Is the stock market going to tank?

[Brock Landers]

Kinda. The value of your call will change depending on the time until expiration and how close you are (or how close you are getting) to the strike. You can trade the option whenever you want and profit (or take a loss)

[pureantigravity]

CBC Radio - Ideas program.
"Mark Carney says post-pandemic 'bump' not enough for smooth recovery"

Listened to part I and II last night. Very very interesting. Highly recommend for anyone that wants higher-level economic insight and perhaps even long term investing ideas and perspectives. They aren't short but they are a very good listen.

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/mark-...very-1.5922995

Mark Carney is the 2020 Reith Lecturer, the BBC’s flagship lecture series. In his lectures entitled, 'How We Get What We Value,' he argues the worlds of finance, economics, and politics have too often prioritized financial values, over human ones. The future depends on reversing that shift. In lecture one, he addresses the changing nature of value — and how we've come to equate 'value' to what is profitable.

BBC Reith Lectures: Mark Carney, Part One

2020 BBC Reith Lecturer Mark Carney continues his lecture series entitled, ‘How We Get What We Value.’ In this episode, the former bank governor focuses on the 2008 financial crisis and the ongoing impact of the pandemic.

BBC Reith Lectures: Mark Carney, Part Two

In our final episode of Mark Carney’s 2020 BBC Reith Lectures, the economist and former governor of the Banks of England and Canada, focuses on how the ultimate test of a more fair economy will be how it addresses the growing climate crisis.

BBC Reith Lectures: Mark Carney, Part Three

[paulster2626]

Kinda. The value of your call will change depending on the time until expiration and how close you are (or how close you are getting) to the strike. You can trade the option whenever you want and profit (or take a loss)

Cool. Will check in every now and then. This is how I learn, I suppose.

It was cheap, I think. About the same as a day ticket to Whistler.

[mcsquared]

I just bought my first call ever. I still don't really know what it means but if BB.TO hits $17 before March 19 I think I win money?

Blackberry? What did you pay? $30? You purchased the right to buy 100 shares of that stock for $17 on or before close of business on March 19th. Break even on that investment is $17+Premium Paid. If it spikes or Implied Volatility spikes your call could go up in value. But likely you just donated money to somebody like Leelau.

[Ted Striker]

I'm just surprised blackberry is still a thing.

[LeeLau]

Blackberry? What did you pay? $30? You purchased the right to buy 100 shares of that stock for $17 on or before close of business on March 19th. Break even on that investment is $17+Premium Paid. If it spikes or Implied Volatility spikes your call could go up in value. But likely you just donated money to somebody like Leelau.

Paul is my customer. Although I actually sold the March 19 13C. Paul probably bought the 17C because it was dirt cheap (for a good reason)

[LeeLau]

Shorted some WKHS on pop to 18s based on this https://seekingalpha.com/news/366663...house-pushback


One member of the house said the USPS contract should be re-examined

[CovertM]

Shorted some WKHS on pop to 18s based on this https://seekingalpha.com/news/366663...house-pushback


One member of the house said the USPS contract should be re-examined

I fought GME FOMO all day and almost dipped back in when it dropped under $100. Alas I stayed strong. Have a ton of dry powder to sell puts (Likely $30-$50 strikes) on the way back down, at least that's what I am telling myself to feel better.

RIOT $90C are getting close to 90% profit and will likely pull those tomorrow, RIOT $40CSP is in trouble (3/26 expiry though). Have you branched out to MARA as well? I'm tinkering with the idea of exposure to both even though they are highly correlated. The theoretical potential of MARA seems high after reading the link you shared. Both seem great to hedge with options while things dip or stay flat.

About to be a bagholder of some EV shit that I thought CSPs were safe, unless we have a bounce back soon.

