been paid to give advice nor do I want to.


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[NakedShorts]

Nobody really trusts Wall Street do they?
They shouldn't ...because to the big firms our savings is a game and they want them for themselves.



This is real and many are playing with real $.

[Bunion 2020]

Do I need to go quote you 10 pages back, or quote myself the last 10yrs?

I take this shit seriously, it’s not politics, and I think my calls speak to my experience as a professional who was trained by plank members of major exchanges. I’m no genius, im no Lee lau, in fact I consider myself just above average, but they’re is no Poly ass in me when I know people are playing with their savings.

I never had a losing month in my career. Couple months I didn’t make expenses, but not bad.


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Not my point.

Warren Buffett, Jimmy Buffet, Breakfast Buffet it doesn't matter.

Yeah you have your opinions but the best minds in investing and fiscal policy are all guessing.

Yeah it looks like a recession may be coming, anyone with a smidgen of gray matter can see that. Given past market performance, it would take brass balls the size of Church Bells to sell and go to cash right now with the current losses baked in.

[Cono Este]

Lot of people wanting bad news.

Dude, when it comes to money, you’ve got to be A political.

I’ve said it many times before, anything that comes is the result of the last 6-7 presidents. Printing money, giving away money.

I’m no economist, but sooner or later a broken clock is right once in a day.


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[Cono Este]

Not my point.

Warren Buffett, Jimmy Buffet, Breakfast Buffet it doesn't matter.

Yeah you have your opinions but the best minds in investing and fiscal policy are all guessing.

Yeah it looks like a recession may be coming, anyone with a smidgen of gray matter can see that. Given past market performance, it would take brass balls the size of Church Bells to sell and go to cash right now with the current losses baked in.

No way man. 10 yrs ago, a 60 yr was ready to jump of a bridge. Many did. If you’re retired, and you rode that out, you’re still a hero. With dividends tripled your money from the bottom. Maybe more.

When all the dentists at my gym start slamming their lockers and cursing im going to have to Laugh my ass off. There is no such thing as free money.


Let greed get them I don’t care. They could take advice from real traders, risk managers, phd’s, but instead some ass clown with no experience gives them derby tickets and golf balls and they hand them their 5 mil.

I’ll probably die driving a snow cat off a trail, or freeze to death, but I’ll take that before ever joining that circle jerk.


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[4matic]

I guess you're not buying Cathie Woods' conclusion that Target's retail losses show that inflation is declining.

I’m with her on this one. Deflationary forces will return. That’s why I went long bonds of many flavors.

[Bunion 2020]

OK now I AM being a little bit of a dick but RE: 10 years ago....

And overall, 2012 was a good year for stocks: The Dow was up 7.3 percent for 2012, its fourth straight year of gains; the S&P 500 climbed 13 percent, its best year since 2009; and the tech-heavy Nasdaq index surged 16 percent.

But I get your point.

[dunfree]

Dude, when it comes to money, you’ve got to be A political.

I’ve said it many times before, anything that comes is the result of the last 6-7 presidents. Printing money, giving away money.

I’m no economist, but sooner or later a broken clock is right once in a day.


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much, aren’t you being political? Check out inflation globally. Its up most everywhere. Is that the fed printing money? Or China and it’s now certifiably insane zero Covid policy fucking up supply in the worlds factory? Or a huge global shift from services to consumption that’s now being reversed, slowly? Or all of it?

Not disagreeing that lots of money went into trash and propped up trash (crypto, the spac boom, Tesla) just that it’s not even or systemic. And tired of hearing people with $70k bought in pandemic pickups bitching about $4 gas

[4matic]

QT

There are two parts of QT. Roll off and selling. Most of the Fed balance sheet is in one to five year maturities so most of that can roll off. The bonds they choose to sell can be sold at auction just like a treasury auction. With rates where they are there will be demand. Trillions in money markets, insurance companies that are required to buy.

Supply chain inflation will resolve. I wouldn’t be surprised if the ex food and energy number goes negative in the next twelve months.

In fact, it behooves the Fed to talk rates up so they can sell what they need too.

Imo, rates move back lower, especially if stocks continue to struggle.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/relea...urrent/h41.pdf

[NakedShorts]

I think you are missing the bigger picture 4matic. Governments have no ability to pay their piles back. The game of borrowing and never planning to pay back is OVER.

