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  1. #16301
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    MA
    Posts
    7,017
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    Agreed. I don't like the regulatory risk
    Not the usual garden variety regulatory risk either
    Decisions Decisions

  2. #16302
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    10,048
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    Not the usual garden variety regulatory risk either
    Had a client call me last week and ask how to value their equity stake in a mine that a foreign government had just seized…


    Me: do you want the long answer or should I just skip to “0”?

  3. #16303
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    MA
    Posts
    7,017
    Ugh. Which govt. there are some motherfuckers out there. Starting w China.
    Decisions Decisions

  4. #16304
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    10,048
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    Ugh. Which govt. there are some motherfuckers out there. Starting w China.
    One of your standard North African countries with a history of expropriation

  5. #16305
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Mountains, Trees, and a Big Blue Lake
    Posts
    677
    We can get a bounce but WE MUST HOLD THE LINE
    I'm cool with this, as long as you Kirkwood Bro Brah's stay away from Heavenly when 88 closes- TahoeBc

  6. #16306
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Where the sheets have no stains
    Posts
    22,015
    Larry Summers has the answer:

    Summers said in a speech on Monday from London there needs to be a lasting period of an unemployment rise to contain inflation — either, a one year spike to 10%, two years of 7.5% unemployment, or five years of 6% unemployment.

    Put a different way, Summers is calling for the unemployed rolls to swell to roughly 16 million from just under 6 million in May.

    President Joe Biden said he spoke with Summers on Monday, though he said a U.S. recession can be avoided.

    The way Summers framed the numbers suggests he’s talking about what’s known as the Sacrifice Ratio, which is the link between unemployment and inflation. According to Jason Furman, the former chair of President Obama’s Council of Economics Advisers, in the 25 years before the pandemic, the Sacrifice Ratio has been six percentage points — meaning one year of a 6 percentage point jump in unemployment, or two years of a 3 percentage point increase in the jobless rate, would be required to knock down inflation by a full percentage point.
    I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.

    "Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"

  7. #16307
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    MA
    Posts
    7,017
    Not that he’s wrong but when you’re fed chair I’m not sure Summers answer works. Dual mandate and all.
    Decisions Decisions

  8. #16308
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    Base of LCC
    Posts
    1,619
    Price stability and full employment

    Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

  9. #16309
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    Base of LCC
    Posts
    1,619
    Right now the Fed has hit it's mark on one but missed it's mark on the other

    Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

  10. #16310
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
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    关你屁事
    Posts
    9,504
    Quote Originally Posted by Bunion 2020 View Post
    Larry Summers has the answer:
    So, pain for poor people. Man, wonder how the millions unemployed will feel about their buying power?

  11. #16311
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Where the sheets have no stains
    Posts
    22,015
    Meh, they didn't want to work anyway. People are just lazy. Give em a couple of years in breadlines and they will be glad to go back to the sweatshop for 6 bucks an hour.
    I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.

    "Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"

  12. #16312
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    At the beach
    Posts
    19,061
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    Not that he’s wrong but when you’re fed chair I’m not sure Summers answer works. Dual mandate and all.
    And Larry Summers can go suck a bag of dicks. I never liked that guy or his thought process.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  13. #16313
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    8,303
    Quote Originally Posted by F#*k you cat View Post
    Price stability and full employment
    So...supply. Shocking to learn that a bunch of money guys don't know how to make anything. Shocking.

  14. #16314
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    the ham
    Posts
    13,343
    Quote Originally Posted by Bunion 2020 View Post
    Meh, they didn't want to work anyway. People are just lazy. Give em a couple of years in breadlines and they will be glad to go back to the sweatshop for 6 bucks an hour.
    Some will end up in prisons producing ~2 bil worth of goods & services for 60 cents/hour. Merkia!

  15. #16315
    Join Date
    Mar 2019
    Posts
    2,100
    Quote Originally Posted by Bunion 2020 View Post
    Larry Summers has the answer:
    How about a federal jobs guarantee to boost our productive capacity to end the supply chain issues causing inflation instead throwing people into a wood chipper to reduce inflation?

