Is the stock market going to tank?

**Bromontana** · 07-20-2016, 10:04 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

I don't know. A lot of people are trying to find the next Apple or Facefuck, but all they get is Tesla and Amazon and Twitter and Pandora and all the other tech brands that just enrich a very few while never showing a profit. Fun to watch, but, those geeks aren't fooling me. Now that we seem to be in a permanent super slow growth world economy, where's the expansion to increase revenues? China is a pathetic minefield for these guys, if any of them are even allowed into the country.

I bought BIDU today. TSLA I wouldn't touch with Deebased's money. AMZN = solid intrinsic value though price is up in the stars now. TWTR = solid brand value and platform durability imo; all that matters is they stay relevant and don't go Solar City with leverage (current ratio for TWTR is 8.7).

Very much agree with Brock's reasoning on determining value. More important than any 10-Q or similar is the ability of a company to keep its business model relevant. AMZN should be bigger than AAPL long term. If you have an attractive product that's scalable with somewhat low overhead and low debt burden, the reward can be multiples relative to risk of 1. That's the best scenario any investor or speculator can ask for, right?

**Benny Profane** · 07-20-2016, 10:14 PM

Investors and speculators are not the same.

**Bromontana** · 07-20-2016, 10:35 PM

Call it what you want. Risk of ruin is something everyone has to avoid. We just have central banks now that can provide synthetic demand to prop up the perma longs. Many investors have been utterly wiped out in prior economic or market cycles.

*cough* bill miller *cough*

**Benny Profane** · 07-20-2016, 10:53 PM

Cough Warren Buffet cough

**shroom** · 07-20-2016, 11:00 PM

AMZN focuses on product/service quality and long term free cash flow. it's old school but they're building the fortress and I like it. also, if you're not an AWS customer [or aren't familiar with that world], you have no idea of their presence or how far ahead of the game they are in that world.

**peck257** · 07-20-2016, 11:00 PM

Two questions:

Why would you be out of TLSA? Very volatile to date and I can say I have made a lot of money buying and shorting with the cycles, however long term I believe in the business (10 year + horizon).

A lot of money has been made with AMZN. How can you justify the multiple and what is the catalyst to continue propelling them?

Will TGR become the best place for investment advice (Some very good stuff here).

**digitaldeath** · 07-20-2016, 11:14 PM

Check out @elonmusk's Tweet: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/...763245061?s=09

**Bromontana** · 07-20-2016, 11:26 PM

Originally Posted by peck257

Why would you be out of TLSA?

I'll use Elon's words:

I thought our chances of success were so low that I didn't want to risk anyone's funds in the beginning but my own. The list of successful car company startups is short. As of 2016, the number of American car companies that haven't gone bankrupt is a grand total of two: Ford and Tesla. Starting a car company is idiotic and an electric car company is idiocy squared.

RE: AMZN - It's a world domination play, not in a sinister way just business. TSLA is trying to innovate to become profitable and advance the electric industry: a lofty, worthy target. But AMZN has a strong core that can sustain lean times with reduced capex. TSLA doesn't have that luxury, elevated capex is essential to become profitable. Shooting the gap is requisite for survival.

**digitaldeath** · 07-21-2016, 09:14 AM

amazon doesnt do anything but exploit labor power and inelastic demand

oh they do cool computer farming i guess

**Brock Landers** · 07-21-2016, 10:19 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

... Pandora and all the other tech brands that just enrich a very few while never showing a profit.

Liberty disagrees. $15/share offer for Pandora.

**digitaldeath** · 07-21-2016, 05:34 PM

Here's why Twitter bout to blow up. Live streaming video with scrolling tweets

**babybear** · 07-21-2016, 05:41 PM

nice- because periscope was not working that well today. better to just integrate it.

**neufox47** · 07-21-2016, 06:05 PM

Originally Posted by Bromontana

I'll use Elon's words:

RE: AMZN - It's a world domination play, not in a sinister way just business. TSLA is trying to innovate to become profitable and advance the electric industry: a lofty, worthy target. But AMZN has a strong core that can sustain lean times with reduced capex. TSLA doesn't have that luxury, elevated capex is essential to become profitable. Shooting the gap is requisite for survival.

Yes, but the combustion engine has to die. If Tesla is the answer then it will go up 10's X today's price. If I bought Tesla I think it would be a multi-decade buy. I certainly wouldn't be using money I couldn't afford to lose though.

