Is the stock market going to tank?

[shera]

178 million option contracts or $3 trillion in notional expire today! Largest ever. Expiration fireworks or are there $2 trillion in worthless calls coming off and there will be nada?


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Since BTC is showing unprecedented correlation to the nasdaq, can you please explain to me what all this means? Number go up on Monday?

[Cono Este]

Since BTC is showing unprecedented correlation to the nasdaq, can you please explain to me what all this means? Number go up on Monday?

It’s the dollar value of options that people have on the underlying and is now expiring.

My experience, from a galaxy far, far away, volatility rises as there is less hedging, and even an un winding of those positions. But lots of people obviously roll those positions too.

Anytime I was long a ton of premium, and it expired, only then the stupid stock would move.

Probably good to own feb or March premium.


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[4matic]

GME up 5% with an hour left in trade $107. What other reason than option leverage?

[4matic]

Even now SP500 is still almost 3% higher than it's september low.

18 month low on AMZN

[4matic]

Since BTC is showing unprecedented correlation to the nasdaq, can you please explain to me what all this means? Number go up on Monday?

It’s just another macro asset now. Subject to the whim of speculation, derivative, and sentiment albeit one with no earnings or intrinsic value.

[Cono Este]

GME up 5% with an hour left in trade $107. What other reason than option leverage?

Usually on ex, if there is a large open interest, a stock gets “pinned” at the strike. Whatever it is, it’s impossible to really guess what’s happening and why.


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[4matic]

Since BTC is showing unprecedented correlation to the nasdaq, can you please explain to me what all this means? Number go up on Monday?

With correlation so high, as you note, I think ARKK is a better speculation at this point if you’re bullish

[406]

Looks like my order for VOO at $406 filled yesterday :-), figured next in the high three hundreds. I'm guessing 10% drop off high and then back to up.

[dschane]

Graphic from yesterday's Fin. Times:

[Benny Profane]

Yup. How many times have the hucksters tried to bury Buffett?

[shera]

With correlation so high, as you note, I think ARKK is a better speculation at this point if you’re bullish

Interesting. I did buy some ARKK at $75. I'm toying with an idea - sell some GME on a dead cat bounce and buy ARKK on another leg down, hopefully in the 50s range. We'll see if the market cooperates.

I will continue buying bitcoin all the way down with any cash I can scrape together. No discretionary spending, tightening the belt!

[Stu Gotz]

Today seems like a whoosh! day.

[Cono Este]

Should I buy my crypto back for 1/2 what I sold it for? Or 1/3?


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[LeeLau]

Should I buy my crypto back for 1/2 what I sold it for? Or 1/3?

Another 10% and I'd buy some more. Don't know what its like in other regions in NorAm but RE assessments are up 30-40%. 2bd 2ba condo bought five years ago for 500k now going for 1.05m. It's surreal

[4matic]

SP500 took out the December low and bounced back. That should clean out a lot of trading longs.

AMZN down $1k from its high. Still has another $800 to go on the chart

[Bunion 2020]

We were overdue for some sort of a correction. Anyone care to call the bottom?

[4matic]

We were overdue for some sort of a correction. Anyone care to call the bottom?

I thinks it’s more important whether it’s another V bottom or a longer choppier period. Latter is my thought. Lots of individual executions still to come.

[Bunion 2020]

I watched my Financial Advisors latest video predicting the 1st Q of 22 and they tended to agree that we were in for a period of volatility that could last until Q3.

Time will tell. I have the cash on hand to dump into my Self employed 401K and my plan is to hold off as long as possible.

[LeeLau]

I don't smell panic yet bunion. Take that fwiw

[skaredshtles]

I watched my Financial Advisors latest video predicting the 1st Q of 22 and they tended to agree that we were in for a period of volatility that could last until Q3.

Time will tell. I have the cash on hand to dump into my Self employed 401K and my plan is to hold off as long as possible.

Trying to call the bottom is obviously a fool's errand - but you might consider buying in with "chunks" of cash. Just split up the next "x" months and buy in even amounts of $$ over that time period...

[JimmyCarter]

I don't smell panic yet bunion. Take that fwiw

Is this dependent on whether or not the Fed can be cowed into skipping rate hikes?

[skaredshtles]

Is this dependent on whether or not the Fed can be cowed into skipping rate hikes?

No way they're going to be able to do that, what with the frothing about inflation...

[LeeLau]

No way they're going to be able to do that, what with the frothing about inflation...

I agree there'll be rate hikes. But the question is whether and to what extent that's priced in.

Such a guessing game. I'm basically sitting on sidelines and thinking of taking short profits on Bynd and Pton. That's because I haven't the faintest and I'd imagine not many others do

[LeeLau]

Is this dependent on whether or not the Fed can be cowed into skipping rate hikes?

Skipping rate hikes is well nigh impossible at present

[4matic]

I don't smell panic yet bunion. Take that fwiw

Sentiment is still buy dips instead of sell rallies in everything but bonds.