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  1. #11401
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    Jun 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkiCougar View Post
    many are predicting that but I seriously doubt it.

    in the past month it's been a daily parade of companies going bankrupt, terrible economic reports and each week another 3 million jobless(or more), yet the s+p hovers between 2800 and 3000 like magic(or the fed having poured trillions in).

    very doubtful anyone's one day terrible earnings report changes that. best bet imo is the next gdp report. even though the predictions are already historically bad and any beating them will be taken as good news; when you see a 25% drop in gdp for a quarter; that's going to be a bucket of cold water.
    So we'll have to wait till July.
    What are the GDP predictions ... how much does all this affect overall economic production?

  2. #11402
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    June quarterly expiration is the front month now and it’s a long month with 20 trading days left. Recall that the March fireworks were almost entirely on quarterly expiration week regardless of news. Volatility premium is still high considering where the indexes are.

    Risk is coming back to currency. Yuen/$ is near its multi year low so there could be trouble with EM currency and the HK dollar peg.
    Wonder also where OIL is going to stand come end of month. If like last month, a lot of industry is affected.

  3. #11403
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
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    Squaw valley
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    4,638
    Looks like oil consumption is coming back and supply is a lot lower.

    Probably a lot more people will drive instead of taking public transportation, worldwide.

    But on the other hand, more people will be working from home permanently.

    I'm long oil stocks

    Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

  4. #11404
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
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    12,609
    Quote Originally Posted by rod9301 View Post
    Looks like oil consumption is coming back and supply is a lot lower.

    Probably a lot more people will drive instead of taking public transportation, worldwide.

    But on the other hand, more people will be working from home permanently.

    I'm long oil stocks

    Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk
    Far less people flying though, not sure how that'll balance out with drivers, but people will be taking shorter trips. You ain't driving to Hawaii.

  5. #11405
    Join Date
    May 2016
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    3,581
    Quote Originally Posted by Name Redacted View Post
    Far less people flying though, not sure how that'll balance out with drivers, but people will be taking shorter trips. You ain't driving to Hawaii.
    According to one breakdown I saw, gasoline for cars accounts for 45% of US oil consumption, while jet fuel is about 8%. That was for 2017, so pre-covid numbers.

  6. #11406
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
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    12,609
    Quote Originally Posted by billyk View Post
    According to one breakdown I saw, gasoline for cars accounts for 45% of US oil consumption, while jet fuel is about 8%. That was for 2017, so pre-covid numbers.
    Interesting. I guess we should all get our own jets then.

  7. #11407
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
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    the ham
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    13,370
    Typically, global oil consumption by transportation mode breaks down to something in the neighborhood of 50% cars, 25% trucks, 10% air, 10% ships, and 5% rail.

    I'm long oil too.


    edit: billy beat me to it

    And I'll add that the numbers are fluid due to China and India.

  8. #11408
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
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    North Vancouver/Whistler
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    13,985
    Quote Originally Posted by Ted Striker View Post
    Typically, global oil consumption by transportation mode breaks down to something in the neighborhood of 50% cars, 25% trucks, 10% air, 10% ships, and 5% rail.

    I'm long oil too.


    edit: billy beat me to it

    And I'll add that the numbers are fluid due to China and India.
    I'm long the one oil major preserving dividends (XOM) and USL. Otherwise the long term prospects for the sector as a whole are downward. But imo majors will do well

  9. #11409
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    Mar 2008
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    Long term yes, the end is coming. But how long until the slide is the question. If C-19 is no longer an issue in a year or two, there's still nothing replacing oil.

    And when I say long, I mean I won't take profits on current market fluctuations. Three, five, ? years from now, I might change my tune.

  10. #11410
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    Feb 2005
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    North Vancouver/Whistler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ted Striker View Post
    Long term yes, the end is coming. But how long until the slide is the question. If C-19 is no longer an issue in a year or two, there's still nothing replacing oil.

    And when I say long, I mean I won't take profits on current market fluctuations. Three, five, ? years from now, I might change my tune.
    Agreed. I want buy, forget and tradable options to sell covered calls against a dividend. I also want USD exposure. Also a big fan of biggest ie last one standing hence XOM. If Aramco were listed on a Noram exchange I might have gone there instead.