[LeeLau]

I haven't touched Mara. Am long MKTY HIVE and Btc itself. That's enough I figure

[CovertM]

I haven't touched Mara. Am long MKTY HIVE and Btc itself. That's enough I figure

Total clear of RIOT?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[LeeLau]

Total clear of RIOT?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Still in Riot. Avg price in low 22s and am happy to keep using it to harvest premium. I "feel" it will be bouncing back

[paulster2626]

Paul is my customer. Although I actually sold the March 19 13C. Paul probably bought the 17C because it was dirt cheap (for a good reason)

Was it cheap? I honestly have no idea - I view this single call purchase as an investment in education, nothing more. It's not an educated trade, it's not backed by anything relevant.

I do believe BB can be a decent long-term investment though. They are one of the single largest patent holders in the world, or at least in Canada. They no longer are a phone company, they are a data acquisition and encryption company, and have partnered with AWS and are working with car manufacturers on the collection of data from said vehicles. BB has the potential to be a big player in the next 2-5 years.

If meme stock hits then I win small lottery. And I have no problem tossing a hundred bucks to Lee. This ain't the boomer account, it's the fuckaround account.

[Brock Landers]

That’s the only way you fully learn options. By doing. Remember, the time component (we’ll call it theta) is a motherfucker and value erodes from this component faster and faster as you approach expiry.

[paulster2626]

That’s the only way you fully learn options. By doing. Remember, the time component (we’ll call it theta) is a motherfucker and value erodes from this component faster and faster as you approach expiry.

It's already gone down significantly! This is fun!!

[LeeLau]

It's already gone down significantly! This is fun!!

That option I sold my customers also dropped a lot (60% since I sold it) because of theta ( what Brock said) but also because volatility and price of underlying dropped. It's a cheap education

[CovertM]

It's already gone down significantly! This is fun!!

I asked Lee a while back about resources for learning more about options and he thankfully steered me into the same direction, just do it.

In the last month I've learned more about options (and other market nuances) from just being an active participant than I ever could from a book. I should've just traded options to get ready for my licensing exams back in the day. It's funny how your brain just switches and you almost just start "thinking" in options, similar to learning another language.

Cheap education for sure! I've gotten burned a couple times and quickly bought back an option that was ITM only to see it expire OTM and lose profits. So far only selling and not getting too sophisticated with strategies, but learning a ton.

Closed a bunch of CC today on PLTR and RIOT that were weeks out from expiry but already 80-90% profit so took them off the table. Sold GME puts @ $40, hope it takes off again next week and I can close early, but no issue jumping back in at $40.

[Lawless]

Yeah, CC's and CSP's are not really sexy, but you can build wealth with them over time. I sold CSP's on both RIOT and PLTR this month that were well OTM and still returning almost 6%. That adds up month after month.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[mcsquared]

Hey Leelau, do you ever sell puts on stocks you are shorting? This is new territory for me but it is basically the same as covered calls right? I am shorting Wayfair for.... reasons. Of course, it jumped up as soon as I shorted. Sold 2 OTM puts to basically break even. Only thing making me nervous is I am not 200 shares short. But the delta is in my favor. Am I going to blow up?

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[LeeLau]

Hey Leelau, do you ever sell puts on stocks you are shorting? This is new territory for me but it is basically the same as covered calls right? I am shorting Wayfair for.... reasons. Of course, it jumped up as soon as I shorted. Sold 2 OTM puts to basically break even. Only thing making me nervous is I am not 200 shares short. But the delta is in my favor. Am I going to blow up?

I do. I often buy out of money calls for some protection and then sell puts. I did that for NKLA before the lockup expiration because one PR could rocket the stock so I wanted to be semi-shielded. NKLA was also trading sideways at about 25 - 30 when I shorted it and I wanted to generate income from it to offset the cost of buying the calls. I therefore sold 15P for a couple of months. When GM confirmed it was cancelling its deal and the lockup expired NKLA tanked below 15 and I then covered.

[pureantigravity]

Just put it in an S&P500 fund, right?
Gains in each from 1964 - 2020
S&P500:____ 23,454%
Berkshire:_ 2,810,526%

[MontuckyFried]

[LeeLau]

Added more WKHS short on expected terrible earnings via short 16C.