I don't own Tesla.

**digitaldeath** · 07-21-2016, 06:25 PM

Originally Posted by baby bear

nice- because periscope was not working that well today. better to just integrate it.

Ya I like periscope and all but it should be part of Twitter.

Wait until NFL SHITBALL on Twitter

**Bromontana** · 07-21-2016, 06:50 PM

Originally Posted by neufox47

Yes, but the combustion engine has to die. If Tesla is the answer then it will go up 10's X today's price. If I bought Tesla I think it would be a multi-decade buy. I certainly wouldn't be using money I couldn't afford to lose though.

I don't own Tesla.

Sure, speculative buy with potentially large upside. I don't look down on anyone that's long, it's just not my preference is all. It's certainly a worthwhile home for some speculative capital. For the record I hope they succeed along with solar city and propel an alt. energy boom.

**mcsquared** · 07-21-2016, 09:23 PM

Originally Posted by SkiCougar

I'm betting 1800 s+p(or lower) before September without breaking a sweat.

While we are all piling on DD for being, well, himself. This gem got ignored the first time around. Lulz.

**4matic** · 07-21-2016, 09:49 PM

Originally Posted by mcsquared

While we are all piling on DD for being, well, himself. This gem got ignored the first time around. Lulz.

SC has been negative for 8 years if you get my drift.

**Brock Landers** · 07-22-2016, 09:47 AM

Originally Posted by shroom

AMZN focuses on product/service quality and long term free cash flow. it's old school but they're building the fortress and I like it. also, if you're not an AWS customer [or aren't familiar with that world], you have no idea of their presence or how far ahead of the game they are in that world.

Missed this...AWS is basically going to run the earth in like 10 years. Though I could see headbutting between Google and AWS down the road, which will be interesting.

Originally Posted by peck257

Two questions:

Why would you be out of TLSA? Very volatile to date and I can say I have made a lot of money buying and shorting with the cycles, however long term I believe in the business (10 year + horizon).

A lot of money has been made with AMZN. How can you justify the multiple and what is the catalyst to continue propelling them?

Will TGR become the best place for investment advice (Some very good stuff here).

Tesla has been range bound but pretty fucking predictable right? jump in under 190, sell above 220, rinse repeat.

AMZN...you cant look at the multiple. Hard to do but that "E" is bullshit. Look at operating profit instead- these types of very high growth companies you need to figure what the growth rate and margins the "market" are figuring. If you think AMZN can beat that...its good short term. Longer term, how long can they grow and what new areas that I certainly haven't thought of will they jump into? Drones? I cant wrap my head around that shit, where they can possibly grow enough to exceed expectations. I think the catalyst to propel isn't necessarily anything they are currently doing. Same with AAPL...its something new right? First quarter revenues were up huge AND they improved margins. Blocking and tackling.

**4matic** · 07-22-2016, 09:59 AM

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Missed this...AWS is basically going to run the earth in like 10 years. Though I could see headbutting between Google and AWS down the road, which will be interesting.

I wouldn't count out IBM and MSFT with regard to cloud and related services.

**4matic** · 07-22-2016, 10:30 AM

JNK up in a weak oil market. Bullish.

**Bromontana** · 07-22-2016, 10:55 AM

kind of funny... global growth forecasts waning and a high yield bond tracker named JNK is coiling for a move up.

It's a great time to refrain from prescriptive macro-based trading.

**4matic** · 07-22-2016, 11:16 AM

Old tech leading higher. Bullish multiple expansion.

**Bromontana** · 07-22-2016, 11:57 AM

Intel/INTC looks to be coiling up right below long term resistance going back to the 2000 cycle.

Daily chart
Attachment 185312

20 year chart
Attachment 185313

**4matic** · 07-25-2016, 11:40 PM

TSLA charts turning up. Above $240 it runs.

**Benny Profane** · 07-26-2016, 06:29 AM

Originally Posted by neufox47

Yes, but the combustion engine has to die. If Tesla is the answer then it will go up 10's X today's price. If I bought Tesla I think it would be a multi-decade buy. I certainly wouldn't be using money I couldn't afford to lose thoug

I don't own Tesla.

Tesla won't have a monopoly on producing electric cars. There are others doing it right now. And they know how to build and market cars in large numbers.