Is the stock market going to tank?

**4matic** · 03-23-2020, 08:59 PM

Futures gonna lock limit up. Nikkei up 7%

**rideit** · 03-23-2020, 09:32 PM

Why do you think that is?

**Cono Este** · 03-23-2020, 09:58 PM

Originally Posted by The Reverend Floater

Late to this party and far from fluent in financial linguistics but what's the collectives' general thought on an index put on the S&P at 1800 with a dec 31 expiration as a protective hedge?

Too expensive. It won’t perform well. Better to just short a put, it’s exactly the same thing. Gets you long and puts you in the right side of implied volatility. But I’d wait a bit.

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**4matic** · 03-23-2020, 10:54 PM

Originally Posted by rideit

Why do you think that is?

Nervous shorts. Easy to get to lock with this level vol. futures used to wag the dog but now its much more complicated with etf’s and other derivatives

**rideit** · 03-23-2020, 11:15 PM

Well, once the news comes out that Trump had Fauci killed, the markets are gonna go nuts.

**bennymac** · 03-24-2020, 01:04 AM

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even fucking veggietales is pissed

**Benny Profane** · 03-24-2020, 05:09 AM

X

**Benny Profane** · 03-24-2020, 06:30 AM

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/buying-during-a-crisis/

**4matic** · 03-24-2020, 07:15 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/buying-during-a-crisis/

Same guy probably been pitching dollar cost averaging and buy for the long term. Change the narrative to fit the day. Stock salesman:

"The closer you bought to the bottom in the summer of 1932, the greater the long term benefit of that purchase."

**Cono Este** · 03-24-2020, 07:21 AM

It’s when people are forced to sell that it gets ugly. Not just in the near term bargain basement trading, but when people run out of money. Lose their jobs, or, have no job because they are retired. The funny money of the dentist/traders disappears and shit gets real.

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**Cono Este** · 03-24-2020, 07:29 AM

I think the big question here is are we going to go back into the Trump trading range, or do settle back into the pre Trump value range?

That’s the 64,000 question.

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**Cono Este** · 03-24-2020, 07:34 AM

If we did drift into a lower, pre Trump range, Vol would eventually come in. It could be a rare case of where being short puts and stock would work out. Scary proposition though shorting stock here, but if it goes up, it’s going to get crushed as well.
Buying puts and stock is definetly not the way to go.

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**ncskier** · 03-24-2020, 07:35 AM

Originally Posted by Lvovsky

yes they are. pretty bold proposal. as a taxpayer, I don't want my money to go to anyone's golden parachute.

How about 4 billion to NYC libraries?

https://twitter.com/RepJerryNadler/s...85010544852992

Why can’t people stick to the basics

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**4matic** · 03-24-2020, 07:45 AM

Originally Posted by ncskier

How about 4 billion to NYC libraries?

It's from the American Alliance of Museums. Art and culture has never been an important value to Republicans. Defunding NPR and NEA was a priority. Although WWE will probably get bailout money.

**ncskier** · 03-24-2020, 07:53 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

It's from the American Alliance of Museums. Art and culture has never been an important value to Republicans. Defunding NPR and NEA was a priority. Although WWE will probably get bailout money.

It’s turned into a wish list plain and simple. WWE included. Moral hazard of picking winners and losers.

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**Mazderati** · 03-24-2020, 08:13 AM

Bought VZ.

**kokomas** · 03-24-2020, 08:16 AM

yeah, thinking of selling puts on VZ, any idea why down? can't find any news

**iceman** · 03-24-2020, 08:18 AM

Through this whole thing they've been like a 1-company hedge fund, more often than not moving in the opposite direction of the market.

**up an down** · 03-24-2020, 08:20 AM

Originally Posted by kokomas

yeah, thinking of selling puts on VZ, any idea why down? can't find any news

Looks like a huge higher day.. Especially if Congress actually passes a bill.... Get in line early to get Dumps autograph.

**Sirshredalot** · 03-24-2020, 08:22 AM

Originally Posted by ncskier

It’s turned into a wish list plain and simple. WWE included. Moral hazard of picking winners and losers.

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Yes, definitely. But throwing money at state and local governments (including libraries, parks, schools, infrastructure, etc.) ought to be a no-brainer. Most state and local spending is pro-cyclical and there is no worry of "picking winners." You're just trying to avoid the drag of pro-cyclical state and local spending.

If Boeing wants to come hat in hand to Uncle Sam for cash, it ought to be under punitive terms. Punt senior management to the curb and have equity holders take a meaningful haircut.

Cheap money for Mom and Pop shops through the SBA? Sure. That's a different matter.

**up an down** · 03-24-2020, 08:23 AM

Originally Posted by iceman

Through this whole thing they've been like a 1-company hedge fund, more often than not moving in the opposite direction of the market.

Maybe also a fear of the possibility of dividend payment reductions or suspensions.

**4matic** · 03-24-2020, 08:24 AM

Originally Posted by kokomas

yeah, thinking of selling puts on VZ, any idea why down? can't find any news

Rates bottoming

**Mazderati** · 03-24-2020, 08:31 AM

Sometimes securities fall out of favor when Mr. Market sees greener grasses.

**Benny Profane** · 03-24-2020, 08:49 AM

Originally Posted by ncskier

It’s turned into a wish list plain and simple. WWE included. Moral hazard of picking winners and losers.

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I'd rather see cultural institutions that also attract billions in tourist cash survive than the oh so vital golf resort industry, which you know Munchin will give millions to if this ridiculous slush fund idea survives. His boss is all on this.

**ncskier** · 03-24-2020, 09:09 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

I'd rather see cultural institutions that also attract billions in tourist cash survive than the oh so vital golf resort industry, which you know Munchin will give millions to if this ridiculous slush fund idea survives. His boss is all on this.

Problem is we all have our pet projects. Don’t be surprised it also helps our beloved ski areas as well. I’m just saying supporting people is ok, picking winners and losers is ridiculous. Museums can close it their employees get extended unemployment. Instead it will be a slush fund same as wwe, Ford and Boeing. Just because one has perceived cultural value doesn’t make it any more wrong or right.

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