  16. #16316
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    MA
    Posts
    7,017
    Quote Originally Posted by mcphee View Post
    How about a federal jobs guarantee to boost our productive capacity to end the supply chain issues causing inflation instead throwing people into a wood chipper to reduce inflation?
    That’s inflationary. The supply CHAIN issues are working themselves out. A lot of the issues now are pure supply. Not enough of stuff.
    Decisions Decisions

  17. #16317
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
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    关你屁事
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    9,504
    And the fed working to destroy demand will resolve those supply issues, yes, with some byblow of pain and misery.

    id say the money people don’t know or care how stuff is made, and show no signs of giving a fuck. The underlying issues will get worse, not better

  18. #16318
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Squaw valley
    Posts
    4,637
    If anybody has gazprom adrs, you can now open an account at gazprombank by email, then have your broker transfer the shares to them, she you will get ordinary Russian shares. Which have a great dividend.
    Ask me how i know.

    And if you own other Russian adrs, you can transfer them also, but only after a trip to Moscow to identify yourself.

    Again, ask me how i know.

    Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

  19. #16319
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,804
    GSCI is 10% off it’s recent high. It’s still up 40% yoy but only slightly above its pre-war price.

  20. #16320
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Behind the Zion Curtain
    Posts
    4,874
    Spent too much cash buying EPD and MMP on the dips, don’t have enough to sell XOM puts anymore. Gonna try to move over into selling puts on MRO, it’s down steeply the last few days. I’ll watch the pre-market tomorrow morning and see what I think I can get away with.

    Put in an order to buy 90 more shares of GGPI, barely under closing. That’ll give me 100 to go along with my 100 warrants. Shareholder vote tomorrow to merge the SPAC, should start trading under a new ticker by the end of week. Still holding those, Lee?

    Set another “if I’m buying stock I should buy a share of AAPL order”, set it at $133, doubt it fills. Set a SOFI $5 Jul 8 put order at .20, I’m ok with grabbing more at that price.

    That’ll still leave me a bit of cash to play with, a part of me wants to throw it all in and a part of me says chill…

  21. #16321
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Behind the Zion Curtain
    Posts
    4,874
    GGPI order somehow filled pre-market, 90 shares at $9.60. That worked out well, merger approved, stock up 18% on the day. It starts trading as PSNY on Friday.

    Sold a $22.50 July 1 put on MRO for $93. Coulda bought it back for a $30 profit a few hours later, decided I’d rather have the shares at that rate. It tailed down as the day went on, will see what tomorrow brings…

    SOFI put and AAPL buy didn’t fill. AAPL buy is GTC, letting the SOFI put stay expired. If MMP or EPD are cheap at opener I’m going to grab 20 more MMP and probably 100 more EPD.

    I know I should diversify from the pipelines, but I can’t help myself.

  22. #16322
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    13,964
    Bob. I still have GGPI. My avg was crap in the mid 12s and I dipped in more to get it down to the (edit) high 11s. A bit nervous about the deSPAC because the market is so bad
    Last edited by LeeLau; 06-22-2022 at 09:18 PM.

  23. #16323
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,804
    August WTI is the only month over $100 now

    20 month low in copper.

    Corn and Wheat at risk for much larger declines.

  24. #16324
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,804

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Xpeng, $XPEV has an average analyst price of $280. Trading at $30. Watched a review on the p7 that sells for $35k. Impressive package.

    Another interesting stock is JOBY trading at $5. It’s well capitalized

    https://www.jobyaviation.com

    https://app.dealroom.co/companies/joby_aviation

  25. #16325
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,804

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    2y rate crashes back below 3%. Down 50bp from its recent high. 10y on the verge. 3% is support for the 10y so I’d like to see a close or three below. At this point an aggressive Fed move will flatten the curve.

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