Welcome to the grind!

[4matic]

I think you are missing the bigger picture 4matic. Governments have no ability to pay their piles back. The game of borrowing and never planning to pay back is OVER.

Welcome to the grind!

Let me guess? Gold!!

[dunfree]

Supply chain inflation will resolve. I wouldn’t be surprised if the ex food and energy number goes negative in the next twelve months.

only if demand craters - diversifying the supply chain from china will take longer than 12 months for some sectors. Lots of corps looking for a plan b asap

[4matic]

only if demand craters - diversifying the supply chain from china will take longer than 12 months for some sectors.

Double ordering microchips. Always a boom bust cycle.

Look at all the retailers. Starting to be a theme.

“Ross Stores fell more than 18% after the retailer posted first-quarter revenue that was below analyst expectations. The company’s earnings per share and same-store sales guidance for the second quarter also came in below estimates. “Following a stronger-than-planned start early in the period, sales underperformed over the balance of the quarter,” CEO Barbara Rentler said.”

On top of this now you have asset prices cratering with higher rates and fuel costs. Demand hit a wall.

[4matic]

When China started locking down massive port cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen to prevent the spread of COVID-19, fears mounted that maritime supply chain disruptions would get even worse. That hasn’t happened, says Gene Seroka, the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, America’s biggest port by container volume.

“The ships leaving Asia, and particularly in the Shanghai region, have shown to be at about 40 departures every week, which is about where we thought it would be,” said Seroka. “And now, eight weeks into the COVID lockdown, we’re not seeing any slowdown.”

Plus, port bottlenecks easing. Gone soon

https://www.audacy.com/kywnewsradio/...t-to-disappear

[4matic]

Container rates dropping

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/sk...k-to-earth/amp

[dunfree]

When China started locking down massive port cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen to prevent the spread of COVID-19, fears mounted that maritime supply chain disruptions would get even worse. That hasn’t happened, says Gene Seroka, the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, America’s biggest port by container volume.

“The ships leaving Asia, and particularly in the Shanghai region, have shown to be at about 40 departures every week, which is about where we thought it would be,” said Seroka. “And now, eight weeks into the COVID lockdown, we’re not seeing any slowdown.”

Plus, port bottlenecks easing. Gone soon

https://www.audacy.com/kywnewsradio/...t-to-disappear

they didn’t sell a single fucking car in Shanghai in April. Manufacturing is way down.

[NakedShorts]

Let me guess? Gold!!

Gold may not work like it once did. It is to expensive today to serve as a medium for barter. Silver may work better for that. Assets will eventually protect us. They do in crazy times if they are good. If it gets real real bad then the only thing that matters is food so let's no go there.

[4matic]

they didn’t sell a single fucking car in Shanghai in April. Manufacturing is way down.

What’s the hurry for USA now that demand has cratered? All that extra ordering is going to cause widespread price cuts. Just wait till the layoffs hit.

[dunfree]

What’s the hurry for USA now that demand has cratered? All that extra ordering is going to cause widespread price cuts. Just wait till the layoffs hit.

lol

[4matic]

What if inflation really is transitory? All this hand wringing could be completely misplaced.

[dunfree]

What if inflation really is transitory? All this hand wringing could be completely misplaced.

target said luggage sales up 50% yoy. Demand for what.

[LeeLau]

Been dabbling into buying a bit more dividend yields via cash secured puts.

T ENB TTE are the targets

For the Yolo portfolio, sold some SHOP and ARKK puts too. Not too much as I have lots of tech. Sold at 350 and 40.

Turned some TIPS into BTC

Edit. Covered MULN RIVN PTON BYND to take profits. Still stuck short RSX as Russians are slow to allow that ETF to liquidate

[4matic]

target said luggage sales up 50% yoy. Demand for what.

Airlines are booked for most of the summer and I Suspect most of those fares were booked before the increases. After the summer season we’ll see. The Easy Jet CEO is not clear after summer.

[RoooR]

much, aren’t you being political? Check out inflation globally. Its up most everywhere. Is that the fed printing money?

Most central banks printed money. And the fiscal stimulus was inflationary. That's the point of stimulus. But it was certainly better than the alternative.