    Hedging a bit though by being aggressively short CHK (along with what looks everyone else in the world)

  11. #11411
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    Mar 2008
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    the ham
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    CHK: what a riches to rags story that is! Circling the drain at this point. I missed the boat on that one, but you should be looking really good.

  12. #11412
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    Aug 2016
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    Quote Originally Posted by rod9301 View Post
    Probably a lot more people will drive instead of taking public transportation, worldwide.
    im skeptical of this because there just ain’t the space.

  13. #11413
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    Sep 2006
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    8,242
    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    im skeptical of this because there just ain’t the space.
    A lot of people can't afford a car. And I'm guessing, 40 million unemployed will have problems paying bills for food and rent, let alone putting gas in the tank.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  14. #11414
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    Dec 2003
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    funland
    Posts
    5,250
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	returntogreatness.jpg 
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    brrrrrrrrrrrrr

  15. #11415
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    Sep 2006
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    8,242
    ^^^^Irony? based on all the partying going on sans masks and social distancing, I gather people will be dying to get on planes real soon.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  16. #11416
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    Feb 2005
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    North Vancouver/Whistler
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    Covered LK. Started HTZ short via puts. Puts are nice and liquid.

    Added some CHK calls just in case this market gets frothy or a shooting war is started

  17. #11417
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    Dec 2003
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    funland
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    Covered LK. Started HTZ short via puts. Puts are nice and liquid.

    Added some CHK calls just in case this market gets frothy or a shooting war is started
    will the indexes go up or down if we get a shooting war??

  18. #11418
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    Feb 2005
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    North Vancouver/Whistler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lone Star View Post
    will the indexes go up or down if we get a shooting war??
    Probably to the Moon. I've been a LMT long for 5 years so that'll print $


    Icahn just took it lubeless on HTZ exiting his position
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carl-...213205837.html

  19. #11419
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    Mar 2006
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    19,810
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    Icahn just took it lubeless on HTZ exiting his position
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carl-...213205837.html
    That ones probably in IEP

  20. #11420
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    Feb 2005
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    HTZ now has borrows. Buying puts, selling calls trying to construct short synthetically.

    Got bought in on CHK again. Will look at reestablishing position for July bond payments

  21. #11421
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    Feb 2005
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    HTZ position constructed. Spread of June puts and calls. OOTM 2.5c sold with a decent premium to keep avg cost of the puts down. Some July calls bought just in case HTZ miraculously goes to the moon

    Here's the buyers.

    And https://robintrack.net/symbol/HTZ

    HTZ NorAm declared Ch11. The assets (cars) are pledged as security so will be dumpster - sold. The international arms are seeking Ch11 equivalents. There is a ladder of debt but that's fairly standard. In order of priority bank, specific collateral, 2L, junior then last commons. It's unusual for commons (or calls) to retain so much value going into delist or Ch11.

    The Robinhood shareholdings may explain some of that
    Name:  Screenshot_20200528-082438_Reddit.jpeg
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    Last edited by LeeLau; 05-28-2020 at 02:08 PM.

  22. #11422
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    Sep 2006
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    Trump supposedly is going to be doing a presser tomorrow on China. Seems like Trump wants to poke the dragon again. Should be good times for the world's markets.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  23. #11423
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    Mar 2006
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    Beaverton, OR
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    1,337
    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    Trump supposedly is going to be doing a presser tomorrow on China. Seems like Trump wants to poke the dragon again. Should be good times for the world's markets.
    I think you must of missed this news:

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-h...ay-2020-05-28/

  24. #11424
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    Oct 2003
    Location
    Looking down
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    50,491
    Yeah, anything but acknowledging just cruising by 100000 deaths. And counting.

  25. #11425
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    Sep 2006
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    8,242
    Quote Originally Posted by sirbumpsalot View Post
    I think you must of missed this news:

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-h...ay-2020-05-28/
    No, saw that. Trump has just been waving his tiny stick, and Friday he's going to probably come out with what "sanctions" are being imposed.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

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