Sold RIOT 55C and 60C

Started small SOS short

[CovertM]

Added more WKHS short on expected terrible earnings via short 16C.

Sold RIOT 55C and 60C

Started small SOS short

Are you still trying to take profit from RIOT?

I closed my $90CCs for good profit and rolled out and down to the $80 strike.

Couple questions for you or Brock and folks who have done this for a while: Do you try and time when you place your trades or just make a decision and go? For example I woke up and saw green everywhere and knew I would be selling CCs today. But now that things have continued to move upwards, it would have behooved me to wait until later today to sell calls. Too small of a difference to worry about? Or too much guessing on progress maintaining throughout the day and can easily go either way?

Also, after about a month I've tracked my trades and all the necessary data. I'm sitting at about 56% profit from Gross proceeds brought in. Should I be shooting for higher? I know when to take profits can be personal, but wondering what a good close rate is. I got absolutely torched on a few plays from the get go where I quickly realized patience is your friend. (eg: BTC PLTR $38C 2/26, paid over double my proceeds to close and it would've expired just fine had I waited)

[LeeLau]

Re RIOT - I got assigned on CSPs at 45. I am trying to take profits on that by selling the RIOT I'm thus long by selling the 55Cs. I also sold some 60Cs on which I hope to n,ot get assigned. I'll worry about that more towards the end of the week on expiration ie whether to cover or roll. I'm letting half the RIOT run without selling covered calls on it because I "feel" this price spike has momentum and I'd rather not stress out over getting perfect fills on CCs

If my profit is 80% + I usually start looking to take the profit. I often cover even at a nickel due to pin risk on the higher IV stock. I usually let my call or puts simply expire on the boomer lower IV stock as i feel pin risk is lessened (unless there's something whacky pending on expiration like an earnings call or triple witching etc).

For higher IV stock I sell puts as it drops and almost always set my price at a nickel or so outside the bid/ask spread where i want to fill; letting the puts come to me. I do the inverse for covered calls. I take the approach that if I don't fill that day that it wasn't meant to be. For me, thetagang is not really trading in the sense that people think of the frenetics of day trading. It's a few fills to get allocation then a waiting game.

Finally for high IV stocks I find that if I'm in danger of getting assigned and I don't feel like rolling (for whatever reason) then I'll let it happen. After all that's my max profit on the premium. I'll then sell CSPs at an appropriate price I think will let me repurchase the underlying if I still believe in the core underlying

Hope that helps

[CovertM]

Re RIOT - I got assigned on CSPs at 45. I am trying to take profits on that by selling the RIOT I'm thus long by selling the 55Cs. I also sold some 60Cs on which I hope to n,ot get assigned. I'll worry about that more towards the end of the week on expiration ie whether to cover or roll. I'm letting half the RIOT run without selling covered calls on it because I "feel" this price spike has momentum and I'd rather not stress out over getting perfect fills on CCs

If my profit is 80% + I usually start looking to take the profit. I often cover even at a nickel due to pin risk on the higher IV stock. I usually let my call or puts simply expire on the boomer lower IV stock as i feel pin risk is lessened (unless there's something whacky pending on expiration like an earnings call or triple witching etc).

For higher IV stock I sell puts as it drops and almost always set my price at a nickel or so outside the bid/ask spread where i want to fill; letting the puts come to me. I do the inverse for covered calls. I take the approach that if I don't fill that day that it wasn't meant to be. For me, thetagang is not really trading in the sense that people think of the frenetics of day trading. It's a few fills to get allocation then a waiting game.

Finally for high IV stocks I find that if I'm in danger of getting assigned and I don't feel like rolling (for whatever reason) then I'll let it happen. After all that's my max profit on the premium. I'll then sell CSPs at an appropriate price I think will let me repurchase the underlying if I still believe in the core underlying

Hope that helps

Helps a ton, thanks!

Pin risk was a new one for me.